BitMEX 杠杆统计数据,2019 年 4 月

BitMEX 声名鹊起的一个原因是客户在交易比特币/美元价格时能够使用 100 倍杠杆。 我们经常被问到交易者有多经常使用所提供的最高杠杆。 我让我们的数据科学团队提取从 2018 年 5 月到 2019 年 4 月的 XBTUSD 永续合约的杠杆率使用历史数据。

第一张图表和表格组合显示了 XBTUSD 多头和空头的月底加权有效杠杆。

看来交易者非常 “负责”,因为他们平均没有使用最大杠杆率。

定义
按月、方向和交易品种分组的总数

计算百分位数的方法

  • 选择前 12 个月中每个月的最后一个可用时间戳(即 “月末快照” ),并计算所有账户中每个仓位的有效杠杆,四舍五入到最接近的整数
  • 从结果值中创建一个排序列表,并通过按持有的合约数量扩展每个仓位的有效杠杆来展平(例如,如果仓位数量为 4 的账户使用了 3 的有效杠杆,则对该列表的贡献是 '3 3 3 3'
  • 通过获取由下式给出的索引处的值,可以找到此列表的任何给定百分位数: (列表计数)*(所需百分位数)

使用均值是粗略的,因为持有大仓位的交易者使用的杠杆必须少于较小仓位交易者。 这是由于 BitMEX 的风险限额功能。 交易者可以使用 100 倍杠杆,最大仓位为 200 XBT。 之后,初始和维持保证金要求逐步按每 50 XBT 增加 0.5% 。

为了了解各自合约数量的杠杆分布,我们查看了从 2018 年 5 月到 2019 年 4 月的 12 个月末快照的平均 XBTUSD 多头和空头直方图。 上面两个图表显示了这些数据。 正如我们所料,仓位最大的交易者使用最少的杠杆。 

虽然允许对 XBTUSD 开仓的最大杠杆率为 100 倍,但有效杠杆可以增加到 200 倍(即维持保证金要求的 0.50% 的倒数),此时会进行强平。

创建直方图的方法

  • 计算所有 12 个月末快照的每个有效杠杆的合约总数,然后将每个总数除以 12(即平均月末快照)

我希望这些数据可以让交易者更好地理解 BitMEX 市场的微观结构。 我将在不久的将来继续定期发布回溯统计数据。

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Convexity: Rektum? Damn Near Killed ‘Em

Since BitMEX launched on 24 November 2014, cryptocurrency derivatives trading exploded. I tried in vain to seduce various venture capital firms with the vision of the future that was all about derivatives trading. At that time, succour was not forthcoming; however, I could not be more pleased with my failures now standing in 2019.
 
The BitMEX XBTUSD perpetual swap and various other contracts traded on OKEx and Deribit are of the same ilk. These contracts all allow you to trade a fixed USD amount of Bitcoin. We call these inverse derivatives contracts. Many OG traders have heard me speak at length about the subtle yet profound implications of this contract structure. However, as many new traders now try their hand at derivatives trading, a refresher course is necessitated.
 
Contrary to popular belief, I don’t delight when I see the BitMEX Rekt twitter feed going bananas. I’m long-term greedy. I would rather you enjoy a long trading career earning a profit and paying BitMEX trading fees along the way, than blow up your equity capital during a liquidation. Therefore, it is in mine and BitMEX’s best interest that our traders are sufficiently educated about best trading practices.
 
I love our traders, but when I hear people smile and laugh about getting liquidated it makes me cringe. A real trader practices proper risk management, and that means never being liquidated.
 
You Gotta Go Down, To Go Up
 
Convexity or gamma is the second derivative of a contract’s value with respect to price. Used correctly convexity can supercharge your portfolio’s returns. However, if you do not understand how convexity affects a derivative you trade, you will get rekt repeatedly.
 
With inverse contracts, the margin currency is the same as the home currency. I will use the XBTUSD contract throughout this post.
 
Home Currency: XBT (Bitcoin)
Foreign Currency: USD
Margin Currency: XBT
USD Value: 1 USD
XBT Value: 1 USD / Price (XBT/USD exchange rate or .BXBT index)
 
I will dwell on how the XBT exposure of a long 100,000 contract position changes with respect to the price (.BXBT Index).

First, let’s look at the long side. In bull and bear markets, these will most likely be speculators. This makes sense because being long Bitcoin offers asymmetric returns. Bitcoin can rise to infinity, but can only fall zero. It is better from a return on equity perspective to go long the bottom, then go short the top. Those who picked up ETH below $100 know this acutely. Therefore, coupled with leverage, on the margin, longs in most market environments will be predominately speculators.

The first chart shows XBT PNL profile and curvature. The straight line is the PNL %  return if the contract moved in a linear fashion, the curved line is the long inverse contract position’s PNL % return. What you immediately notice is that you will lose more money when the market falls, and make less money as the market rises. This is suboptimal as you must post margin in XBT. Thus, your margin requirements increase in a non-linear fashion, and this is why longs get rekt quickly in a falling market. 

Now let’s examine the short side.  In bull and bear markets, these will most likely be hedgers and market makers. In both cases, these market participants want to lock in the USD value of Bitcoin. With inverse contracts, a long physical Bitcoin position coupled with an equivalent short XBTUSD position creates a synthetic USD position. If 100% of the physical Bitcoin is placed at cross-margin with BitMEX, you cannot be liquidated.

