币界新闻择要 – 一月十一号

人民币贬值潮

China FX teller_0

据明报报道,很多市民希望避免自己在人民币贬值潮资产大缩水,国内不少地方纷纷出现挤兑潮。更有报道指出有市民透过过买入 .com 网域并在国外出售来合法转移资产到更保值的货币。

我猜应该没有中国人会认为人民币能够止跌持平。中国现在的外汇储备大概有3.3兆元,但是分析显示其中2.8兆元是其他负债的保证或抵押,加上每个月近一千亿的流逝资金和越趋严重的银行坏账。结论是 —— 中国没钱了。

海曼资本管理人认为,做空人民币是2016年的最佳的投资选项。自2008年全球金融危机后最大幅的信贷扩张终于开始对市场做成影响。他警告说,中国的计时炸弹就是其银行体系。国有银行被迫降低承保标准向没有盈利的中小企业贷款。不良贷款的上升,必须由中央政府通过银行体系吸收。他指出官方不良贷款率上升1.5%至到20%将会导致$3兆的亏损。

货币贬值政策和降息是唯一剩下的政策来挽救这场乱局。当市民开始感觉到就业机会减少和物价上涨,市民将寻找任何保值工具或把钱汇到国外。

比特币的价格以人民币报价作为主导市场,而近来比特币的溢价正在减少。在第一季度,预期波动上升和更多人民币资金流入比特币。迄今为止,大多数的价格波动是源自大额投资者。当两年半前的现金买家重返比特币,价格走势将无可想像。

比较有耐性的投资者可以选择开始囤积XBTH16和XBTM16这些远期的BitMEX期货合约以从高波动性和价格获利。

参考阅读材料:

中国资本市场事件表

比特币会对中国的外汇和股票市场作出反应。认真的投资者应该知道这些市场的主要开市和收市时间。

一下列出的是GMT+8中国时间

人行订立的跨行人民币价格

每个交易日的 9:15am.

CNY在岸交易时间

9:30am to 11:30pm

CHH离岸交易时间

24小时/5日

中国A股

9:15am – 9:25am竞价时段

9:30am – 11:30am 交易时间

1:00pm – 3:00pm 交易时间

参考资料

PBOC daily fixing

Live index prices from the Shanghai Stock Exchange

以比特币衍生的人民币

image (11)

我在研究XBTCNY, USDCNY,USDCNH的时候发现了一个非常有趣的关系,如果我们把XBTCNY除以XBTUSD,那么这会跟着离岸人民币的走势呢?(离岸人民币实际就是在岸人民币的引导指标,因为它较少受到央行的干预),我就此生成了以上的圖表,藍色為比特幣生成的人民幣價格減去離岸人民幣(右边),而紅色線則為比特币日价格变动(左边)。从此可见这两个指标的关系跟踪的很好。基于人民币继续贬值的预期,比特币在中国的价格相对外国是比较低的。

我建议做多中国比特币的溢价来对冲比特币价格的风险。售出BitMEX的周交割50倍杠杆期货并买入XBTCNY。同时XBT7D是溢价的,所以是正向套利交易。如果你没有人民币,比特币中国BTCC能够让你电汇美金并汇到在岸人民币去交易。

BitMEX 套利全攻略 – 第二课

24x10 - Bart

感谢各位参加了第一课的听众,第二课会在1月13日 上午11时 (GMT+8)开始

第二课内容

  • 期现套利
  • 波动套利

 第二课直播链接

第一课录影

第二课的幻灯片和试算表会在周三前透过我们的博客和通讯电邮发布

Hello Bitcoin: China Begins Actually Enforcing Capital Controls

chinese-invasion-australia-for-sale

Faced with a depreciating currency and an acceleration of elites running for the exit, China is actually beginning to enforce capital controls. The official individual FX limit is $50,000 per year. But for those with the right connections, RMB flowed out of China like water. The amount of illegal capital repatriation from China has been estimated in the trillions of USD. Now that is all changed. Xi Jinping is hell bent on transitioning the Chinese economy into one lead by domestic consumption rather than by investment. GDP growth has slowed, and at the same time the strengthening USD has forced the PBOC to allow the RMB to weaken.

Property markets in favoured jurisdictions have seen furious buying by cash rich Chinese. The Chinese hoard levitated property prices in Vancouver, Sydney, New York City, and parts of California. The explosive growth is about to come to an abrupt halt, if the PBOC has it way. They have instructed banks to begin enforcing the $50,000 limit and to look through the ultimate beneficiary account to determine if bundling of funds is occurring. [AFR]

The crackdown from Beijing has seen Chinese banks setting up watch lists for unusual transactions, according to one bank manager, who asked not to be named as he was not authorised to speak about the policy.

He said the operation was aimed at cracking down on a practice whereby family and friends of those wanting to purchase a property overseas all transfer US$50,000 into an overseas account. That’s the limit each Chinese individual is allowed to move out of the country each year.

The purchaser then pays back his friends and family in China and uses the money from the overseas account to put down a deposit on the property.

However, banks are now tracking the source of funds for overseas bank accounts that have received more than US$200,000 within 90 days, according to the bank manager, who works in Shanghai for one of the major state-owned banks.

“We have always had this policy but now it has been restated and is being enforced more strictly,” he said.

