Hong Kong Altcoin Arbitrage Seminar

Bitcoin trading strategies are becoming more well known; however, other digital currencies (altcoins) are also gaining in popularity. BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes, will lead a seminar on how to apply simple arbitrage strategies to the altcoin universe.

Arthur will discuss the following strategies:

– Cash and Carry Arbitrage
– Create to Lend
– Altcoin Market Making
– ICO trading using derivatives

 

Date: 17 May 2017

Time: 7pm – 9pm

Location: The Hive, 23 Luard Rd, 21/F The Phoenix, Wanchai, Hong Kong

Cost: Free

Please RSVP using Eventbrite.

Notice Regarding Gnosis Futures Contracts

The following will be effective 2 May 2017 12:00 UTC:

  • The .GNOXBT Index will use the most liquid GNO/XBT spot exchange’s price. At this moment, it appears that the most liquid exchange will be Poloniex.
  • GNOM17 will switch from Last Price to Fair Price Marking. Please read Fair Price Marking for more details on how this will affect trading.
  • The Limit Up / Down restrictions will be removed.

Same Same But Different

Bitcoin and Money Services Businesses (MSB) find it very difficult to open and maintain bank accounts. The global hysteria over possible venues for money laundering (unless of course you are HSBC) has caused banks globally to curtail their support of MSB clients.

Several exchanges figured out that Taiwanese banks would bank them with minimal issues. The two most well known exchanges utilising Taiwanese bank accounts are Bitfinex and OKCoin International.

The American perception of Taiwanese banks lately is that of financial institutions with lax KYC / AML procedures. Read the following excerpt from a Reuters article about problems with Taiwan’s Mega Financial last October.

It is the second bank branch of the state-controlled firm to run afoul of U.S. financial authorities, after its New York branch was fined $180 million for lax compliance and anti-money laundering violations in August.

Mega Financial, which has close ties to Taiwan’s government, has been under scrutiny since about 200 of its customers were named in the so-called Panama Papers, a massive leak of documents from a Panamanian law firm that put the spotlight on the shadowy world of offshore companies used to avoid tax.

In order for Taiwanese banks to maintain their banking relationships in America, they must update their KYC / AML procedures for MSB clients. Unfortunately a large swath of MSB clients will be deemed too expensive to bank, and will be jettisoned.

Compliance is extremely expensive. Banks waste billions of USD a year on compliance and compliance related technology. It only serves to further protect incumbent financial institutions at the expense of small and innovative upstarts.

Bitfinex, OKCoin, and possibly other Bitcoin exchanges are affected. It may be that they have been told their accounts will not longer by active by a certain date. They are now scrambling for alternatives.

Bitfinex officially announced that both USD deposits and withdrawals are halted. OKCoin International has posted a notice that all USD deposits will be refused by their banking partner in Taiwan. Many old-timers know that the suspension of fiat deposits and withdrawals heralds tough times ahead for any Bitcoin exchange.

To some traders, this feeling is all too familiar. Mt Gox’s slow motion bankruptcy began in 2013 when their USD held in America was frozen. As users rushed for the exits, the Bitcoin thought to be held in custody was not there. In early 2014, Mt Gox shut its doors and filed for bankruptcy.

While traders are right to be nervous, it is not a given that Bitfinex and or OKCoin will be unable to operate. Yet, careful traders will take action. This post will examine how to get your money off the platform, and for those risk seeking traders, arbitrage opportunities that will arise during this time of stress.

Correspondent Banking

The biggest hurdle to successfully operating a Bitcoin/Fiat exchange is obtaining and maintaining a bank account. The quality of the banking relationships held by the exchange is a large success determining factor.

Most Taiwanese banks have branches throughout the Asia Pacific region. However, most do not have branches in the US. Ultimately that means that movement of USD between non-Taiwanese entities must pass through a correspondent bank in the US.