Unlike the long side, shorts benefit from positive XBT convexity. Shorts make more and more XBT as the price falls, and lose less and less as the price rises.

The take away from these two examples is that long speculators will be liquidated faster on the way down. This explains why dumps in these derivatives dominated markets are now more extreme than pumps and will continue so long as inverse style derivatives dominate the cryptocurrency derivatives markets.

The CME contract has a fixed XBT exposure regardless of the price, and the USD exposure varies linearly with respect to price. While this is great for USD benchmarked investors, it becomes problematic for those hedging their exposure. Bitcoin purchased to hedge a short CME position cannot be used as collateral with the CME. This presents some challenges for hedgers who hold physical Bitcoin, and market makers who must divide precious capital between derivatives and spot markets with no cross-collateral relief.



 

BitMEX Leverage Statistics, April 2019

One of BitMEX’s claims to fame is the ability for clients to use 100x leverage while trading the Bitcoin / USD price. We often get asked to what extent traders use the maximum leverage offered. I asked our data science team to pull up historical data on leverage usage for the XBTUSD perpetual swap from May 2018 to April 2019.

The first chart and table combo shows the weighted effective leverage at month end for XBTUSD longs and shorts.

It appears traders are quite “responsible” in that they do not on average use the maximum amount of leverage.

Definitions
aggregation grouped by month, side, and symbol

Methodology for Calculating Percentiles

  • Pick the last available timestamp for each of the prior 12 months (i.e. ‘month-end snapshot’), and calculate the effective leverage for every position across all accounts rounded to the nearest integer
  • Create a sorted list from the resulting values, flattened by expanding each position’s resulting effective leverage by the number of contracts held (e.g. if an effective leverage of 3 was used by an account with a position quantity of 4, it’s a contribution to the list is '3 3 3 3')
  • Any given percentile of this list can be found by taking the value at the index given by: (Count of the list) * (Desired percentile)

Using the mean is crude because traders who hold large positions must use less leverage than smaller traders. This is due to the risk limit feature of BitMEX. Traders may use 100x leverage up to a position size of 200 XBT. After that, the initial and maintenance margin requirements step up 0.5% per 50 XBT.

To understand the distribution of leverage respective to the number of contracts, we looked at a histogram of XBTUSD long and shorts averaged over the 12 month-end snapshots from May 2018 to April 2019. The above two charts display this data. As we expected, the largest traders use the least amount of leverage.

While the maximum leverage allowable for opening a position in XBTUSD is 100x, the effective leverage can then increase to 200x (i.e. the reciprocal of the 0.50% maintenance margin requirement), at which point liquidation occurs.

Methodology for Creating Histogram

  • Calculate the sum total number of contracts at each effective leverage for all 12 month-end snapshots, then divide each total by 12 (i.e. average month-end snapshot)

I hope this data allows traders to better understand the BitMEX market microstructure. I will continue to periodically post backward looking statistics in the near future.

The Road to $10K

Did you take your losses like a champ, or bottom tick the market with your market close order? The first quarter of 2019 witnessed depressed volumes, volatility, and price. The local lows of late 2018 have not been retested; however the market chop makes me feel like I’m at the Saudi embassy.

The repair of crypto investors balance sheets is not done yet. Losses must be digested, and the unlucky masses must wage cuck a bit longer to get back in the game.

All is not lost; nothing goes up or down in a straight line. 2019 will be boring, but green shoots will appear towards year end. The mighty central bank printing presses paused for a while, but economic sophists could not resist the siren call of free money. They are busy inventing the academic crutches (here’s looking at your MMT), to justify the next global money printing orgy.

Do not despair. CRipple is still worth more than zero. And Justin Sun’s new age religion TRON, paired with the Pope CZ, tells us there are those still willing to eat shitcoins with a smile.

Electric Cars and Sand Schmucks

While Bitcoin is an innovative technology, the technical merits of the protocol do not exist in a vacuum. The world’s monetary situation is very important. It determines how willing investors are able to suspend disbelief and believe crypto fan boys and girls.

Throughout 2018 the omnipotent Fed began reducing the size of its balance sheet and raising short term interest rates. The world still beats to the tune of the USD. Financial institutions and governments require cheap dollars, and the Fed happily obliged since the 2008 GFC.

Tech VC funds won’t admit it, but cheap dollars are key to their business. How else can you convince LPs to continually fund negative gross margin businesses, until they “scale” and achieve profitability? Everyone wants to become the next Facebook.

When investing in government bonds yields zero or negative, desperate investors will do whatever it takes to obtain yield. Tesla is a perfect example. Lord Elon is a master at creating open-faced pits, and torching his investors’ money in them. Tesla does not belong on the Nasdaq, but rather as a speciality flavour at the New York Bagel Co.

The market disagrees with my Tesla melancholy, investors continue to line up to eat Elon’s sexy Tesla hot shit cakes. Can you blame them, after you are fully invested in the S&P500 where else will you be able to show alpha to your investors?

Another example of this free money folly is the Vision Fund.

  1. Top tick the “Value” your investments while still on the Softbank’s books.
  2. Find a group of schmucks from the sand (That’s where the former Deutsche credit boys come in, “Be Bold”)
  3. Sell your mark-to-fantasy private Unicorns into the vehicle populated by your sand schmucks
  4. Take your cash and payout to your Japanese investors as dividends.

