跟著曲线买入

 

BitMEX 比特币/美元 2018 年 12 月 28 日定期合约 XBTZ18 最近开始能够交易了。以下交易策略是假设短期内的现货价格将在 2018 年第 3 季度继续下跌,然后在 2018 年第 4 季度大幅反弹。这种情况还需要假设投资者情绪不会消失并假设将进入长期熊市。

然而,若您很有信心相信上述情况会发生,那么风险最大且最能获利的策略是:

  1. 从现在开始做空 XBTU18 ,直到您相信比特币已经触底。
  2. 平仓做空的 XBTU18 ,然后买入 XBTZ18 。

最初做空九月季度合约的原因是由于其较低的时间价值,该合约应该对现货价格的波动更敏感。它也更具流动性,因此恐慌的投机者和对冲交易员将选择该定期合约。其年化基差应以比 XBTZ18 的具有更大的折价。

买入 XBTZ18 等价格反弹的原因是因为它有更多的时间价值。如果市场确实按预期运行,投机者将哄抬曲线的尾端。到 12 月底前,很多事情都有可能发生。鉴于比特币是看涨期权,未来隐含波动率导致价格上涨而不是下跌的可能性更大。您所买卖的合约时间价值越多,长凸度合约就更大机会如你所愿的走。

如果您认为上述事件依然会发生,但希望降低风险,您则可以进行价差交易。风险降低的代价是降低了潜在收益率:

  1. 从现在开始买入 XBTU18 同时卖空 XBTZ18,持仓至您认为比特币已经触底 。
  2. 利用 XBTUSD 空仓代替以上的 XBTU18 空仓。

因为您预计抛压将发生在曲线的短端,所以期限结构将变得陡峭,导致 XBTU18 空仓的收益抵消了 XBTZ18 多仓的亏损。上面的期限结构图显示了 BitMEX 比特币/美元定期合约市场的当前曲率。它的幅度较平,这表明现在是开展这种价差交易的好时机。

这是一个价格中立的交易; 但请注意,每个仓位的保证金都是单独计算。 XBTU18 空仓的未实现收益不能用于抵消 XBTZ18 多仓的未实现亏损。

第二笔交易是资金费率加上买入十二月半年合约的基差交易。随着市场反弹,掉期将被推进溢价,这意味着空方将获得利息。由于时间价值较大,曲线的长端的年化基差亦会被推高。您能够同时赚取永续的利息以及定期合约的基差升值。这个交易也是价格中性的,您必须认识及确保到每个仓位的保证金到位。

我更喜欢使用差价交易来表达我对趋势的看法,原因是即便我的预测错了,我的本金也不会亏没。对未来预测的信念越大,我在每个仓位上使用的杠杆就越多,以提高我的资本回报率。

 

 

 

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波动性抑郁

全球的交易员们在价格由 20,000 美元下滑至 6,000 美元期间所经历的痛苦进一步证明,最近经历的损失比以往经历的收益更显得 “重要”。财经媒体和许多交易员似乎忘记了 18 个月前其价格仅仅为 1,000 美元,然后在 2015 年秋季价格仅为 200 美元。

刚进入市场的交易员/投资者被最近的价格波动给淘汰了。更糟糕的是,波动性也随着价格下跌而下跌。对于加密市场来说,波动性下跌造成的伤害比白葡萄酒加上止痛药更为致命。

那其比特币的实际应用性呢?妨碍比特币被市场广泛采用的一个主要原因是其价格波动太大。在单纯的比特币经济体系中,如果比特币的价值时常剧烈波动,人们如何将比特币与真实商品进行交易?这些差劲的交易员并没有真正了解这个新交易网络的 “核心” 价值。根据您过往的经验,有什么交易网络的代币可以在一年内价格增幅达到 20 倍?没有。因此,价格的驱动力不是在于当前应用,而是对未来应用价值的投机。

改变人们使用钱的方式是一个非常漫长而艰难的过程。这个过程本质上必然是混乱的。 金钱及其使用方式是根据个人习惯而不同的,有时受宗教影响。如果您向一个社会公告,明天的处事方法将与过去 200 年的方法不同,该社会对此改变会产生一种强烈的对抗性。暴力变革是必要的。因此,如果要使比特币成为有效的广泛应用货币,那么走向这个新时代的时期必定是极不稳定及波动的。