The correspondent bank is fully licensed to do business inside America, and can clear USD. Without the assistance of a correspondent bank, exchanges’ Taiwanese banks cannot process USD deposits and or withdrawals for foreign entities. Given that the majority of Bitfinex and OKCoin’s customers are not Taiwanese, most if not all incoming and outgoing USD must be processed with the assistance of a correspondent bank.

Wells Fargo, The Canary in the Coal Mine

In late March, according to a lawsuit filed by Bitfinex, Wells Fargo ceased processing outgoing USD SWIFT wire transfers from Bitfinex’s Taiwanese bank accounts. Wells Fargo is the correspondent bank for the various banks Bitfinex uses in Taiwan. The lawsuit alleged that $180 million of USD was effectively frozen.

This lawsuit is one of the only public windows the community received into the struggle between Taiwan banking institutions and their American correspondent banks. A similar situation may have occurred with OKCoin, but they did not choose to fight back through a public lawsuit.

Bitfinex vs. Wells Fargo Lawsuit

Get Me Outta Here

Bitfinex and OKCoin USD IOU holders are rightfully concerned. All is not lost. There are still ways to remove funds from these platforms.

The easiest way is for users to buy Bitcoin and withdraw it. Then they can sell that Bitcoin on another platform. As more users exit via this method, the price of Bitcoin rises on Bitfinex and OKCoin relative to other exchanges. Those exiting these exchanges are pushing up the price globally.

Users can use altcoins such as Litecoin or Ether to exit as well. At the time of writing, the Bitfinex premium to buy alts with USD is similar to buying Bitcoins. Given the low liquidity in altcoins, this may not be cheaper.

Bitfinex first indicated in a blog post,  that users could withdraw funds via Swiss Francs (CHF) and Hong Kong Dollars (HKD). However a few days later, they announced that their bank refused to process any outgoing wires in any currency.

The solution now put forward is to wash funds through their lawyer’s trust account. They claim that as creditors of Bitfinex, users can withdraw via this method only once. Those lucky enough to have domestic Taiwanese bank accounts face no issues withdrawing any fiat currency.

As of right now, OKCoin has not issued any announcements regarding the status of funds in their Taiwan bank accounts.

Arbitrage

Risk and profit seeking traders will be able to conduct arbitrage trades during this funding crunch. The trade I describe below is the most obvious.

  1. Buy Bitcoin outside of Bitfinex.
  2. Sell Bitcoin for USD on Bitfinex at a premium.
  3. Withdraw HKD to your bank account from Bitfinex.
  4. Wire the funds at your bank rate back into USD to a cheap Bitcoin/USD exchange.
  5. Rinse and repeat.

The ability to execute this trade is predicated on the ability to withdraw HKD or another fiat currency easily and quickly from Bitfinex. Given the recent updates, this assumption is questionable. All MSBs globally face similar issues, it may be weeks if not months before Bitfinex, OKCoin, or any other affected exchange is able to establish banking relationships again.

Due to the halt of Bitcoin withdrawals in China, XBT/CNY trades at a 15% discount to Bitstamp and GDAX. Therefore the premium on exchanges where fiat cannot be withdrawn, could easily reach a similar 15% premium.

Bitcoin / HKD: Bitfinex and OKCoin’s Savior

Days after filing, Bitfinex withdrew the lawsuit against Wells Fargo. Suing a correspondent bank in America may have been lights out for Bitfinex’s current and future banking relationships. To make matters worse, it may have attracted attention to other exchanges. If Wells Fargo is blocking Bitcoin exchanges, other banks should be thinking: should we block them too?

For now, there is still some hope. For every HKD issued, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority backs it with an equivalent amount of USD. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will conduct open market operations to maintain a peg between 7.75 to 7.80 USD. While the peg holds, HKD is a liquid proxy for USD. If Bitfinex and or OKCoin can launch a liquid XBT/HKD market, they can continue to effectively serve as the most liquid XBT/USD spot markets.

Clearing HKD does not require funds to transit through the American banking system. Most of the world just wants to do business, and not worry about hypocritical moralising American politicians’ inspired regulations. Given enough effort, time, and willingness to pay high fees, exchanges will find banking partners willing to process HKD wires.