These entities thrived while the Fed held rates at 0% and reinvested their treasury and MBS roll off. TSLA hit its all-time high in mid-2017. Since then Elon has struggled to generate enough buzz to keep his stock elevated. I’m sure he isn’t thrilled that bondholders are due close to $1 billion in cash because the stock price failed to scale $360.

The Vision Fund’s sand schmucks also got cold feet. They baulked when the fund proposed to invest an additional $20 billion into the We-Broke company. The check size got sliced down to $2 billion.

When dollars get scarce suddenly investors discover value investing all over again.

The height of crypto silliness in December 2017 occurred just before the Fed embarked on its quantitative tightening. The 2018 pain train spared no crypto asset or shitcoin.

But things are a changin’. The Fed couldn’t stomach a 20% correction in the SPX. In the recent Fed minutes, the dot plot now shows no rate increases for the rest of 2019. The Fed will start reinvesting its runoff in the third quarter. We are only a hop, skip, and a jump away from an expanding Fed balance sheet.

Beijing knows China must rebalance its economy away from credit-fueled fixed asset investment. However, Xi must not have the political cojones to push this sort of painful change through. Therefore, the PBOC said “fuck it” to any attempt to reign in credit growth. The two most important central banks are creepin’ back into a super easy credit regime.

Easy money will manifest itself in other higher profile and more liquid dogshit before crypto. 2019 will feature an IPO beauty pageant of some of the best cash destroying businesses. Uber, Lyft, AirBnB, and possibly the We company all are rumoured to IPO this year.

Lyft is apparently oversubscribed for its upcoming IPO. Oh baby, this is going to be a fun year.

If these beauties can price at the top of the range, and trade above the IPO price, we know that party time is back. Crypto will be the last asset class to feel the love. Too many people lost too much money, in too short a time period, to immediately Fomo back into the markets.

Get Excited

Green shoots will begin to appear in early Q4. Free money and collective amnesia are powerful drugs. Also after two years of wage cucking, punters should have a few sheckles to rub together.

The 2019 chop will be intense, but the markets will claw back to $10,000. That is a very significant psychological barrier. It’s a nice round sexy number. $20,000 is the ultimate recovery. However, it took 11 months from $1,000 to $10,000, but less than one month from $10,000 to $20,000 back to $10,000.

Melissa Lee peep this. $10,000 is my number, and I’m stickin’ to it.

一体两面:不久后走向分叉的货币

数字社会需要数字货币。加密货币这个词大家都不陌生。但真正去中心化的加密货币(比如比特币)和所谓的中心化的 电子货币” 之间,存在着巨大的差异。

随着比特币现在正式步入其存在的第二个十年,对现代资金的一些根本性变化进行梳理的时机已经成熟,包括人们储存和传输价值的方式,预期在不远的将来他们都会发生变化

 

得寸进尺

我认为第一种新型资金是中心化的电子货币。这直接来源于当前的体系,采用政府(法定)货币并对其进行更新,用于数字时代。这是一个自然而然的过程——我认为不可避免,它将现有中央银行体系和我们日益企业化的经济体进行综合。 

让电子货币成为可能的主要现象是,随着社会的发展,我们已经逐渐适应了将我们的整个私人生活交给企业的这种方式。这么做可以换取便利和轻松,这两方面我们当然都获得了充足的供应。但现在,我们接受(或被迫接受)企业发行的货币,往往意味着隐私的进一步减少。

对电子货币走向的最清晰的展示可能来自微信支付,在中国,微信支付的使用几乎已经消除了现金。它的运行方式如下:使用二维码和移动电话,商家从您的微信钱包中扣除信用,而该钱包直接连接到您的银行账户。在您身处市场摊位的同时,人民币(CNY)被立即从您的账户中扣除,并记入商家的账户。商户得到资金,你取走饺子,使用实物现金的烦恼烟消云散。

作为经常在中国各地旅行的人,其实我很喜欢微信支付。但作为一名在银行业从业,而且现在以比特币为生的人,我也知道中心化支付系统的隐私局限性。

现在世界各地的主要参与者提供的各种移动支付系统在细节上是有所不同的。但在某些情况下,他们几乎了解关于您的一切:您购买的商品和服务,还有您发生购买的位置和时间,而且这可能与他们所拥有的所有其他数据相关联。 

与此同时,我们看到西方政府在受到这种推动时,很难让我们的企业朋友给出我们的个人信息。 不出所料,公司倾向于遵守这些要求。而私营部门支付网络和众筹平台,则可以因为人们的冒犯性观点或言论,或者是不良行为而将他们逐出。当然并非全都一定不合理,但是谁来划定界限?是他们自己。

此外,从货币方面来看,你可以看看:在某个时间点,央行和政府会根据这些货币的性质,开始以更实际的方式对企业货币的功能进行指导是逐步发生还是突然进行的? 我预计,他们采取的方式是委托将成为支付网络节点的商业银行和大型社交媒体公司,授权他们参与电子货币系统和赚取交易费用。

值得注意的是,支付网络的规则可以通过代码立即完美地实施。 系统中唯一留给低效或腐败人群参与的地方将是网络的顶端,当局可以直接向人们发放信贷,立即对每笔交易征税,并决定参与网络的人。 理论上,您在金融层面全部的存在都可以用这种方式管理。

