Two sides of the coin: the bifurcated near-future of money

 

A digital society requires digital cash. You hear the word cryptocurrency a lot. But there’s a very big difference between a truly decentralised cryptocurrency like Bitcoin and what could be called centralised ‘e-money.’

As Bitcoin today officially heads into its second decade of existence, this is a ripe moment to familiarise yourself with some of the fundamental changes in modern money, including the ways people store and transmit value, that I think you can expect to see in the near future

We Gave Them an Inch, Now They’re About to Take a Mile

The first type of new money I believe we’re going to see is centralised e-money. This descends directly from the current system, taking government (fiat) currency and updating it for the digital age. It’s a natural — and I imagine inevitable — synthesis of the existing central bank system and our increasingly corporatised economy.

The keystone phenomenon that makes e-money possible is the way in which we as a society have grown accustomed to handing over our entire private lives to corporations. We’ve done so in exchange for entertainment and convenience, and we’ve certainly received ample supplies of both. It’s only a small step now, however, to our accepting (or being forced to accept) the corporate issuance of money and the further diminution of privacy that comes with that.

The clearest glimpse into where e-money is heading is probably WeChat Pay, which has now practically eradicated cash in China. The WeChat Pay system works like this: using QR codes and mobile phones, merchants deduct credits from your WeChat wallet, which is connected directly to your bank account. Instantly, while standing at a market stall, Chinese renminbi (CNY) is debited from your account, and credited to the merchant’s account. They get their money, you take your dumplings, and the friction and annoyance of using physical cash evaporates.

As someone who travels around China frequently, I actually love WeChat Pay. However, as someone who built a career in banking and now makes his living in Bitcoin, I also know the privacy limitations of centralised payment systems.

The various mobile payment systems now offered by major players in different parts of the world differ in their details. But in some cases, they know almost everything about you: what goods and services you purchase, as well as where and when you purchase them, which can presumably be linked to all the other data they have on you.

At the same time, we’ve seen our governments in the West, when the spirit moves them, lean hard on our corporate friends to cough up our personal information. Unsurprisingly, the corporations tend to comply with these requests. We have also witnessed private sector payment networks and crowdfunding platforms kick people out for having too close an association with offending ideas or speech, or for being bad actors. Not all of this is necessarily unreasonable, but who gets to draw the line? They do.

Furthermore, monetarily, you can see where this leads: whether it happens gradually or suddenly, at some point central banks and governments, in accord with their nature, may start directing the monetary functions of corporations in a more hands-on way. The way they would do it, I expect, is by deputising commercial banks and large social media companies, who shall become nodes on a payment network, with the authority to participate in the e-money system and earn transaction fees.

Significantly, the payment network’s rules can be enforced instantly and flawlessly via code. The only place left in the system for inefficient or corruptible humans to participate will be at the apex of the network, where the authorities can issue credit directly to people, tax every transaction immediately, and determine who can and can’t be part of the network. In theory, your entire financial existence can be governed this way.

Thankfully, That’s Where Bitcoin Enters the Conversation

Although such a monetary system as I’ve just described may or may not be warehoused on a blockchain look-alike, make no mistake: it is centralised, top-down, and censored (meaning you can be barred from using it if you fall afoul of the centralised powers).

Bitcoin, by contrast, is decentralised, peer-to-peer, and censorship resistant. Bitcoin runs via a network of voluntary, independent, and self-interested actors, who neither demand nor require any favours or permissions; a few basis points in transaction fees is literally all they want from anyone — and all they’re allowed to take. And while the public address of any Bitcoin wallet, and its transaction history, are visible to all, no personally identifiable information is contained in any transaction.

Which means that Bitcoin, or something like it, is perhaps society’s best hope for a private form of electronic money. And privacy, I argue, is an important part of a well-functioning society. For moral and even psychological reasons, citizens deserve the ability to keep certain details about their lives to themselves.

To sum up: for a long time, physical cash has been the best form of money with respect to privacy. But armed with a more efficient and transparent form of e-money, government after government will gradually make physical cash obsolete. Sooner than you think, cash will not be an option for privacy, or for anything else. And private citizens will come to appreciate the inherent value of Bitcoin, as their ability to discreetly hold and transfer value evaporates once cash goes the way of the dodo.

Grounds for Optimism in General

Bitcoin is still very much an experiment. However, after 10 years of operation, the Bitcoin protocol has not been hacked — despite offering what’s effectively the biggest ‘bug bounty’ in software history. Bitcoin is an amazing achievement of disparate private individuals working together towards a common goal.

As I consider how a community of people collectively created an alternate monetary system, I am greatly optimistic about what other aspects of our global society we can improve through a collective, decentralised effort.

And I say this even in the face of the various centralising forces currently being marshalled: humanity’s bifurcated monetary future will be better than our monopoly monetary past, as some money becomes more convenient while other money becomes far more private.