The on and off-ramps between digital currencies and fiat continue to cause significant friction. However, once traders squeeze through fiat gateways into the crypto universe, the trading opportunities are rich. If you desire a product to speculate on the value of Bitcoin without touching fiat, consider trading the BitMEX Bitcoin / USD Swap, XBTUSD.

Strongman Bullies and Bitcoin

Trump, Xi Jinping, Putin, and Erdogan: these four men are the embodiment of Strongman Bully leaders. Global trends indicate we will soon have more world leaders with similar mindsets.

Over the past 30 years, throngs of Chinese, Russians, and Turks have become rich. The masses held their tongue, while the elite shamelessly lined their pockets. In China, the wealth amassed in coastal cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou stands in stark contrast to the developing and rural interior. Similar disparities exist in the metro areas of Russia and Turkey.

Xi, Putin, and Erdogan are all promising to restore the bargain with labour at the expense of capital. In previous decades, the masses have accepted disproportionally slow wage growth so long as their standard of living continued to increase. As global growth sputters, the bargain has become less tenable. The plebes are getting restless.

The marginal effectiveness of printing money to generate GDP output is waning. To make matters worse, population growth is shrinking in end markets like America and Europe. In response, central banks are reducing asset purchases. The net result will be higher interest rates and less trade.

All strongman bullies in all countries cannot be successful at the same time. Instead of trading for what they need, these leaders are likely to threaten to take what they need through war. A desperate leader can apply physical force to take resources, disrupt competing markets, and distract the local population from failed promises.

During times of war, assessing financial counterparty risk becomes a key investment survival skill. Will a USD deposit held in a Russian bank be worth the same as one held in an American bank? Every asset that you own must be evaluated on the basis of two concerns: beating domestic inflation and movement friction. In times of war, we are very likely to see inflation in necessity goods and deflation in other goods.

Where will the masses turn? Gold has value everywhere and is likely to triumph during these times. Recently, gold rallied when Trump authorised a missile strike against Syria, and when North Korea announced a potential nuclear missile test. Further rallies will come if global instability grows.

Bitcoin fits into this dynamic. Despite all of the issues it faces, it has persevered for over 8 years and still has substantial global value. Consider that as a vote of confidence in its ability to serve as a safe haven asset for a small pool of global capital.

Regardless of your political stance, the next 30 years will not be like the last. Highly intense regional conflicts are likely to flare up again. As desperate citizens look to store and transport wealth in the digital era, Bitcoin looks more attractive than ever.

Gnosis: Shitcoin or Supernova?

Summer is near, that means it’s time to forget Bitcoin and embrace altcoins. The summer of 2016 began with the DAOsaster. The DAO became the largest crowd-sale in human history by raising $150 million in under one month. A few weeks later, in-built security holes allowed an individual to syphon off one third of the funds invested.

The Gnosis ICO will go down in the history books. Investors purchased $12.5 million Gnosis tokens (symbol: GNO) at a price of $29.85, giving GNO a market cap of $298.5 million. The cap of $12.5 million was reached in ten minutes. Investors subscribed for 4.19% of the total GNO float, the other 95.81% is held by the Gnosis development team. Holy pre-mine!

Pre-Mine Token Distribution:

  • 10% will be used to incentivise the Gnosis team over a period of several years. However, there is no explicit lock-up period.
  • The remaining 90% are held by Gnosis LTD. These coins will be used to incentivise others to build applications on top of the Gnosis platform. 99% of these funds are locked-up for 12 months.

Total Potential Float: 4.19% ICO + 9.58% Gnosis Team + 0.86% Gnosis LTD = 14.63%

Gnosis aims to create a truly decentralised prediction market. This is a lofty goal that many entrepreneurs and teams are working towards such as Augur, a competing Ethereum based prediction market project.