“In the past we could find a way around these rules but now all those ways have been blocked.”

“I’m sure this would be having an impact on overseas property purchases,” he said.

Sydney and Melbourne are starting to feel the pinch [AFR].

Chinese purchases of Australian property have dropped significantly in the past month, according to agents, as buyers struggle to shift money out of the country following Beijing’s move to tighten capital controls.

One Chinese agent said the latest efforts by the central government to avoid large capital outflows were having a “significant impact” on his business.

“It has affected 70 to 80 per cent of current transactions and some have already been suspended,” said the agent who asked not to be named.

The tighter foreign exchange rules are also set to impact the federal government’s relaunched Significant Investor Visa (SIV), which provides fast-tracked residency for those investing at least $5 million into Australia.

“I think it will be big, big trouble for the SIV program because the amount of money is just too large,” said one Shanghai-based adviser, who sells Australian property and advises wealthy clients on their migration plans.

Only seven SIV applications have been submitted since the new rules were introduced on July 1, which require investors to put their money into riskier assets such as venture capital and emerging companies.

The fall 2013 Bitcoin bubble was fuelled by speculation that Chinese investors would be able to send their capital abroad by using Bitcoin. The problem was the grey channels were by and large much cheaper and easier than using Bitcoin. Therefore the massive inflows never materialised. The situation is grossly different now. The PBOC is actively enforcing the controls and the avenues open to the Chinese are rapidly disappearing.

The big question for anyone attempting sell RMB / buy Bitcoin then sell Bitcoin / buy USD (or another G10 currency) is liquidity. I took data from Bitcoinity.org about trading volumes for BTCCNY and BTCUSD. For the Chinese exchanges I divided their reported volume by 2 because they double count trades. Over the past 30 days the average daily trading volume was 82,400 BTC. To minimise price impact, assume that you trade 30% in line with volume. At a BTCCNY rate of 1,500 CNY, that comes to a total of 51,180,000 CNY of Bitcoin that can be traded per day with minimal price impact. I did the same calculations for the top BTCUSD exchanges, and the amount is 39,366,600 CNY. Because you need convert RMB -> BTC -> USD, I assume that 39,366,600 CNY worth of BTC can be traded each day with minimal price impact.

Chinese people love property. It is one of the preferred vehicles in which park their cash abroad. The other benefit is they can ship their families off to obtain passports in better jurisdictions. The below table shows how many equivalent houses Chinese buyers could purchase each day using Bitcoin.

City Median House Price Equivalent Houses
Sydney 1,000,000 AUD 8.7
Arcadia California 1,084,500 USD 5.7
New York City 572,800 USD 10.79
Vancouver 900,592 CAD 9.1

According to the National Realtors Organisation, for the 12 months ending March 2014 Chinese people bought $22 billion in property in America. Per day that equates to roughly 368 million CNY, or over 9 days worth of Bitcoin trading. This happens each day, and this is just for America. Chinese will not all rush to use Bitcoin as a method of wealth transfer, but with no other options they will get creative. The largest Bitcoin exchanges globally are in China. In China, you can wire CNY to the exchange, buy Bitcoin, and remit Bitcoin outwards in under 30 minutes for 0 fee. The foundation is there, and now there is a real pain point. As the capital account of China deteriorates due to slowing global growth, a stronger USD, and competitive devaluation by their trading partners, the only way out may be Bitcoin.

Sources:

2014 Profile of International Buying Activity

Median house price in Sydney tops $1 million for first time

Arcadia Home Prices & Values

New York Home Prices & Values

Canada National Average Price Map

China Devalues Yuan, Bitcoin To Da Moon

In the August 10th Crypto Trader Digest, I predicted the PBOC would devalue the Yuan to regain export competitiveness. Less than 24 hours after hitting the press, the PBOC shocked the market with a 1.9% devaluation. Global macro will be tilted on its head now that the world’s largest export regime is actively engaging in currency debasement.

The RMB is one of the largest globally traded currencies and it’s importance in global capital flows cannot be underestimated. Bitcoin, which is a financial and speculative asset, will be affected as well. Chinese households are now faced with a very painful question, how to protect and grow their saved capital.

Stock market and real estate investments have soured. Households are unable to invest abroad due to capital controls (the elite always could, but I am talking about regular folks). Due to a depreciating Yuan, imported goods will become more and more expensive. They must find a way to convert their paper wealth into real assets that cannot be devalued by the central government. Alternative means of investing will become more and more prevalent. P2P loans, wealth management products, and crypto currency will be three alternative areas where Chinese households will rush to convert Yuan into some form of wealth preserving asset.

The PBOC stated this was a one off devaluation. If anyone believes that, I have a ghost city in China to see you. China is mercantilism on steroids. Kuroda-san’s BOJ printing press will now go into overdrive. Mario Draghi will have no choice but use the cover of Grexit to unlease Euro QE. Each successive devaluation by its exporting peers will be met with force from the PBOC. Chinese speculators recognise this, and they will begin selling and borrowing CNY to buy any risk assets they can get their hands on.

It is time to back up the truck and buy buy buy Bitcoin. The $40 fall from $300 is a blessing. Coins can now be bought at much cheaper levels. To obtain long exposure, buy BitMEX December 2015 futures, XBTZ15.