BlockMEX STO

还记得 BlockMEX 吗?那家公司已经表现不佳好几年了。他们尝试了各种商业模式也没成功。 但这并不重要,风险投资公司继续投以大额资金,其估值继续上升。首席执行官现在有一个新想法。 让我们来听听他在最近的董事会会议是怎么说的。

 

比利( Billy )- 比利是该公司的首席执行官。他刚刚加入,因为前一个家伙被辞退了。公司的主要的风险投资人 The Blind Fund 辞退了前任首席执行官,并支持比利上位,因为他们认为比利能更好的带领公司走出困局。

 

凯撒索泽( Kaiser Soze )- The Blind Fund 的合伙人之一。

 

凯撒 – 比利,你觉得我们要做些什么来吸引客户?已经超过四年, BlockMEX 仍然零收入。你们需要想些新的模式。

 

比利 – 嗯,我有一个新主意。 ICO 是有毒的。这些项目是垃圾,监管机构讨厌它们。 你觉得证券型代币发行( STO )怎么样?

 

凯撒 – 你解释一下。

 

比利 – 好的,想象你想买某一房地产的一小部分。然后您可以交易属于您的少数权益,该权益由一个代币表示。

 

 

凯撒 – 恕我不够新潮,但这不就是房地产投资信托( REIT )吗? 世界上大多数股票市场都有这些产品。

 

比利 – 但房地产投资信托基金有用区块链技术吗?他们有用分布式分类记账技术来保存档案吗?

 

凯撒 – 不,但他们已经每天以数十亿美元的规模在进行著交易,你可以轻松地与世界各地的经纪人交易。

 

比利 – 你不明白。 如果代币应用了区块链技术,例如以太坊,那么投资人可以随时随地的交易。就像那些可怜的朝鲜投资者,现在他们也可以拥有一个代币。

 

凯撒 – 任何人都可以交易?!! 很明显这些产品都是证券,对吗?

 

比利 – 是的。

 

凯撒 – 这意味著这些产品将受到监管,在大多数地方,交易所需要持有许可证。

 

比利 – 是的,这是正确的。

 

凯撒 – 就和现在的交易所持有的牌照一样吗?

 

比利 – 正确。

 

凯撒 – 那么运营撮合引擎的技术栈也必须得到监管机构的批准,对吧?

 

比利 – 正确。

 

凯撒 – 所以你复制相同的技术,获取相同的许可证后,针对追求相同的客户群?

 

比利 – 正确。

 

凯撒 – 好吧,听起来值得一试。我们可以继续投钱,并按体量增加。 [ The Blind Fund 一直以来都喜欢投资些负毛利率的业务。]

 

比利 – 这正是我的想法。每个人都在谈论 STO 以及它们是如何成为未来的。另一种类型的 STO 是创业公司的股权发行。

 

凯撒 – 那么与首次公开募股有何不同?

 

比利 – 现在很多公司都想维持 私有化,进行首次公开​​募股的成本以及所有监管和合规成本都是令人生畏的 – 特别是对于小公司而言。小型科技公司应该有办法通过出售某种类型的股权来筹集资金。

 

凯撒 – 这些公司能够支付股息吗?我假设这些都是仍未盈利的公司。

 

比利 – 他们不仅不会支付股息,也不会有经审计的账目,或者有任何义务向投资者解释任何事情。

 

凯撒 – 哇,太棒了。这个 STO 的东西如何体现在资产负债表上?

 

比利 – 我们还不确定。

 

凯撒 – 传统的金融理论会认为这种资产毫无价值,因为没有未来现金流。

 

比利 – Kaiser 别天真了。我们之前不是讨论过吗。传统金融已经死了。我们处于一种新的时代。别当一个逆趋势而行的人。

 

凯撒 – 我知道,我知道。但如果您出售这些和证券一样的资产,那么不需要在国家监管机构注册吗?

 

Billy – 小声点。。。别告诉任何人。我们低调行事。因为我们使用区块链和/或分布式分类帐技术,这些规则都不适用。最好的是,我们可以通过告诉投资者购买这些东西时实际上没有任何权益来免除我们所需要承担的任何法律责任。哈哈哈哈哈。

 

凯撒 – 拜托这个区块链太刺激了!你想怎么玩都行。

 

比利 – 是吧!也许我们唯一不能做的就是赚到收入。

 

凯撒 – 别担心。我很多住沙漠里的好朋友们,他们用钱现金不经大脑。他们不会让我们失望的。

 

 

 

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波莉口袋( Polly Pocket )的流动性问题

在最近的波莉口袋投资者日偷听到以下对话。

 

波莉口袋是波莉口袋资本论的( Polly Pocket Capital 的管理合伙人。该基金仅投资于加密币市场。

 

二蛋( Schmuck )是该基金的投资者。

 

波莉 – 欢迎大家参加投资者日活动。 2018 年对我们的基金来说是充满挑战的一年,但我们非常有信心长期为投资者带来卓越的回报。

 

二蛋 – 谈到绩效,我可以多了解一下您的基金实际拥有资产是什么吗?