GNO tokens can be used to buy WIZ tokens (no this isn’t the 70’s Wizard of Oz remake featuring Michael Jackson). WIZ tokens are used to:

  • Pay trading fees
  • Create markets
  • Speculate on event outcomes
  • Subsidise markets and participation fees

The Gnosis team is very quick to point out the following:

 GNO tokens are functional utility tokens within the Gnosis platform. GNO tokens are not securities. GNO tokens are non-refundable. GNO tokens are not for speculative investment. No promises of future performance or value are or will be made with respect to GNO, including no promise of inherent value, no promise of continuing payments, and no guarantee that GNO will hold any particular value. GNO tokens are not participation in the Company and GNO tokens hold no rights in said company. GNO tokens are sold as a functional good and all proceeds received by Company may be spent freely by Company absent any conditions. GNO tokens are intended for experts in dealing with cryptographic tokens and blockchain-based software systems.

Instead of the traditional ICO model where a token price and supply are set by the team, GNO tokens were issued via a reverse Dutch auction.

Historically ICO’s are underpriced, and once they list in the secondary market, they moon. This price appreciation benefits token buyers and not the team. In the Dutch auction model, the Gnosis team is the biggest beneficiary because their pre-mined stash is instantly worth a lot more … on paper.

With a $300 million market cap GNO, in under ten minutes, has become the 8th most valuable digital currency. Many think this is scandalous. However, armed with nothing more than a slick website and a promise to deliver, Gnosis right now is proving to be an altcoin heavyweight.

Others believe in the future promise of a truly decentralised prediction market. The centralised online gambling and prediction market is massive. If Gnosis only partially delivers on their mission statement, it will still be bigly valuable.

Whether Gnosis is a shitcoin or supernova is a question that only the market can answer. Because BitMEX is committed to providing price discovery, we have launched the Gnosis / Bitcoin 30 June 2017 futures contract, GNOM17.

Traders can go long or short GNOM17 using only Bitcoin, with up to 2x leverage. GNOM17 begins trading before GNO tokens list on any secondary spot market. Trading on Kraken and or Poloniex will most likely begin in under a week.

GNOM17 Contract Details

Bitcoin / USD Swap Funding Rate Calculation Changes

Due to the ongoing issues at various Bitcoin exchanges with regards to depositing and withdrawing fiat currencies, there has become no credible source for overnight USD and Bitcoin lending rates.

The BitMEX Bitcoin / USD Swap, XBTUSD, currently uses the Bitfinex overnight USD and Bitcoin lending rate in the funding rate calculation. Effective 21 April 2017 12:00 UTC, the interest rate component of the funding rate calculation will be fixed at a positive 0.03% per day.

To arrive at this number, we calculated the average difference between the Bitfinex daily USD and Bitcoin lending rates for a 12 month period ending 31 March 2017 to arrive at the positive 0.03% rate.

If the swap price does not trade at a premium or discount during a funding calculation period (currently 8 hours in length), longs will pay shorts 0.01%. This equates to a daily rate of positive 0.03%.

When the deposits and withdrawals of fiat and Bitcoin are operating normally, we will select an appropriate exchange from which to source overnight USD and Bitcoin rates.

New Protections for BitMEX Indices

Traders,

During the past weeks, many major exchanges have experienced issues with their banking relationships, and one sent incorrect prices. These prices caused liquidations on multiple platforms, including BitMEX. Affected traders were reimbursed from BitMEX funds.

We intend for the BitMEX index to accurately represent asset prices on functioning, liquid exchanges. Unfortunately, the landscape is shifting quickly. We expect more index changes to come as exchanges lose and regain their banking relationships.

In preparation for this, we are instituting the following protections to all BitMEX calculated indices:

  • For an index with 3 or more constituents, if any constituent’s price is X% away from the median price, that constituent will be removed until BitMEX manually reinstates it.
  • For an index with 2 constituents, if any constituent’s price is (X% / 2) away from the currently calculated index value, the index value published will be the last calculated index value.
  • For an index with only 1 constituent, if the constituent’s price is X% away from the last calculated index value, the index price will remain unchanged.

For Bitcoin / Fiat currency pair based contracts, the tolerance will be 25%. For Altcoin contracts, the tolerance will be 50%. The tolerance is subject to change with notice.