 

而这就是比特币存在的意义

虽然我刚刚描述的这样一种货币体系可能会也可能不会存储在区块链之上,但不要误解:它是中心化的,自上而下及接受审查(这意味着如果你与中心化的力量产生冲突,您可能被禁止使用它)。

相比之下,比特币是去中心化的,是点对点的及可以抵抗审查。比特币通过由自愿、独立和利己的行动者组成的网络运行,他们既不需要也不要求任何好处或许可;交易费用的几个基点就是他们想要的——而且所有人都可以收取。虽然任何比特币钱包的公共地址及其交易历史记录都是可见的,但所有交易中都不含有任何个人身份信息。

这意味着比特币或类似货币,可能是社会在私人电子货币形式上的最佳希望。我认为,隐私是一个运行良好的社会的重要组成部分。出于道德甚至心理的原因,公民应该有能力将自己的生活的某些细节保留给自己。

总而言是:长期以来,实物现金一直是隐私方面的最佳形式。但为了获得更有效和透明的电子货币形式,各届政府将逐步淘汰实物现金。也许比你想象得更快,现金将不再是满足隐私或其他任何事物的选项。普通公民将领会到比特币的内在价值,因为一旦现金成为了一种低效而麻烦的方式,他们谨慎保持和转移价值的能力就会消失。

 

总体乐观的理由

比特币在很大程度上还是一个实验。然而,经过 10 年的运行之后,尽管在软件史上提供了实际上最大的 漏洞赏金” ,但比特币协议没有遭受过黑客攻击。比特币是一个惊人的成就,不同的私人个体为共同的目标而努力。 

在我考虑一个社区的人群如何共同创建一个替代性货币体系时,我对于通过集体的、去中心化的努力可以改善我们全球社会的其他层面是非常乐观的。 

即使面对正在集结的各种集中化力量,我也会这样说:人类分叉货币的未来将好于我们货币被垄断的过去,因为一些货币只是变得更加方便,而另一些货币则变得私密得多。

 

 

 

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Two sides of the coin: the bifurcated near-future of money

 

A digital society requires digital cash. You hear the word cryptocurrency a lot. But there’s a very big difference between a truly decentralised cryptocurrency like Bitcoin and what could be called centralised ‘e-money.’

As Bitcoin today officially heads into its second decade of existence, this is a ripe moment to familiarise yourself with some of the fundamental changes in modern money, including the ways people store and transmit value, that I think you can expect to see in the near future

We Gave Them an Inch, Now They’re About to Take a Mile

The first type of new money I believe we’re going to see is centralised e-money. This descends directly from the current system, taking government (fiat) currency and updating it for the digital age. It’s a natural — and I imagine inevitable — synthesis of the existing central bank system and our increasingly corporatised economy.

The keystone phenomenon that makes e-money possible is the way in which we as a society have grown accustomed to handing over our entire private lives to corporations. We’ve done so in exchange for entertainment and convenience, and we’ve certainly received ample supplies of both. It’s only a small step now, however, to our accepting (or being forced to accept) the corporate issuance of money and the further diminution of privacy that comes with that.

The clearest glimpse into where e-money is heading is probably WeChat Pay, which has now practically eradicated cash in China. The WeChat Pay system works like this: using QR codes and mobile phones, merchants deduct credits from your WeChat wallet, which is connected directly to your bank account. Instantly, while standing at a market stall, Chinese renminbi (CNY) is debited from your account, and credited to the merchant’s account. They get their money, you take your dumplings, and the friction and annoyance of using physical cash evaporates.

As someone who travels around China frequently, I actually love WeChat Pay. However, as someone who built a career in banking and now makes his living in Bitcoin, I also know the privacy limitations of centralised payment systems.

The various mobile payment systems now offered by major players in different parts of the world differ in their details. But in some cases, they know almost everything about you: what goods and services you purchase, as well as where and when you purchase them, which can presumably be linked to all the other data they have on you.

At the same time, we’ve seen our governments in the West, when the spirit moves them, lean hard on our corporate friends to cough up our personal information. Unsurprisingly, the corporations tend to comply with these requests. We have also witnessed private sector payment networks and crowdfunding platforms kick people out for having too close an association with offending ideas or speech, or for being bad actors. Not all of this is necessarily unreasonable, but who gets to draw the line? They do.

Furthermore, monetarily, you can see where this leads: whether it happens gradually or suddenly, at some point central banks and governments, in accord with their nature, may start directing the monetary functions of corporations in a more hands-on way. The way they would do it, I expect, is by deputising commercial banks and large social media companies, who shall become nodes on a payment network, with the authority to participate in the e-money system and earn transaction fees.

Significantly, the payment network’s rules can be enforced instantly and flawlessly via code. The only place left in the system for inefficient or corruptible humans to participate will be at the apex of the network, where the authorities can issue credit directly to people, tax every transaction immediately, and determine who can and can’t be part of the network. In theory, your entire financial existence can be governed this way.

Thankfully, That’s Where Bitcoin Enters the Conversation

Although such a monetary system as I’ve just described may or may not be warehoused on a blockchain look-alike, make no mistake: it is centralised, top-down, and censored (meaning you can be barred from using it if you fall afoul of the centralised powers).