 

波莉 – 好问题。 如您所知,我们并未透露具体内容,但我可以给您一个概述。我们的基金持有的资产可以分为上市和非上市代币两类。

 

二蛋– 请问上市和非上市是什么意思?我以为基金只允许投资一些已经在二级市场上交易的代币。

 

波莉 – 嗯,的确如此。 但我们同时看到了一些很棒的项目,所以我们设计了一个侧口袋。 侧口袋包含我们所有 Pre-ICO 交易。

 

二蛋- 嗯……所以基本上你们可以投资你喜欢的东西,不管基金的授权是什么?

 

波莉 – 简而言之,是的。

 

二蛋– 好吧。。。。 那你如何计算这些非流动的,未公开发售的代币?

 

波莉 – 如你所知,由于我们在行业的网络关系,我们在大众有投资机会前就可以进场。 通常情况下,比起上一轮进场的大众我们可以获得 70% – 90% 的折扣。然后我们以代币最后一轮价格的价格作为结算价格。

 

二蛋- 所以,如果你投资的价格是 1 美元,而最后一轮交易的总量可能占比非常小但以 10 美元的价格出售,你便增加了 10 倍的收益?

 

波莉 – 是的。

 

二蛋- 这是否也意味着我将被收取 10 倍价值的管理费?

 

波莉 – 是的。

 

二蛋- 今年你们基金投资的代币组合的流动性变得非常的差,对吗?

 

波莉 – 是的。

 

二蛋- 由于侧口袋的价格标记方法,资金管理规模正以越来越快的速度在淌血。我支付的 2% 管理费是以代币价格的 10 倍来计算,这些代币没有二级市场,并且不知道未来猴年马月可以在二级市场出售该代币?

 

波莉 – 实际情况没有你描述的那么糟,但基本上是差不多的。

 

二蛋- 您是否在计算代币价格时会将这些没有流动性和不确定未来上市日期的代币估值打折计算?

 

波莉 – 不。我们认为这是极端情况才会出现的,而这已经反映在上一轮价格中。我们的代币专家团队知道如何为这些代币进行估值。

 

二蛋- 也许吧,但这些侧口袋投资的管理费可能会消耗投资者资本的全部价值。 如果我想退出会怎么样?

 

波莉 – 我们会首先出售我们的流动性较强的代币。 一旦资金池清光了,我们将无法满足您的退出请求。

 

二蛋- 有没有办法出售你持有的这些低流动性项目的权益?你尝试过吗?

 

波莉 – 从法律上讲,我们无法出售。 SAFT 条款不允许我们在代币上市之前出售我们的权益。

 

二蛋- 所以基本上你是在告诉我,我等于上了贼船了?

 

波莉 – 我不会这么表述。我们不常遭遇流动性问题。

 

真心对话

BitMEX 研究团队编制了一份已经筹集超过 5,000 万美元且未上市的代币清单。

这些项目的估值巨大,许多最受尊敬的代币基金都投入了大量资金。目前尚不清楚这些项目何时会在二级市场上出售。

鉴于那里有大量的代币供应,又有谁会买这些代币?

你真的可以将这些投资价格用上一轮的价格来计算吗?

有传闻称有资金试图出售其 SAFT 权益,而且标示出来的价格远低于上一轮的价格。

2019 年将成为许多基金被审判的一年。您可以在投资的第 1 年将这些资产以荒谬的价格来计算。但是仪表将在 1 月 1 日再次启动。 如果这些资产上市了,那就无法再用会计技巧来掩盖这些基金的巨额亏损。

 

 

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忏悔

在纽约市的圣帕特里克大教堂无意中听到以下对话。

 

犹大是以太坊的程序开发员;他运气不太好。他现在在教堂忏悔。  

 

神父是主教。

 

犹大 – 原谅我神父,因为我犯了罪。我上次忏悔已经是一年以前了。  

 

神父 – 来,我的儿子,请告诉我你犯了什么罪。  

 

犹大 – 你知道,我是以太坊的开发者。但我相信我向另一位上帝作了假见证。  

 

神父 – 那是谁,魔鬼,撒旦本人吗?  

 

犹大 – 没有。神父,我的信仰迷失了。我曾经相信了去中心化 。  

 

神父 – 嗯?我不太了解。你能解释一下吗?


犹大 – 我是以太坊的开发者。你知道吗,就是世界上的虚拟电脑。我相信使用以太坊协议我可以将所有东西去中心化。特别是我感兴趣的金融资产​​交易,比如股票。

 

神父 – 好的,但去中心化的股票市场会是什么样子?