Additionally, the following protection has been in place since launch:

  • If any constituent exchange’s API feed is not responsive, the last valid price is used. If an exchange’s feed is stale for over 15 minutes, it is removed until the feed is operational again.

Example 1 (3-Exchange Index):

The index is equally weighted between exchanges A, B, and C. The initial price on exchanges A, B, and C is 100, and the tolerance is 25%. The median index price is 100. The price observed on exchange C changes to 50. Exchange C will be removed, the index price will remain at 100, and the index will now be equally weighted between exchanges A and B.

Example 2 (2-Exchange Index):

Tolerance: 25%

Time 0:

Exchange A Price: 100

Exchange B Price: 100

Published Index Price: 100

Time 1:

Exchange A Price: 100

Exchange B Price: 50

New Calculated Index Price: 75

Last Published Index Price: 100

New Published Index Price: 100

Because the difference between the two exchange prices and the New Calculated Index Price is greater than 12.5% (Tolerance / 2), the Last Published Index Price will be used.

Time 2:

Exchange A Price: 50

Exchange B Price: 50

New Calculated Index Price: 50

Last Published Index Price: 100

New Published Index Price: 50

Because the difference between the two exchange prices and the New Calculated Index Price is less than 12.5%, the New Calculated Index Price will be used.

Example 3 (1-Exchange Index):

The index is made up only of exchange A. The price on exchange A moved from 100 to 50. Given that the tolerance is 25%, and exchange A’s price moved 50% (50 vs. 100), the index value remains at 100. If exchange A’s price changes to 51, the index value will still remain at 100. If exchange A’s price were to change to 80, the index value would become 80.

Example 4 (Downtime):

The index is equally weighted between exchanges A, B, C, and D. The API feed for Exchange D has been down for 15 minutes. Exchange D will be removed, and the index will now be equally weighted between A, B, and C. 5 minutes later, D begins responding and is reinstated.

The Rock Is In The Building

Litecoin is affectionately referred to as “rock” by many crypto traders. Litecoin has acted like a rock in trader’s bags since it hit its all time high of $40 in 2013. The technical merits of why Litecoin should be worth more than $0 are few and far between. Litecoin exists on life support only because Chinese traders for some reason enjoy trading it. Mainly that is because it is the only shitcoin the big three Chinese exchanges (BTCC, Huobi, OKCoin) offer.

During the current 2017 altcoin bubble, rock caught a stray bid. The pump and dump operators finally decided it was Litecoin’s time to shine. Rock is up almost 200% since late March.

The narrative supporting the rally is that SegWit is close to being activated. The activation threshold on Litecoin is 75% vs. 95% for Bitcoin. Litecoin is a CTRL+C, CTRL+V of Bitcoin. The slight changes include being Scrypt mined, and a block time of 2.5 minutes on average.

Many traders point to Litecoin as proof that if Bitcoin activates SegWit the price should explode higher as well. Some seriously delusional traders con themselves into believing Litecoin could actually serve as a replacement for Bitcoin if the Core vs. Bitcoin Unlimited civil war results in a contentious hard fork.

Oblivious traders are filling their bags with new shiny rocks. How do I know? Because in a recent tweet, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said they will list a Litecoin / USD pair. Altcoin pumps begin in earnest on Poloniex, and end when exchanges such as Coinbase and / or Bitfinex decide to list them.

A recent example of this phenomenon was Ether in Spring 2016. After a lacklustre performance in the secondary market from listing in August 2015 until January 2016, Ether ignited and went asymptotic. The peak during that particular rally was reached when Bitfinex announced it would list ETH. As soon as ETH listed on Bitfinex, the dump began.

Exchanges late to the party, even BitMEX is guilty of this from time to time, signal that peak fomo is near. Those traders tempting fate by holding Litecoin should be cautious. It isn’t called rock for nothing.

Baby Got BOOST

Before today, I would have thought ASICBOOST was a new form of energy drink. It even could be the long awaited reincarnation of 4Loco. Sadly that would not be nerdy enough.