比特币是新货币体系的看涨期权。期权定价最重要的因素是标的资产的隐含波动率。如上图所示,实现的 30 天年化波动率与价格一起下跌。当波动率回升时,价格便会回升。

我们曾经经历过

2015 年的超级熊市始于该年 1 月,当时价格跌破 300 美元。在接下来的 10 个月里,价格在 200 美元到 300 美元之间。 虽然这范围在 50% 区间,但每日波动非常小。

没有波动,许多交易员,投资者和市场评论员都不再关注比特币。为什么人们要关注一个已经从最近的历史最高点跌了 80% 且没有波动性的资产?

交易员因为波动性重现而重返市场。如果比特币在 30 天内可以达到年化波动率 100% ,那么就投资者便可以拥有快速获利的工具。害怕踏空的 “投资者” 觉得在很短的时间内价格从 200 美元到 20,000 美元,他们认为可以用很少的努力改善他们未来的生活。从 2015 年到 2017 年,比特币在实际商业中的应用从根本上看来并没有太多变化。

重回 20,000 美元

在波动性大幅上升之前,回到历史高位之路不会真正开始。人们需要再次被振奋。一天 10% 的价格波动将带来好日子。真正的问题是哪一个催化剂能为派对鸣起前奏,以及它需要多长时间。

在 2017 年牛市期间,全球宏观事件对比特币的影响被遗忘了。 2018 年下半年,全球宏观事件证明了比特币是一种避险资产。 2015 年,希腊几乎告诉了弗劳·默克尔该怎么做,但他在十字路口退缩了。当市场认为希腊可以得到实际解放时,比特币的价格反应是积极的。如果在今年晚些时候发生类似的恐慌,比特币会重新获得避风港地位吗?

随着美联储,欧洲央行和日本央行实际上缓慢或直接减少其资产负债表规模,金融市场的裂缝将在今年晚些时候体现出来。从长远来看,货币印刷从来没有带来经济繁荣,当您关闭水龙头时,金融市场的冤魂和食尸鬼将会被释放出来。

MSM 依然喜爱比特币

值得庆幸的是,主流财经媒体喜欢谈论加密币。领导人物的个性大于生命。即使在比特币 6,000 美元和以太币 400 美元的情况下,大批富裕的人正在做出有趣的决定,媒体无法不报道他们。在 2015 年没有人在留意,而在 2018 年每个人都在留意。

为了证明自己的先见之明, MSM 将试图在比特币市场抄底。愚蠢的大众如果相信这些权威人士可以预示未来的话便会在刀口舐血。许多人会失败,但如果尝试的足够多次,有些人会成功。这些成功的散户将成为交易之神并在电视中播报着。这将进一步增加市场害怕错过的情绪,提高市场波动性和使得价格升值。

没有什么市场的价格是直线上升及下跌的。市场的痛苦指数仍未达到一个我们认为已经完成放血的程度。以比特币的过往作风来说,其价格将达到一个无人置信的水平,然后其反弹速度将快过任何交易员的抄底速度。

 

 

 

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Calling the Curve

The BitMEX Bitcoin / USD 28 December 2018 futures contract, XBTZ18, recently began trading. The following trade ideas assume that spot in the short term will continue to fall and bottom in 3Q2018, and then aggressively rebound into 4Q2018. This scenario also assumes that trader sentiment will not fall out and enter a protracted bear market.

However, if you have very high conviction in that scenario, the riskiest and potentially most profitable strategy would be to:

  1. Go short XBTU18 from now until you believe Bitcoin has bottomed.
  2. Cover the short XBTU18, and then go long XBTZ18.

The reason to go short the 3m initially is that it should be more responsive to spot movements due to its lower time value. It is also more liquid so panicked speculators and hedgers will use that futures contract. Its annualised basis should trade at a steeper discount than XBTZ18.

You go long XBTZ18 on the rebound because it has more time value. If the market does perform as you expect, speculators will bid up the backend of the curve. A lot of things can happen by the end of December. Given that Bitcoin is a call option, the future implied volatility has a greater probability of causing the price to rise rather than fall. The more time value housed in the instrument you are trading, the better change the long convexity can work in your favour.