 

犹大 – 嗯,任何人在任何地方都可以交易股票。您无需获得任何政府或纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克等传统交易所的批准。它还允许任何人将他们项目的股权出售给世界上的任何人。简而言之,每个人,都将拥有真正财务自由。

 

神父 – 异端邪说。你打算与天使抗衡吗?和纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克交易所为敌吗?你没有查阅关于我们的主与这些组织的关系的好书吗?

 

犹大 – 我查阅了,但我认为因为我使用了去中心化的世界电脑,以太坊,我们的主不会介意。

 

神父 – 儿子,你仍没有读足够多的福音书。具体来说,是豪伊的福音。

 

犹大 – 嗯,我认为我的律师对福音书非常了解。他们告诉我,因为它是去中心化的,所以豪伊的福音并不适用。  

 

神父 –  [悲伤地摇头]在我的上一篇讲道中,我传讲主的孩子们必须警惕假先知。特别是那些穿着布莱尼奥( Brioni )西服和白色 Church’s 品牌的鞋子。这些白鞋律师所关心的不是你的灵魂,而是他们的口袋。  

 

犹大 – 哦,我没想到。我们宿醉并在著名夜店住了一晚。我们当时正在庆祝我们的 ICO 。  

 

神父 – 啊, ICO 。我对魔鬼的工具非常警惕。但我的儿子,如果你推出 ICO 并从中获利,那这个项目如何去中心化?一个真正去中心化的项目不是应该没有可识别的领导者,没有一个实体从其运营中获利吗?  

 

犹大 – 我现在意识到了我的方式的错误。  

 

神父 – 主怎么让你悔改?  

 

犹大 – 主命令我付出一大笔钱才能免除我的罪过。  

 

神父 – 那也比上帝送你到所多玛和蛾摩拉,也就是雷克斯岛监狱来得好  

 

犹大 – 我知道,我永远感激主的怜悯。  

 

神父 – 我很高兴你学会懂了。我们的主是仁慈的。但衪必向那些威胁衪的王国的人显明愤怒。  

 

神父 – 让我们向我们的主和救主祷告。奉主及伊杰克莱顿( JAY CLAYTON )(美国证监会主席)的圣名祈祷。

 

 

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完全去中心化

我正盯著我的仙人掌毛绒玩具,我想有没有人试图完全去中心化?后来,我发了一条简讯给 Meltem 然后开始了我们的对话,以下的想法表现出 2018 年有多荒谬。

 

我将用这份简报来解释完全去中心化的概念。我已经看到了未来,许多加密投资者将在未来对这去中心化很熟悉,尽管他们还不知道。

 

 

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BlockMEX STO

Remember BlockMEX? Well the firm has limped along for several years. They have tried various business models. None have made any money. But that doesn’t matter, VC firms continue to shower the company with cash, and its valuation continues to rise. The CEO now has a great new idea. Let’s listen in on the recent board meeting.

Billy – Billy is the CEO of the company. He just joined as the previous dude got ousted. The VC firm The Blind Fund, who supplies most of the cash, ousted the previous CEO in favour of Billy who they thought would play ball better.

Kaiser Soze – One of the general partners at The Blind Fund.

Kaiser Soze – So Billy, what are we going to do to get some traction? It’s been over four years, and BlockMEX still makes zero revenue. You guys need to do something new.

Billy – Well, I have a new idea. ICOs are toxic. The projects are trash, and the regulators hate them. What about STOs, Securities Token Offerings?

Kaiser Soze – Tell me more.

Billy – Ok, so imagine you want to buy a fraction of a piece of real estate. And then you could trade your fractional ownership, which is represented by a token.

Kaiser Soze – Call me old fashioned, but isn’t that just a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)? Most stock markets around the world already have those.

Billy – But do REIT’s ride on a Blockchain? Do they use Distributed Ledger Technology to hold the record of the title?

Kaiser Soze – No, but they trade billions of dollars a day already, and you can easily trade them with your local broker almost everywhere in the world.

Billy – You don’t get it. If the token rides on a Blockchain, like the Ethereum protocol, then they reach help anyone anywhere. Like those poor investors in North Korea who have nowhere to put their savings. Now they can own a token.

Kaiser Soze – Anyone, really?!! It’s pretty clear these are securities, right?

Billy – Yes.

Kaiser Soze – So that means they are regulated, and in most places the exchange needs some sort of license.

Billy – Yes, that’s correct.

Kaiser Soze – The same license the incumbent exchanges already possess?

Billy – Correct.

Kaiser Soze – And the technology stack that operates the matching engine must also be approved by the regulator, right?

Billy – Correct.

Kaiser Soze – So you are replicating the same technology, getting the same license, to go after the same client base?

Billy – Correct.

Kaiser Soze – Ok, sounds like a winner. We can keep pumping money in, and make it up on volume. [The Blind Fund never saw a negative gross margin business they didn’t like.]