Bitcoin, by contrast, is decentralised, peer-to-peer, and censorship resistant. Bitcoin runs via a network of voluntary, independent, and self-interested actors, who neither demand nor require any favours or permissions; a few basis points in transaction fees is literally all they want from anyone — and all they’re allowed to take. And while the public address of any Bitcoin wallet, and its transaction history, are visible to all, no personally identifiable information is contained in any transaction.

Which means that Bitcoin, or something like it, is perhaps society’s best hope for a private form of electronic money. And privacy, I argue, is an important part of a well-functioning society. For moral and even psychological reasons, citizens deserve the ability to keep certain details about their lives to themselves.

To sum up: for a long time, physical cash has been the best form of money with respect to privacy. But armed with a more efficient and transparent form of e-money, government after government will gradually make physical cash obsolete. Sooner than you think, cash will not be an option for privacy, or for anything else. And private citizens will come to appreciate the inherent value of Bitcoin, as their ability to discreetly hold and transfer value evaporates once cash goes the way of the dodo.

Grounds for Optimism in General

Bitcoin is still very much an experiment. However, after 10 years of operation, the Bitcoin protocol has not been hacked — despite offering what’s effectively the biggest ‘bug bounty’ in software history. Bitcoin is an amazing achievement of disparate private individuals working together towards a common goal.

As I consider how a community of people collectively created an alternate monetary system, I am greatly optimistic about what other aspects of our global society we can improve through a collective, decentralised effort.

And I say this even in the face of the various centralising forces currently being marshalled: humanity’s bifurcated monetary future will be better than our monopoly monetary past, as some money becomes more convenient while other money becomes far more private.

BlockMEX STO

还记得 BlockMEX 吗?那家公司已经表现不佳好几年了。他们尝试了各种商业模式也没成功。 但这并不重要,风险投资公司继续投以大额资金,其估值继续上升。首席执行官现在有一个新想法。 让我们来听听他在最近的董事会会议是怎么说的。

 

比利( Billy )- 比利是该公司的首席执行官。他刚刚加入,因为前一个家伙被辞退了。公司的主要的风险投资人 The Blind Fund 辞退了前任首席执行官,并支持比利上位,因为他们认为比利能更好的带领公司走出困局。

 

凯撒索泽( Kaiser Soze )- The Blind Fund 的合伙人之一。

 

凯撒 – 比利,你觉得我们要做些什么来吸引客户?已经超过四年, BlockMEX 仍然零收入。你们需要想些新的模式。

 

比利 – 嗯,我有一个新主意。 ICO 是有毒的。这些项目是垃圾,监管机构讨厌它们。 你觉得证券型代币发行( STO )怎么样?

 

凯撒 – 你解释一下。

 

比利 – 好的,想象你想买某一房地产的一小部分。然后您可以交易属于您的少数权益,该权益由一个代币表示。

 

 

凯撒 – 恕我不够新潮,但这不就是房地产投资信托( REIT )吗? 世界上大多数股票市场都有这些产品。

 

比利 – 但房地产投资信托基金有用区块链技术吗?他们有用分布式分类记账技术来保存档案吗?

 

凯撒 – 不,但他们已经每天以数十亿美元的规模在进行著交易,你可以轻松地与世界各地的经纪人交易。

 

比利 – 你不明白。 如果代币应用了区块链技术,例如以太坊,那么投资人可以随时随地的交易。就像那些可怜的朝鲜投资者,现在他们也可以拥有一个代币。

 

凯撒 – 任何人都可以交易?!! 很明显这些产品都是证券,对吗?

 

比利 – 是的。

 

凯撒 – 这意味著这些产品将受到监管,在大多数地方,交易所需要持有许可证。

 

比利 – 是的,这是正确的。

 

凯撒 – 就和现在的交易所持有的牌照一样吗?

 

比利 – 正确。

 

凯撒 – 那么运营撮合引擎的技术栈也必须得到监管机构的批准,对吧?

 

比利 – 正确。

 

凯撒 – 所以你复制相同的技术,获取相同的许可证后,针对追求相同的客户群?

 

比利 – 正确。

 

凯撒 – 好吧,听起来值得一试。我们可以继续投钱,并按体量增加。 [ The Blind Fund 一直以来都喜欢投资些负毛利率的业务。]

 

比利 – 这正是我的想法。每个人都在谈论 STO 以及它们是如何成为未来的。另一种类型的 STO 是创业公司的股权发行。

 

凯撒 – 那么与首次公开募股有何不同?

 

比利 – 现在很多公司都想维持 私有化,进行首次公开​​募股的成本以及所有监管和合规成本都是令人生畏的 – 特别是对于小公司而言。小型科技公司应该有办法通过出售某种类型的股权来筹集资金。

 

凯撒 – 这些公司能够支付股息吗?我假设这些都是仍未盈利的公司。

 

比利 – 他们不仅不会支付股息,也不会有经审计的账目,或者有任何义务向投资者解释任何事情。

 

凯撒 – 哇,太棒了。这个 STO 的东西如何体现在资产负债表上?