If you believe this a credible sequence of events, but want to reduce risk, a spread trade is advisable. The reduced risk comes at a the cost of reduced profit potential.

  1. Go short XBTU18 vs. long XBTZ18 from now until you believe Bitcoin has bottomed.
  2. Replace the above short XBTU18 with a short on XBTUSD

Because you expect the sell pressure to happen at the short-end of the curve, the term structure will steepen causing the profit made on the short XBTU18 position to offset losses on the long XBTZ18 position. The term structure chart shown above shows the current curvature of the BitMEX Bitcoin / USD futures markets. It is relatively flat, which indicates now is the time to enter into this spread trade.

This is a price neutral trade; however, be aware that each position is margined separately. Unrealised profit from the short XBTU18 position cannot be used to offset unrealised losses from the long XBTZ18 position.
The second trade is a funding plus long 6m basis trade. As the market rebounds, the swap will be pushed into a premium which means shorts will receive funding. The long end of the curve will also get bid up in annualised basis terms due to the greater time value. You earn money from the swap funding, and futures basis appreciation. Again this trade is price neutral, and you must be cognizant of each positions’ margin.
The reason why I prefer the use of spread trades to express directional moves is that if my prediction is wrong, it does not destroy my capital base. The more conviction around the prediction, the more leverage I employ on each leg to juice up my return on equity.

The Volatility Blues


The anguish experienced by traders worldwide during the $20,000 to $6,000 slide further proves that recently experienced losses matter more than gains. The financial media and many traders forget that 18 months ago the price was $1,000 and then in the fall of 2015 the price was $200.

Jonny-come-lately traders / investors were eviscerated by the recent moves. To make matters worse, the volatility collapsed alongside the price. For crypto, this is deadlier than white wine and painkillers.

But what about adoption? One of the major facets of Bitcoin preventing further adoption is its high volatility. In a pure Bitcoin economy, how can people trade Bitcoin against real goods if its value violently fluctuates? The underwater trader laments that the market just doesn’t get the “fundamental” value of this new transaction network. Well, what transaction network’s monetary token do you know increased 20x in value in under one year? None. Therefore, the driving force is not about current utility but intense speculation on future utility.

Changing the way in which humans use money is an extremely long and difficult process. This process by its nature must be chaotic. Money and the means by which it is handled is personal and sometimes religious. If you tell a society that tomorrow things will be done differently than how they were done over the past 200 years, there will be an intense reticence to change. A violent upheaval is necessary. Therefore, if Bitcoin is to be used in any productive manner, the period leading up to this new epoch must be extremely volatile.

Bitcoin is a call option on a new monetary system. The most important option pricing input is the underlying asset’s implied volatility. As the above chart illustrates, the realised 30-day annualised volatility crashed alongside the price. When volatility returns, the price will go higher.

We Have Been Here Before

The nuclear bear market of 2015 started in January when the price broke $300. For the next 10 months, the price traded between $200 and $300. While that is a 50% range, the daily movements were very slight.

Without volatility, many traders, investors, and market commentators wrote off Bitcoin. Why should one care about an asset that has crashed over 80% from its recent all-time high, and has barely moved since?

Traders returned to the market because the volatility re-emerged. If Bitcoin can gyrate 100% in annualised volatility terms in a 30-day period, then quick gains can be made. The FOMO “investors” who believe they can change their lot in life with little effort and in little time took us from $200 to $20,000. There were not many things that fundamentally changed about the adoption of Bitcoin in real commerce from 2015 to 2017.

Return to $20,000

The path to parity will not begin in earnest until volatility rises materially. People need to be excited again. 10% pump & dumps in one day will bring back the good times. The real questions are what catalyst will start the party again, and how long will it take.

During the 2017 bull market, the effect of global macro events on Bitcoin was forgotten. For 2H2018, a global macro event will have to prove that Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset. In 2015 Greece almost told Frau Merkel to do one, but chickened out at the crossroads. Bitcoin responded positively when the market believed Greece could actually liberate itself. If a similar type scare happened later this year, would Bitcoin regain its safe haven status?