Billy – Exactly what I was thinking. Everyone is talking about STOs and how they are the future. Another type of STO is an equity offering of a startup.

Kaiser Soze – So how would that be different than doing an IPO?

Billy – Well many companies these days are staying private, the cost of doing an IPO and all the regulatory and compliance costs, are daunting—-especially for smaller companies. There should be a way for smaller technology companies to raise funds by selling some type of equity.

Kaiser Soze – Would these companies pay dividends? I’m assuming these are unprofitable companies.

Billy – Not only would they not pay dividends, there would be no audited accounts, or any duty to really explain anything to their investors.

Kaiser Soze – Wow, that’s amazing. How would this STO thing fit in on the balance sheet?

Billy – Not sure on that one yet.

Kaiser Soze – Traditional financial theory would suggest that this token is worthless because there is no cash flow.

Billy – Come’on Kaiser. We have been through this before. Traditional finance is dead. We are in a new paradigm. Don’t be a luddite.

Kaiser Soze – I know, I know. But if you are selling equity like securities, wouldn’t that need to be registered with a national regulator?

Billy – Shhhhhh.. Don’t tell anyone. We are just going to shoe horn this one in. Because we use a Blockchain and or Distributed Ledger Technology, those rules don’t apply. The best part is, we can absolve ourselves of any legal liability by basically telling investors when they buy these things they actually have zero rights. ROFL.

Kaiser Soze – Man, this Blockchain shit is LIT! You can do anything.

Billy – I know, right? Maybe the only thing we can’t do is become revenue positive.

Kaiser Soze – Don’t worry about that. I know some people in the desert, who have more cash than brains. They won’t let us down.

 

Polly Pocket Has Liquidity Issues

Overheard at the recent Polly Pocket Investor Day.

Polly Pocket is the managing partner of Polly Pocket Capital. The fund invests solely in tokens.

Schmuck is an investor in the fund.

Polly – Welcome everyone to our Investor Day. 2018 has been a challenging year for our fund but we are fully confident in our ability, over the long run, to deliver superior returns.

Schmuck – Speaking of performance, can I get some more colour on what your fund actually holds?

Polly – Great question. As you know, we don’t disclose exactly what we own, but I can give you a taste. Our fund is divided into listed and unlisted tokens.

Schmuck – Ok, what do you mean by listed and unlisted? I thought the mandate only allowed the fund to invest in tokens that are already traded on a secondary market.

Polly – Well, that is true. But we saw some great deals, so we created a side pocket. The side pocket contains all the pre-ICO deals that we invested in.

Schmuck – Hmm…So you basically can invest in whatever you like, regardless of the fund mandate?

Polly – In a nutshell, yes.

Schmuck – Greeeeaaat. How do you mark these illiquid, unlisted tokens?

Polly – As you know, due to our amazing connections, we get in on deals well before the unwashed masses. Typically we get a 70% – 90% discount to the last round where most of the plebes purchase these tokens. We then mark the value of the token to the last round price.

Schmuck – So if you invest a price of $1,and the last round which could be a very small amount of the total float, is sold at $10, you record a 10x gain?

Polly – Yes.

Schmuck – Does that also mean that I get charged management fees on the 10x value?

Polly – Yes.

Schmuck – Your liquid token portfolio got molly whopped this year, correct?

Polly – Yes.

Schmuck – So the AUM will get bled at an accelerated rate due to the marking of the side pocket? I’m am paying 2% on a 10x marked up illiquid token with no secondary market, and there is no visibility as to when it will actually list?

Polly – I mean that sounds worse than it is, but you are essentially correct.

Schmuck – Do you apply a haircut to this valuation because there is no liquidity, and an indefinite time to listing?

Polly – No. We believe there is extreme value, and this is reflected in the last round price. Our team of token experts really knows how to value these things.

Schmuck – Maybe, but the management fees paid on these side pocket investments could consume the entire value of the investors’ capital. What happens if I would like to redeem?

Polly – We would sell our liquid tokens first. Once that pool of capital is exhausted, we would be unable to meet your redemption request.

Schmuck – Is there no way to sell your interest in these projects? Have you ever tried?

Polly – Legally we can’t. The SAFT term sheet does not allow us to transfer our interest before the token lists.

Schmuck – So basically you are telling me, I’m up shit creek without a paddle?

Polly – I wouldn’t put it that way. Sometimes we suffer liquidity issues.

REAL TALK

The BitMEX Research team has compiled a list of tokens that raised over US$50 million that have yet to list.

 

 

These deals have massive valuations, and many of the most venerated token funds took down large chunks. It is unclear when, if ever, these deals will ever list on the secondary market.

Given the large amount of token supply out there, who will buy this shit?

Can you really mark these investments to the last round price?

There are anecdotal reports of funds attempting to sell their SAFT interest, and the prices offered were way below the last round price.