 

比利 – 我们还不确定。

 

凯撒 – 传统的金融理论会认为这种资产毫无价值,因为没有未来现金流。

 

比利 – Kaiser 别天真了。我们之前不是讨论过吗。传统金融已经死了。我们处于一种新的时代。别当一个逆趋势而行的人。

 

凯撒 – 我知道,我知道。但如果您出售这些和证券一样的资产,那么不需要在国家监管机构注册吗?

 

Billy – 小声点。。。别告诉任何人。我们低调行事。因为我们使用区块链和/或分布式分类帐技术,这些规则都不适用。最好的是,我们可以通过告诉投资者购买这些东西时实际上没有任何权益来免除我们所需要承担的任何法律责任。哈哈哈哈哈。

 

凯撒 – 拜托这个区块链太刺激了!你想怎么玩都行。

 

比利 – 是吧!也许我们唯一不能做的就是赚到收入。

 

凯撒 – 别担心。我很多住沙漠里的好朋友们,他们用钱现金不经大脑。他们不会让我们失望的。

 

 

 

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波莉口袋( Polly Pocket )的流动性问题

在最近的波莉口袋投资者日偷听到以下对话。

 

波莉口袋是波莉口袋资本论的( Polly Pocket Capital 的管理合伙人。该基金仅投资于加密币市场。

 

二蛋( Schmuck )是该基金的投资者。

 

波莉 – 欢迎大家参加投资者日活动。 2018 年对我们的基金来说是充满挑战的一年,但我们非常有信心长期为投资者带来卓越的回报。

 

二蛋 – 谈到绩效,我可以多了解一下您的基金实际拥有资产是什么吗?

 

波莉 – 好问题。 如您所知,我们并未透露具体内容,但我可以给您一个概述。我们的基金持有的资产可以分为上市和非上市代币两类。

 

二蛋– 请问上市和非上市是什么意思?我以为基金只允许投资一些已经在二级市场上交易的代币。

 

波莉 – 嗯,的确如此。 但我们同时看到了一些很棒的项目,所以我们设计了一个侧口袋。 侧口袋包含我们所有 Pre-ICO 交易。

 

二蛋- 嗯……所以基本上你们可以投资你喜欢的东西,不管基金的授权是什么?

 

波莉 – 简而言之,是的。

 

二蛋– 好吧。。。。 那你如何计算这些非流动的,未公开发售的代币?

 

波莉 – 如你所知,由于我们在行业的网络关系,我们在大众有投资机会前就可以进场。 通常情况下,比起上一轮进场的大众我们可以获得 70% – 90% 的折扣。然后我们以代币最后一轮价格的价格作为结算价格。

 

二蛋- 所以,如果你投资的价格是 1 美元,而最后一轮交易的总量可能占比非常小但以 10 美元的价格出售,你便增加了 10 倍的收益?

 

波莉 – 是的。

 

二蛋- 这是否也意味着我将被收取 10 倍价值的管理费?

 

波莉 – 是的。

 

二蛋- 今年你们基金投资的代币组合的流动性变得非常的差,对吗?

 

波莉 – 是的。

 

二蛋- 由于侧口袋的价格标记方法,资金管理规模正以越来越快的速度在淌血。我支付的 2% 管理费是以代币价格的 10 倍来计算,这些代币没有二级市场,并且不知道未来猴年马月可以在二级市场出售该代币?

 

波莉 – 实际情况没有你描述的那么糟,但基本上是差不多的。

 

二蛋- 您是否在计算代币价格时会将这些没有流动性和不确定未来上市日期的代币估值打折计算?

 

波莉 – 不。我们认为这是极端情况才会出现的,而这已经反映在上一轮价格中。我们的代币专家团队知道如何为这些代币进行估值。

 

二蛋- 也许吧,但这些侧口袋投资的管理费可能会消耗投资者资本的全部价值。 如果我想退出会怎么样?

 

波莉 – 我们会首先出售我们的流动性较强的代币。 一旦资金池清光了,我们将无法满足您的退出请求。

 

二蛋- 有没有办法出售你持有的这些低流动性项目的权益?你尝试过吗?

 

波莉 – 从法律上讲,我们无法出售。 SAFT 条款不允许我们在代币上市之前出售我们的权益。

 

二蛋- 所以基本上你是在告诉我,我等于上了贼船了?

 

波莉 – 我不会这么表述。我们不常遭遇流动性问题。

 

真心对话

BitMEX 研究团队编制了一份已经筹集超过 5,000 万美元且未上市的代币清单。

这些项目的估值巨大,许多最受尊敬的代币基金都投入了大量资金。目前尚不清楚这些项目何时会在二级市场上出售。

鉴于那里有大量的代币供应,又有谁会买这些代币?

你真的可以将这些投资价格用上一轮的价格来计算吗?

有传闻称有资金试图出售其 SAFT 权益,而且标示出来的价格远低于上一轮的价格。

2019 年将成为许多基金被审判的一年。您可以在投资的第 1 年将这些资产以荒谬的价格来计算。但是仪表将在 1 月 1 日再次启动。 如果这些资产上市了,那就无法再用会计技巧来掩盖这些基金的巨额亏损。

 

 

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忏悔

在纽约市的圣帕特里克大教堂无意中听到以下对话。

 

犹大是以太坊的程序开发员;他运气不太好。他现在在教堂忏悔。  

 

神父是主教。

 

犹大 – 原谅我神父,因为我犯了罪。我上次忏悔已经是一年以前了。  

 

神父 – 来,我的儿子,请告诉我你犯了什么罪。  

 

犹大 – 你知道,我是以太坊的开发者。但我相信我向另一位上帝作了假见证。  

 

神父 – 那是谁,魔鬼,撒旦本人吗?  