An email from Greg Maxwell made the rounds yesterday, and is causing an uproar. Bitcoin Magazine published an article about the email that is going viral throughout the Bitcoin industry.

TLDR

  • An unnamed leading mining equipment manufacturer is using a patented technology, called ASICBOOST, to achieve efficiency gains of up to 30%.
  • If activated, Segregated Witness (SegWit) would eliminate any advantage for miners using the ASICBOOST technology.
  • Therefore the reason why large miners refuse to support SegWit activation is because they would lose their economic advantage.
  • Maxwell proffered a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal to eliminate gains achieved by using the ASICBOOST technology.
  • Although not explicitly mentioned, everyone assumes Maxwell spoke of Jihan Wu’s Bitmain.

Let’s Assume It’s True

The purpose of this piece is not to argue whether or not I believe Maxwell. Rather I believe for good or bad, many in the community will agree with Maxwell’s analysis and there will be a discernible impact on the Bitcoin price.

My base case is that SegWit will not be activated, and there will be no hard fork this year. If Jihan Wu is truly a Chinese devil (or Gweilo if he was white), and can secretly mine Bitcoin 30% cheaper than everyone else, my base case will hold.

If Bitmain captures above average profits mining Bitcoin as it currently stands, they have no reason to actually desire a contentious hard fork. They also would not want SegWit to smash the piggy bank. Therefore the optimal strategy is to vocally support a hard fork to erode support for SegWit.

SegWit to many is a convoluted way to scale Bitcoin. Many would just prefer a simple increase in the block size from 1MB to 2MB. However, Bitmain would never go so far as to actually conduct said hard fork.

In essence, Jihan can buy a new pad on the Hong Kong Peak each year under the status quo. Despite high Bitcoin network transaction fees, the price keeps rising. Users prefer Bitcoin as a store of value and a global form of money good collateral, to a fast and cheap payments network.

A continuation of the status quo is bullish for the price. The price dipped from $1,200 to below $900 on fears of a paradigm shift. If you believe the arguments put forth by Maxwell, then it makes business sense for Jihan to prefer the current small block, high fee, rising price situation.

The Market Hath Spoken

The price is steadily rising post publication of said article. If the community believes in the veracity of the claims put forward, the price will shortly surpass $1,200 and retest $1,300.

无限期拘留

对冲基金兄弟1号徐翔,如上图所示,曾经是一个高飞的对冲基金经理,从来没有输过。有一天,他失踪了。他被控证券欺诈后,现在坐在监狱,并在他几个月后复出。一些人担心比特币交易所负责人可能面临同样的命运。 但是,人民银行显示了怜悯。

另一周,中国人民银行和中国大型比特币交易所负责人之间的另一次“会晤”。 3月7日会议后不久,人民银行发表声明,重申他们有权关闭他们认为不当的交易所。

几天后,财新上就出现了可采取行动的罪行清单。 [News.bitcoin.com]

禁止以下活动:

  • 提供杠杆和保证金交易。
  • 使用零手续费操控市场及假冒交易。
  • 违反反洗钱法律。
  • 违反关于外币管理和跨境资本转移与比特币的规定。
  • 通过使用比特币代替商品购买商品。
  • 逃税。
  • 参与诈骗广告或参与庞氏计划。
  • 提供没有许可证的金融服务,包括信贷,证券和期货交易。

在“友好”会议后,宣布无限期暂停比特币提款。 没有进一步提示何时恢复比特币提款。 价格下跌了一点,然后就被忘掉。 到上周末,比特币将以美元计算,创下新高。

中国监管机构认识到,他们不能关闭交易所。 关于上述交易所,一位监管机构注意到:

如果采取过度简化的措施,如关闭它们,投资者将被带入更难以控制的地下黑市或 OTC市场。 因此,有必要探索建立长期监管机制。[News.bitcoin.com]

新的战略是饿死弱者,规管强者。这个典型的中国式策略。政府允许行业在一段时间内不受阻碍地竞争,然后他们挑选最强的公司,通过拒绝批准关键许可证或执行不透明的法规来破坏其余的公司。