With the Fed, ECB, and BOJ effectively flatlining or outright reducing their balance sheets, cracks in the financial markets will show later this year. Money printing has never led to prosperity in the long run, and when you shut off the tap the ghosts and ghouls of the financial markets will play.

The MSM Still Loves Bitcoin

Thankfully the mainstream financial press loves talking about crypto. The personalities of the leading figures are larger than life. Even at Bitcoin $6,000 and Ether $400 a whole cadre of individuals are generationally wealthy, and are making interesting life choices the media can’t stop covering. In 2015 no one was watching, in 2018 everyone is.

In order to prove their prescience, MSM outlets will fall over themselves attempting to call the bottom in Bitcoin.  The foolish many who believe these pundits actually can divine the future will attempt to knife catch. Many will fail, but if enough try, some will succeed. These successful retail punters will be paraded on the airwaves as trading gods. This will further increase the FOMO, volatility, and price appreciation.

Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. I still haven’t seen enough pain and anguish to believe we are done bloodletting. In true Bitcoin fashion, the price will go to the level no one thinks is possible and rebound faster than traders can work up the nerve to BTFD.

TRON 定期合约

更新于北京时间 6 月 26 日 17:30:由于目前的币安系统处于停机状态,BitMEX TRXU18 的上架将被推迟。 我们会在上架前发布另一个更新。

更新于北京时间 6 月 26 日 20:50 :币安已经重新上线。 由于现在已经很晚了,上架时间已顺延至北京时间 6 月 27 日 16:30。

基于广泛的需求,我们已经在北京时间 2018 年 6 月 27 日 16:30 上架 BitMEX 波场币 / 比特币 2018 年 9 月 28 日定期合约 TRXU18。

 

 

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等待戈多

“什么都没发生。没有人来,没有人去。这太可怕了。”

– 塞缪尔·贝克特,等待戈多

 

加密社区自创立以来一直在等待各种各样的戈多。对于交易员来说,我们的戈多是神话般的机构投资者。当他们涉足越来越大的时候,我们的行李箱会变成兰博基尼,我们会从此过上幸福的生活。当他们参与其中时,流动性会神奇地改善,市场将 “按照预期的走势”。

包括我自己在内的许多加密评论员认为 2018 年是机构投资者大举进入市场的一年。这笔大量的新资金将有助于支持比特币价格高于 10,000 美元; 并在短时间内带我们去美丽的圣域 – 瓦尔哈拉。

随着北半球夏季临近,机构投资者是否真的开始涌入这个新领域?抛开高盛和摩根大通设立加密交易平台的消息,可以最好判断市场对加密投资兴趣的又是什么?

CME 和 CBOE 的比特币期货合约交易量是最好的判断方法。这两份合约都是用美元作为保证金和结算货币。任何交易这些合约的人均可承受比特币价格收益及风险,又不需要持有比特币,而在 BitMEX ,我们的合约及保证金都是用比特币结算。这意味着您必须拥有比特币才能交易。大多数机构投资者都喜欢比特币这个市场,但又很害怕实际购买,持有和交易比特币。

 

数据

上面的图表显示了 CME , CBOE 和 BitMEX 比特币/美元年初至今的美元交易量。

可以观察到的第一重点是 BitMEX 仍占据主导地位。 BitMEX 的散户客户群的交易量是 CME 和 CBOE 的机构客户群的数倍。大部分 BitMEX 散户投资者会发现很难在和 CME 及 CBOE 有合作的经纪商那儿开设账户。这些经纪商要求相对较高的账户最低限额。 CME 和 CBOE 所提供的合约具有较低的杠杆率和较高交易门槛,即使一般 BitMEX 的客户在 CMB 和 CBOE 有交易权限,也未必能达到这些合约的交易门槛。

从这些数据中可以清楚地看到,散户投资者仍然支配着这些流量。有趣的是,如果您在 Telegram , 微信 , Reddit 等地方呆了足够长的时间,您会听到交易员谈论由衍生品市场的特定行为引发的现货价格变动。周五 OKEx 合约结算可能会导致砸盘。交易行为也受到 BitMEX 比特币/美元掉期即将发生的大额资金支付所影响。但您很少会听到,市场会因为 CME 或 CBOE 合约即将到期而被影响。

 