 

犹大 – 没有。神父,我的信仰迷失了。我曾经相信了去中心化 。  

 

神父 – 嗯?我不太了解。你能解释一下吗?


犹大 – 我是以太坊的开发者。你知道吗,就是世界上的虚拟电脑。我相信使用以太坊协议我可以将所有东西去中心化。特别是我感兴趣的金融资产​​交易,比如股票。

 

神父 – 好的,但去中心化的股票市场会是什么样子?

 

犹大 – 嗯,任何人在任何地方都可以交易股票。您无需获得任何政府或纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克等传统交易所的批准。它还允许任何人将他们项目的股权出售给世界上的任何人。简而言之,每个人,都将拥有真正财务自由。

 

神父 – 异端邪说。你打算与天使抗衡吗?和纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克交易所为敌吗?你没有查阅关于我们的主与这些组织的关系的好书吗?

 

犹大 – 我查阅了,但我认为因为我使用了去中心化的世界电脑,以太坊,我们的主不会介意。

 

神父 – 儿子,你仍没有读足够多的福音书。具体来说,是豪伊的福音。

 

犹大 – 嗯,我认为我的律师对福音书非常了解。他们告诉我,因为它是去中心化的,所以豪伊的福音并不适用。  

 

神父 –  [悲伤地摇头]在我的上一篇讲道中,我传讲主的孩子们必须警惕假先知。特别是那些穿着布莱尼奥( Brioni )西服和白色 Church’s 品牌的鞋子。这些白鞋律师所关心的不是你的灵魂,而是他们的口袋。  

 

犹大 – 哦,我没想到。我们宿醉并在著名夜店住了一晚。我们当时正在庆祝我们的 ICO 。  

 

神父 – 啊, ICO 。我对魔鬼的工具非常警惕。但我的儿子,如果你推出 ICO 并从中获利,那这个项目如何去中心化?一个真正去中心化的项目不是应该没有可识别的领导者,没有一个实体从其运营中获利吗?  

 

犹大 – 我现在意识到了我的方式的错误。  

 

神父 – 主怎么让你悔改?  

 

犹大 – 主命令我付出一大笔钱才能免除我的罪过。  

 

神父 – 那也比上帝送你到所多玛和蛾摩拉,也就是雷克斯岛监狱来得好  

 

犹大 – 我知道,我永远感激主的怜悯。  

 

神父 – 我很高兴你学会懂了。我们的主是仁慈的。但衪必向那些威胁衪的王国的人显明愤怒。  

 

神父 – 让我们向我们的主和救主祷告。奉主及伊杰克莱顿( JAY CLAYTON )(美国证监会主席)的圣名祈祷。

 

 

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完全去中心化

我正盯著我的仙人掌毛绒玩具,我想有没有人试图完全去中心化?后来,我发了一条简讯给 Meltem 然后开始了我们的对话,以下的想法表现出 2018 年有多荒谬。

 

我将用这份简报来解释完全去中心化的概念。我已经看到了未来,许多加密投资者将在未来对这去中心化很熟悉,尽管他们还不知道。

 

 

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BlockMEX STO

Remember BlockMEX? Well the firm has limped along for several years. They have tried various business models. None have made any money. But that doesn’t matter, VC firms continue to shower the company with cash, and its valuation continues to rise. The CEO now has a great new idea. Let’s listen in on the recent board meeting.


Billy – Billy is the CEO of the company. He just joined as the previous dude got ousted. The VC firm The Blind Fund, who supplies most of the cash, ousted the previous CEO in favour of Billy who they thought would play ball better.

Kaiser Soze – One of the general partners at The Blind Fund.

Kaiser Soze – So Billy, what are we going to do to get some traction? It’s been over four years, and BlockMEX still makes zero revenue. You guys need to do something new.

Billy – Well, I have a new idea. ICOs are toxic. The projects are trash, and the regulators hate them. What about STOs, Securities Token Offerings?

Kaiser Soze – Tell me more.

Billy – Ok, so imagine you want to buy a fraction of a piece of real estate. And then you could trade your fractional ownership, which is represented by a token.

Kaiser Soze – Call me old fashioned, but isn’t that just a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)? Most stock markets around the world already have those.

Billy – But do REIT’s ride on a Blockchain? Do they use Distributed Ledger Technology to hold the record of the title?

Kaiser Soze – No, but they trade billions of dollars a day already, and you can easily trade them with your local broker almost everywhere in the world.

Billy – You don’t get it. If the token rides on a Blockchain, like the Ethereum protocol, then they reach help anyone anywhere. Like those poor investors in North Korea who have nowhere to put their savings. Now they can own a token.

Kaiser Soze – Anyone, really?!! It’s pretty clear these are securities, right?

Billy – Yes.

Kaiser Soze – So that means they are regulated, and in most places the exchange needs some sort of license.

Billy – Yes, that’s correct.

Kaiser Soze – The same license the incumbent exchanges already possess?

Billy – Correct.

Kaiser Soze – And the technology stack that operates the matching engine must also be approved by the regulator, right?

Billy – Correct.