2019 is going to be the year of reckoning for many funds. You can mark something to an absurd level in year 1. But the meter starts again on January 1st. If these things come to market, there will be no accounting tricks to hide the gargantuan losses that these funds will post.

The Confession

Overheard in St. Patrick’s Cathedral in New York City.

Judas is an Ethereum developer; he’s had some bad luck. He is now at Church giving a confession.

Father is the Bishop.

Judas – Forgive me Father, for I have sinned. It has been one year since my last confession.

Father – Welcome my son, please tell me how you have sinned.

Judas – Well as you know, I am an Ethereum developer. But I believe I have given false witness to another god.

Father – Who would that be, the Devil, Satan himself?

Judas – No Father, my faith strayed. I believed in Decentralisation.

Father – Huh? Not sure I follow. Please explain.

Judas – I am an Ethereum developer. You know, the world’s virtual computer. I believed that using the Ethereum protocol I could decentralise anything. And I was specifically interested in the trading of financial assets, like stocks.

Father – Ok, but what would a decentralised stock market look like?

Judas – Well, anyone, anywhere could exchange stocks. You wouldn’t need to get approval from any government or a traditional exchange like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq. It would also allow anyone to sell equity in their project to anyone in the world. In short, true financial freedom for everyone, everywhere.

Father – Heresy. You planned to usurp the Angels, the NYSE, and Nasdaq. Did you not consult the good book about our Lord’s relationship with those organisations?

Judas – I did, but I thought because I used the decentralised world computer, Ethereum, that our Lord and Saviour would not mind.

Father – Son, you did not read the Gospels close enough. Specifically, the Gospel according to Howie.

Judas – Well, I thought my lawyers were well versed in the Gospels. They told me that because it was decentralised, the Gospel according to Howie did not apply.

Father – [Shakes his head in sorrow] In my last sermon, I preached that the Lord’s children must be vigilant against false prophets. Specifically those wearing Brioni suits, and white Church’s shoes. These white shoe lawyers, care not for your soul, but only for their pockets.

Judas – Oh, I missed that one. I was too hungover after a night at the Box. We were celebrating our ICO.

Father – Ah, the ICO. I also lead a vigil against that tool of the Devil. But son, how is your project decentralised, if you personally launched an ICO, and profited from it? Surely, a truly decentralised project has no identifiable leader, and no one entity profits from its operation?

Judas – I realised the errors of my ways now.

Father – How has the Lord made you repent?

Judas – The Lord decreed that I must pay a large sum of money to absolve my sins.

Father – Better that, than the Lord sending you to Sodom and Gomorrah, a.k.a. Rikers.

Judas – I know, I am forever grateful to the mercy of our Lord.

Father – I am glad you have learned son. Our Lord is merciful. But he will strike rath down upon those who threaten his kingdom.

Father – Let us pray to our Lord and Saviour. In nomine patris et filii spiritus sancti JAY CLAYTON.

Decentralise Zero

I was staring at my plush toy cactus, and I thought has anyone tried to decentralise zero? Later, I was messaging Meltem and through our conversation, the following ideas manifested themselves about the absurdity of 2018.

I dedicate this newsletter to the concept of zero. I have seen the future, and many crypto investors will become familiar with this round number, although they might not know it yet.

ETHUSD 的掉期合约的价格是合理的吗

永续掉期衍生结构是一件美妙的产品。它使得交易便简单了,因为它模拟了保证金交易的结构。大多数散户交易员都熟悉保证金交易的结构。使用这个模式,任何人都能交易着各式各样的衍生品。

“ Quanto 是衍生产品的一种,其中标的物以一种货币计价,但该工具本身以另一种货币结算。对于希望投资海外资产但却不想冒汇率风险的投机者和投资者而言,此类产品具有吸引力。”- 维基百科

ETHUSD 掉期已成为全球最具流动性的 ETH / USD 交易工具。它允许投资者交易着 ETH / USD 的价格,而不需要持有以太币或美元。与所有 BitMEX 合约一样, ETHUSD 的保证金和结算货币是比特币。从交易的角度来看,这使得事情变得很简单。

当 ETHUSD 产品上市时,我向读者介绍了 Quanto 衍生产品的结构。请阅读为何使用双币种( Quanto )对冲双币种( Quanto )永续合约复习一下。

在 ETHUSD 推出之后,以太币的价格成了下跌了。在这样的熊市中,许多交易员预计资金费率将保持负值。这在逻辑上是有道理的。

市场正在下跌,因此保证金的压力应该在卖方。但是,从产品发布到现在的累积资金费率是正值。正资金费率意味着多头方支付着空头方。

我的假设是,正的资金费率代表了 Quanto 的风险溢价。然后,我委托其中一位 BitMEX 研究分析师进行以下测试:

第一步

从 8 月 9 日到 10 月 22 日,为了获取资金收入,您卖出了 ETHUSD ( 100 XBT 名义价值),并通过以美元购买以太币进行对冲。

第二步

每小时您重新计算您的净比特币仓位盈亏,并以美元对冲该盈亏。

第三步

计算该期间内投资组合的美元净回报。

第四步

把您在此期间内卖出 ETHUSD 掉期所收到(支付)的净收益全部加起来。

 

结果

没有资金流入,您将损失 46,779.73 美元用于对冲比特币收益 。这在预料之中,因为您是“卖出”相关性。在过去的几个月里, XBTUSD 和 ETHUSD 的相关性上升了不少。

 

当收到净资金 46,010.85 美元时,您的交易基本收支平衡。过程中您买入 31.94  ETH 进行 delta 对冲并就盈亏对冲累积了 43.83 XBT 空头仓位 。结论是,尽管资金费率保持正值,但这笔资金需要补偿 Quanto 的风险溢价。


相关性正在上升,因此交易员将通过现货价格推高 ETHUSD 掉期的价格以从 Quanto 的盈亏中获利。这产生正资金费率,并使市场达到平衡。


长期来说都该如此,但有时您的净盈亏可以是正或是负的。上图提供了此交易的累计盈亏的时间序列分析。我们可以看到,市场偶尔会对这种掉期进行错误定价。

令人惊讶的是,在不到六个月的时间里, ETHUSD 掉期价格已经非常完美。但是,比特币和以太币的波动性都在下降。当我们回到正常的波动水平时,我预计恐惧和贪婪的交易员会把 ETHUSD 掉期推离  Quanto 调整后的合理价格。

 

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熊市的阴霾

趋势是您的朋友,直到它成为您的敌人。人类本身就是个不称职的预测者。我们拿着昨天的回报并试图使用线性和非线性的规律来推断未来。我们眼中的世界在完美的线条中运作。

当市场逆转时,就像往常一样,一群悲伤的熊猫会被市场遗下。 2017 年是个欢庆的一年;  2018 年是个忧郁的一年。最糟糕的是当您得知您 2018 年的奖金的时候,如果您还有的话,那奖金几乎买不起一个 Swatch 。

我们加密币交易员现在应该学精明了,但我们从不学乖。市场可能会从 20,000 美元的高位下跌 70% ,但在交易员心态上,比特币可能随时一文不值。

当交易员赔钱时,他们会抨击。他们在 Twitter , Telegram , Reddit 和其他社交媒体平台上大肆宣传。输钱的感触使得他们表现的比那些在知道特朗普当选后的希拉里支持者更糟糕。

这就是熊市的阴霾。

 

我们都经历过

BitMEX 研究的优秀团队就之前的比特币牛市和熊市进行了一些分析。

他们区分了两个测量:

1.峰谷价格:峰值到谷值的下跌是通过将熊市的低点除以之前牛市的高点来衡量的。

2.市场内阶段的增加/减少:这是通过将牛市(熊市)的高(低)点除以该趋势开始时的价格来计算的。

他们的结论是,我们在目前的熊市中还有更多空间。由于比特币价格波动性的降低,我同意这个观点。

 

双重打击

一记左钩拳,再来一记右钩拳。比特币价格及其波动性在今年崩溃了。

交易员讨厌市场横行。交易者可以做多或做多,但无法买入横行的走势。横行市场会让交易员失业。

与主流的看法相反,如果比特币要获得主流采用它非常需要波动性。比特币的价格是传达其生态系统健康的最佳及最透明的方式。它(价格波动)告诉着世界,有着什么正在发生 – 无论是正面的还是负面的都是无关紧要的。

比特币价格波动是刺激生态系统活络的药物。媒体撰写任何有活力的事物;因此没有活力就没有曝光率。死忠交易员和工程师将始终在大众媒体报道之前获得新的资产类别或技术信息。然而,只有更多的人发现埃尔多拉多( El Dorado ),这些交易员和工程师的努力才会被放大。这需要懒惰的主流财经媒体提供的曝光率。

如果波动率保持在低迷水平,价格将慢慢下跌。对于我们这些经历过 2014  – 2015 年熊市的人来说,我们都在等待那能直击公牛灵魂的一鞭。然后,只有这样,波动性和价格才会上涨。

 

混沌时期

我们能走多远?