明天又是新的一天

CME 和 CBOE 的交易量都表明机构投资者参与市场的积极性有限。 1 月– 5 月同期相比的年复合增长率为 3.94% 。但是,这将会改变。随着银行在接下来的 6 至 12 个月内交易行为加剧,他们将开始为他们的客户进行加密市场的洗礼。如果一家银行公开宣布创建交易团队,他们将承担某程度的声誉风险,他们也将尽其所能的创造相关业务来证明其承担的风险合理性。其中最容易交易的产品便是不需要实际接触标的资产的金融产品。

使得新成立的交易团队先拔头筹的最简单方式是为 CME 和 CBOE 挂牌的期货提供风险定价。客户想要立即进行大笔金额的交易;卖方服务可以进行双向报价并在交易日当天清除其仓位风险。客户可以即时获得流动性,并且银行可以针对有实际交易的流量设定合理的买卖差价。

随着交易量和持仓量增长,美元结算和比特币结算衍生品市场之间的相互作用将导致市场获利扭曲。在此发生之前,有兴趣的投资者应该阅读 BitMEX 和 CME 期货指南。 BitMEX 产品的非线性使事情更复杂了,但最终意味着两个宇宙之间将出现有利可图的套利和差价交易。

 

 

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新的 EOS 定期合约

在过去的一个月中,我们对 BitMEX 交易引擎进行了显著的性能改进,提高了平台的整体容量并减少了系统超负荷响应。 我们将很快发布 BitMEX 的成长系列的第二部分,在里面将详细说明我们最近所做的改进以及我们目前的工作。 点击这里阅读第一部分。

由于容量的提高和广泛的需求,我们已经在北京时间 2018 年 6 月 7 日下午 3 点挂牌了 BitMEX EOS 代币/比特币定期合约 EOSM18,到期日为 2018 年 6 月 29 日。

 

 

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Waiting for Godot


“Nothing happens. Nobody comes, nobody goes. It’s awful.” 
― Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot

The crypto community has been waiting for a variety of Godots since its inception. For traders, our Godot is the mythical Institutional Investor. When they get involved in a big way, our bags will transform into Lambos, and we will live happily ever after. When they get involved, liquidity will magically improve and the market will “behave” as it is supposed to.

Many crypto commentators including myself, proclaimed 2018 as the year institutional investors get involved in a big way. This flood of new money would help support a Bitcoin price above $10,000; and take us to Valhalla in short order.

With northern hemispheric summer approaching, are institutional investors actually flocking to our new space? News of a Goldman and JP Morgan crypto trading desk aside, what is the best proxy for insto interest in crypto?

The CME and CBOE Bitcoin futures contracts trading volumes are the best proxy. Both of these contracts are USD margined and settled. Anyone who trades these contracts obtains Bitcoin price exposure without ever touching Bitcoin. At BitMEX, our contracts are margined and settled in Bitcoin. That means to trade, you must own Bitcoin. Most instos love the idea of Bitcoin, but are terrified of actually buying, storing, and transferring it.

The Numbers



The above graphs show the USD trading volumes of the CME, CBOE, and BitMEX Bitcoin / USD contracts YTD.

The first takeaway is that BitMEX dominates. BitMEX’s retail client base, trades multiples of the insto client base of the CME and CBOE. BitMEX retail traders for the most part would find it very difficult to open an account with a broker that offers connectivity to the CME and CBOE. These brokers will require relatively high account minimums. The lower leverage offered and higher contract notionals at the CME and CBOE mean that even if a typical BitMEX client had connectivity, they would not be able to afford to trade even one contract.

It is clear from this data that retail traders still dominate the flows. Anecdotally, if you hang out long enough in Telegram, WeChat, Reddit etc. you will hear traders talk about spot movements triggered by quirks of a particular derivatives market. Friday settlement for OKex quarts on many occasions has completely whipsawed the market. Trading behaviour is also affected by an upcoming large funding payment on the BitMEX XBTUSD swap. What there is scant mention of, are market changes in response to the CME or CBOE expiry.