Kaiser Soze – So you are replicating the same technology, getting the same license, to go after the same client base?

Billy – Correct.

Kaiser Soze – Ok, sounds like a winner. We can keep pumping money in, and make it up on volume. [The Blind Fund never saw a negative gross margin business they didn’t like.]

Billy – Exactly what I was thinking. Everyone is talking about STOs and how they are the future. Another type of STO is an equity offering of a startup.

Kaiser Soze – So how would that be different than doing an IPO?

Billy – Well many companies these days are staying private, the cost of doing an IPO and all the regulatory and compliance costs, are daunting—-especially for smaller companies. There should be a way for smaller technology companies to raise funds by selling some type of equity.

Kaiser Soze – Would these companies pay dividends? I’m assuming these are unprofitable companies.

Billy – Not only would they not pay dividends, there would be no audited accounts, or any duty to really explain anything to their investors.

Kaiser Soze – Wow, that’s amazing. How would this STO thing fit in on the balance sheet?

Billy – Not sure on that one yet.

Kaiser Soze – Traditional financial theory would suggest that this token is worthless because there is no cash flow.

Billy – Come’on Kaiser. We have been through this before. Traditional finance is dead. We are in a new paradigm. Don’t be a luddite.

Kaiser Soze – I know, I know. But if you are selling equity like securities, wouldn’t that need to be registered with a national regulator?

Billy – Shhhhhh.. Don’t tell anyone. We are just going to shoe horn this one in. Because we use a Blockchain and or Distributed Ledger Technology, those rules don’t apply. The best part is, we can absolve ourselves of any legal liability by basically telling investors when they buy these things they actually have zero rights. ROFL.

Kaiser Soze – Man, this Blockchain shit is LIT! You can do anything.

Billy – I know, right? Maybe the only thing we can’t do is become revenue positive.

Kaiser Soze – Don’t worry about that. I know some people in the desert, who have more cash than brains. They won’t let us down.

 

Polly Pocket Has Liquidity Issues

Overheard at the recent Polly Pocket Investor Day.

Polly Pocket is the managing partner of Polly Pocket Capital. The fund invests solely in tokens.

Schmuck is an investor in the fund.

Polly – Welcome everyone to our Investor Day. 2018 has been a challenging year for our fund but we are fully confident in our ability, over the long run, to deliver superior returns.

Schmuck – Speaking of performance, can I get some more colour on what your fund actually holds?

Polly – Great question. As you know, we don’t disclose exactly what we own, but I can give you a taste. Our fund is divided into listed and unlisted tokens.

Schmuck – Ok, what do you mean by listed and unlisted? I thought the mandate only allowed the fund to invest in tokens that are already traded on a secondary market.

Polly – Well, that is true. But we saw some great deals, so we created a side pocket. The side pocket contains all the pre-ICO deals that we invested in.

Schmuck – Hmm…So you basically can invest in whatever you like, regardless of the fund mandate?

Polly – In a nutshell, yes.

Schmuck – Greeeeaaat. How do you mark these illiquid, unlisted tokens?

Polly – As you know, due to our amazing connections, we get in on deals well before the unwashed masses. Typically we get a 70% – 90% discount to the last round where most of the plebes purchase these tokens. We then mark the value of the token to the last round price.

Schmuck – So if you invest a price of $1,and the last round which could be a very small amount of the total float, is sold at $10, you record a 10x gain?

Polly – Yes.

Schmuck – Does that also mean that I get charged management fees on the 10x value?

Polly – Yes.

Schmuck – Your liquid token portfolio got molly whopped this year, correct?

Polly – Yes.

Schmuck – So the AUM will get bled at an accelerated rate due to the marking of the side pocket? I’m am paying 2% on a 10x marked up illiquid token with no secondary market, and there is no visibility as to when it will actually list?

Polly – I mean that sounds worse than it is, but you are essentially correct.

Schmuck – Do you apply a haircut to this valuation because there is no liquidity, and an indefinite time to listing?

Polly – No. We believe there is extreme value, and this is reflected in the last round price. Our team of token experts really knows how to value these things.

Schmuck – Maybe, but the management fees paid on these side pocket investments could consume the entire value of the investors’ capital. What happens if I would like to redeem?

Polly – We would sell our liquid tokens first. Once that pool of capital is exhausted, we would be unable to meet your redemption request.

Schmuck – Is there no way to sell your interest in these projects? Have you ever tried?

Polly – Legally we can’t. The SAFT term sheet does not allow us to transfer our interest before the token lists.

Schmuck – So basically you are telling me, I’m up shit creek without a paddle?

Polly – I wouldn’t put it that way. Sometimes we suffer liquidity issues.

REAL TALK

The BitMEX Research team has compiled a list of tokens that raised over US$50 million that have yet to list.

 

 

These deals have massive valuations, and many of the most venerated token funds took down large chunks. It is unclear when, if ever, these deals will ever list on the secondary market.

Given the large amount of token supply out there, who will buy this shit?

Can you really mark these investments to the last round price?

There are anecdotal reports of funds attempting to sell their SAFT interest, and the prices offered were way below the last round price.

2019 is going to be the year of reckoning for many funds. You can mark something to an absurd level in year 1. But the meter starts again on January 1st. If these things come to market, there will be no accounting tricks to hide the gargantuan losses that these funds will post.