通过取消杠杆和零费用交易的灵丹妙药,只有具有多元化业务线的交易所才能生存。 现货收益比特币交易只对最大的交易所(BTCC,Huobi 和 OKCoin)有利。 不在该列表上的交易所将很可能 2018 年前消失。

所有这三个交易所都有采矿业务,支付解决方案和或离岸衍生品交易市场。 一旦弱势重叠,中国人民银行将保护大型在职者,并对他们进行严格监控。

从较长的时间来看,过去三个月的发展是积极的。但是比特币不会被监管机构“禁止”。 他们认识到底层技术的力量,并试图在现有的中国货币体系目标范围内使比特币合理化。

中国央行行长周在最近的一次采访中表示,中国比特币交易平台不是交易所,而只是“网站”。

(交易平台/网站)只能在被部门允许之下称为交易所。 许多人认为比特币在线交易平台作为交易所。 这些实际上是两个不同的概念。

[News.bitcoin.com]

目前的炼狱将会在中国人民银行的调整过人民币后结束。平静必须保持到10月全国代表大会。10月以后,北京将开放中国人民银行,缓解压力和贬值。在大幅贬值后,中国人民银行可以放松资本管制,届时逃离的中国资本控制的动力就会减少。 届时比特币提款将重新启用。

向前和向上

“如果你惹到公牛,他的角将会迎你而来!”

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)销售交易柜台的总经理曾经在每次市场走高时尖叫。就算工资不够固定收入部门的多,因为股票部门聘用了这些行业大牛, 在投行里还是很吸引的。

你会怎样看没有中国及 ETF 支持的比特币?历史新高。两个最核心看涨的因素跑了,但比特币仍然在 1200 美元以上交易。

可能导致价格下跌的下一个议题是正在进行的辩论。Segwit 与 BU 的内战不仅在网路小白间口耳相传,而且走到主流金融新闻网站如彭博上。 但无论如何,价格继续缓慢攀升。

在 Mt. Gox 的历史高位之后,我们正处于慢牛行情的序幕。这个慢牛行情将完全重新评估整个加密货币的币值。以太币的市值已经超过 20 亿美元,达世币也将会继续创新高。三个共超过 10 亿美元市值的山寨币是值得关注的。为山寨币喝采。

令人鼓舞的是,在2017年的比特币上涨中,实现波动性是减弱了。 上图显示了 30 天实现的波动率和 比特币/美元 价格。当中国人民银行首次打击时波动增强,但当比特币价格站稳 1200 美元后,波动率就继续下跌。

对于比特币,这个牛市是平静的。不少投资者仍缺乏信心。当价格继续攀升,怀疑论者会因为中国,监管机构扩大和缺乏合法性继续质疑着比特币。但当他们蓦然回首的时候,别人已经发财了。所以,错过几个亿(追多情绪,也称为 Fomo)的阶段其实言之尚早。

另一个令人鼓舞的是期货合约所反映的相对较低的基差水平。 在第一季度,BitMEX 比特币/美元 期货合约 XBTH17 (2017 年 3 月 31 日到期),曾以高达 10% – 13% 的基差水平来交易。

在 2013 年泡沫期间,ICBIT 的 2014 年 3 月季度期货,尽管只有3倍的杠杆,在 2013 年 12 月底居然以 100% 的基差交易。之后旋即崩盘,价格跌破 1000 美元,然后 800 美元,直到 600 美元,进入了整整两年的寒冬。

自那时起,市场已经成熟。然而,追多情绪将在 2017年 6 月 30 日 期货合约 XBTM17 的基差反映。即使有正向套利者持续的抛压,这个基差还是可以变的非常高,因为多军会使用 100 倍杠杆。

30 天实现波动率持续地超过 100%,加上在 XBTM17 超过 30% 的基准水平,将会是比特币能否在第二季度打下稳定基础的指南针。随着价格波动上涨,我们下一个的上行心理关口是 2,000 美元。