Tomorrow Is Another Day

The CME and CBOE volumes point to tepid involvement by instos. The Jan to May MoM CAGR is 3.94%. However, that will change. As banks gin up their trading activities over the next 6 to 12 months, they will begin hand-holding their clients in their crypto baptism. If a bank is going to take the reputational risk by publicly announcing the creation of a trading desk, they will do whatever they can to generate business to justify the risk. The easiest product to trade is the one that doesn’t require anyone to actually touch the underlying asset.

An easy win for a newly minted trading desk is to provide risk pricing on CME and CBOE listed futures. A client wants to trade a chunky block immediately; the sell-side desk will quote a two-way and clear their risk on-exchange over the trading day. The client gets instant liquidity in excess of the screen, and the bank can take healthy bid-ask margins on meaningful flow.

As volumes and open interest grows, the interplay between the USD settled and Bitcoin settled derivatives markets will lead to profitable distortions in the market. Before that happens, interested traders should read the BitMEX vs. CME Futures Guide. The non-linear components of the BitMEX products complicates things, but ultimately means there will be profitable arbitrage and spread trades between the two universes.

Money Launderers Use Property, not Bitcoin

​For some, crypto-coins have a bad reputation: “it facilitates money laundering” is a common belief. Enlightened Hodlers retort that Bitcoin is a terrible way to launder money: it has a public ledger and relative illiquidity vs. the USD. While USD is the preferred method of account, which USD assets do money launderers favour? Pro-Tip: It ain’t Bitcoin.

In these modern times, washing $1 million of crisp cocaine-tainted Benjamins is no easy feat. If you walk up to a teller and attempt to deposit into a bank, they most likely will turn you away or call the police. You could call Saul in New York’s diamond district and attempt to wash it through precious stones; but, fencing those diamonds at close to par will prove difficult.

Governments always want more money parked in their jurisdictions. However, sometimes they have to play the coy mistress and profess their desire to stop terrorist financing (except for the Saudis). Below I will show that the property market is the preferred washing machine for the world’s unclean cash.

I will take a look at the real estate purchase and holding disclosures in Hong Kong, where China launders its money, and the United States where the world launders its money. I will look at both through the lens of the Common Reporting Standard (CRS). We will step into the shoes of our average USD millionaire Zhou from China. How would he clean his cash, and keep the eye Xi from knowing where his loot is?

Chinese people are under no illusion about the rapacious nature of their government. While many have benefited handsomely over the past 30 years, one wrong political misstep could send them back to the countryside penniless. The complete lack of financial freedom means that Beijing, if it wants to, can completely bankrupt you on a whim with no due process.

America, the home of the free, decided that it needed to know where all the financial assets of its tax donkeys globally reside. They required any financial institution to report on the assets of any American. China and many other countries also thought this was a great idea. Hence, the Common Reporting Standard was born. The CRS allows member countries to share financial data between themselves. Under the CRS, China can call up Hong Kong and request information on any Chinese national.

There were two very interesting developments in the history of the CRS:

  1. America failed to ratify the CRS. Which means, for example, that America is not obliged to share financial data on Chinese people with assets in America with China. Things that make you go ‘Hmmmm…’ for $200, Alex – America wants all countries to follow FACTA and inform on Americans, but it won’t return the favour. I wonder where all those assets held by non-Americans will end up?
  2. Hong Kong exempted property from the assets deemed reportable.

As this SCMP article notes, Chinese people rushed to convert bank deposits into property. Property is one of the best generators of economic activity. Many jobs are created on the back of a property boom. From a policy perspective, anything a government can do to encourage an increase in the property stock will make it look like it knows how to run a successful economy.

That’s the date the country falls in line with the Common Reporting Standards, or CRS – a Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA)-type regime developed in response to a G20 request, aimed at combating cross-border tax evasion and protecting the integrity of the international tax system. The Chinese government pledged to join in with CRS in 2014.
Details on financial assets held by foreign individuals within mainland China will also start being collected.
The agreement means information will be exchanged with tax authorities in 100 countries and regions from next year, including Hong Kong.
The city has been considered a tax haven for many mainland investors, as there is no capital gains tax levied here. But now they are being forced to convert those financial investments into property, prior to the July deadline to avoid declaring any financial assets held abroad, to the Chinese authorities.

When it comes to the US, the National Association of Realtors is hell-bent on property purchases being exempt from KYC / AML regulations. FinCEN recognised that property became a blatant cash washing machine in certain hot markets, and imposed some disclosure requirements in August 2017.