从 9,152 美元下跌 75% 我们将接近 2,000 美元。 2,000 美元到 3,000 美元是我的新的最佳支持预测( Sweet Spot ),但千万不要告诉米歇尔 • 李( Michelle Lee )( Hashed.Asia 的作家)。

是否 “抄底” 要看熊市最后一跌时的价格行为。当您看到它时您便会知道。可最美妙的是,您可能会太怂了而不敢点击那可怕的买入键。

 

 

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稳定币:尽情的诡辩吧

经过 10 年,比特币仍继续存在,但其生态圈仍然存在严重的缺点。对于任何从事与加密币有关的商业活动来说,想要开设和持有可以清算美元的银行账户是非常困难的。这个弱点使得业界对所有稳定币产生需求。

稳定币分为两大派系。其中一个是由 Tether 领头的伪美元货币市场基金。另一个子部分是“代币”( Maker / Dai , Haven , Basecoin 等),试图通过使用花哨数学模型和伪行为经济来持有的美元。

 

美元银行账户

市场诞生的 Tether 彻底体现出了开设和持有美元银行账户的难度。投资者有以美元交易比特币和其他垃圾币的需求。加密币与加密币的交易市场的流动性是很高的,但我们交易时仍然以美元计价。因此,能够提供美元交易的交易所将胜过不能提供这些美元交易的同行。

不可否认, Tether 是一项创新的产品,因为它是一个通过比特币和以太坊区块链转移的美元代币。理论上来说, Tether 团队持有大量的美元,足以以 1 Tether = 1 美元的兑价创造和赎回 Tether 。以前只提供加密币兑换加密币的交易所从此可以提供加密币兑美元的交易兑价给投资者,并将原本需要开设银行账户的麻烦由 Tether 消化掉。

市场需求就在摆在那儿,但困难的部分是您的现金存哪儿。 Tether 在各个司法管辖区收购后又失去了银行业务。其他人看着 Tether 的传奇故事,得出的结论是,利用他们自己的关系,他们可以提供比 Tether 更好的选择。现在市场上各种交易所提供着 Tether 翻版产品,如 Gemini , Circle 和 itBit 。

 

名字不重要,本质上就是货币市场基金

对于良好的银行体系来说,货币市场基金的存在极为重要。散户投资者和机构投资者便能在短期内将多余的现金存放在货币市场基金并提高他们收益率。货币市场基金将投资于高流动性的固定收益投资工具。短期政府债券,信誉良好的企业发行的商业票据和短期银行贷款,都是货币市场基金持有的一些投资产品。

货币市场基金的风险承受能力很低。对他们来说最重要的是他们的投资能始终保持票面价值,例如 1 单位 = 1 美元。在 2008 年全球金融危机期间,一些货币市场基金面临着“跌穿票面价值”的风险。低风险债务成为高风险债务;流动性枯竭,投资者急于退出。

今天, Tether 和它的翻版们承诺每一枚代币都有 1 美元的背书。一些该代币的发起人可以公开与他们合作的银行伙伴,有些则不公开。与传统的货币市场基金相比,透明度水平相形见绌。

另一个加密币货币市场与传统货币市场的关键区别是的是这些稳定币不支付利息。发行稳定币真正的利润是他们能够获得净息差。如果没有巨大的利润空间,为什么他们要为整个加密币生态圈托管美元,为自己带来开设及持有银行账户的麻烦?

随着利率上升,这些对于稳定币的运营商来说这都是纯利润。肆无忌惮的运营商将持有的美元现金投资于风险较高的固定收益产品。最糟糕的营运商将带上乔恩 • 科尔津( Jon Corzine )(加杠杆之意),并购买风险最高的固定收益产品。

如果您持有任何货币市场稳定币,您必须问清楚以下问题:

  • 谁是它们的合作伙伴(哪家银行)?
  • 它们持有的基金能够投资于什么类型的固定收益产品(如果有的话)?
  • 作为一个普通的散户投资者,您能否创造或赎回该代币,而这个过程需要多长时间?

 

想成为中央银行

另一组发起人问了这个问题,您能否制造一枚与美元挂钩的代币但却不用持有任何美元作为支持?

实物美元的替代品是数学,行为经济学加上加密货币。这些项目需要大量非稀释现金的原因是因为当风暴来临并且他们的垃圾币交易价格低于单位价格时,发起人必须消费自己持有的美元,比特币或以太币来恢复挂钩。

许多项目希望建立一个基于规则的数字中央银行;然而,他们所做的一切只不过是通过复杂和无聊的白皮书来实现对实物现金的需求。

最重要是,他们筹集资金的目的是让这些投资人作为风暴来临时最后接火棒的人。否则,这些项目根本不需要价值数亿美元的资金来投资。如果数学和行为模型能按计划进行,那这个代币的规模应该会越来越大,并且随着时间的推移,永远保持挂钩。

如果任何项目能返还他们筹集的所有资金,并纯粹基于其数学模型推出他们的代币,我将非常吃惊。我非常怀疑哪个项目能够接受这个挑战。

我敢打赌,有一些加密币圈的乔治 • 索罗斯效仿者正虎视眈眈,等待适当的时机打破这些代币的挂钩兑价。作为观众来说将看到一幕壮举。

格雷欣法则( Gresham’s Law )将成立。货币市场拥有诚实和透明运营商的稳定币将占据绝大多数的资产管理规模。其他那些妄想成为的中央银行的竞争者们只能在伪科学和自负假说的担子下挣扎。

 

 

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