Set to expire on February 23, 2017, FinCEN discovered that a significant portion of the reported covered transactions in the latest GTOs were linked to possible criminal activity by the individuals revealed to be the beneficial owners of the shell company purchasers. As a result, FinCEN is extending the current GTOs for an additional 180 days, until August 22, 2017, and may consider permanent data collection requirements later this year for more cities.

The GTOs require certain title companies to identify natural persons with a 25 percent or greater ownership interest in a legal entity purchasing residential real property without a bank loan or similar external financing in the following geographic areas meeting specific transaction thresholds:

  • $500k and above – Bexar County, Texas
  • $1m and above – Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties, Florida
  • $1.5m and above – New York City Boroughs of Brooklyn, Queens, Bronx, and Staten Island
  • $2m and above – San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara Counties, California
  • $3m and above – New York City Borough of Manhattan

This is a step in the right direction to fight those evil money launders at the very high end of the market, but for your average Zhou with a few million big ones to stash, it is still business as usual.

America remains the favoured place to stash cash away from Beijing’s prying eyes, or, indeed, those of any other government bent on stemming capital flight. As long as someone stays below those investment limits, he or she can expect to have little difficulty obtaining a clean bank account and making a property purchase with cash.

Let’s Try With Bitcoin

It is clearly easy to wash and hide a few million USD in the liquid property markets of Hong Kong and America. What about using the favourite monetary boogeyman, Bitcoin?

Assume you want to move $1 million in cash into Bitcoin.

There are two options: either you can open an account on an exchange, or trade over-the-counter (OTC) with a dealer.

Any exchange that can handle this sort of volume has a serious banking relationship. Their bank will require extensive KYC / AML checks on all accounts. If the purpose is to hide the flow of funds, this is suboptimal. Presented with a subpoena, the exchange will be obligated to present the customer details.

If you can’t use an exchange, perhaps an OTC dealer would trade with you. Unfortunately the large dealers also must follow KYC / AML regulations. They again have banking relationships to maintain.

The major liquidity sources are exchanges and compliant OTC dealers. There are dealers who will onboard a client without KYC checks; however, their spread vs. the market will be extremely aggressive. A 20%+ vig to clean your money, assuming they can handle your size, is to be expected.

Washing money through the crypto capital markets is very difficult if you are unwilling to provide KYC information. Property is much easier, and vested interests from the government to the real estate brokers want you involved. They will do all they can to alleviate KYC / AML reporting requirements. Satoshi ain’t the biggest illegal finance enabler: no, it’s Uncle Sam.

为什么推出 UPs?

BitMEX 很高兴推出了第一个期权性产品:上涨和下跌收益合约。这标志着 BitMEX 产品发展史上的一个非常重要的里程碑。有了定期合约,永续和现在的期权产品, BitMEX 正朝着为加密市场提供全方位衍生品的目标迈进。

 

为什么推出上涨或下跌收益合约?

UPs (上涨) 和 DOWNs (下跌收益合约) 类似于看涨期权和看跌期权。 BitMEX 最大的优势之一就是与社区紧密合作并时时倾听客户的意见,而且由于该行业的成熟度不断提高,我们听到了对这类产品的强大需求。

 

为什么选这个时机推出?

比特币衍生品交易市场的流动性在过去 12 个月内发生了巨大变化。 BitMEX XBTUSD 永续合约现在是整个加密市场交易量最大的产品。日均交易量在数十亿美元以上。

在期权等非线性产品推行之前,线性产品(永续掉期和定期合约)必须具有足够的流动性。鉴于 XBTUSD 和比特币/美元季度定期合约的流动性状况,我们认为现在的流动性足够推出一个成功的期权产品。

 

在什么情况下可以使用?

想象一下,比特币目前交易价格为 10,000 美元,您相信在本周末前,比特币将上涨 10% 至 11,000 美元。但是,在达到目标价前,您不希望承受任何价格风险。此外,无论一周内的价格如何波动,您也不希望您的仓位在达到目标价之前被平仓。例如,如果价格下降到 5,000 美元,但在结算日从回 12,000 美元,您仍然可以获利并且不会被清算。

因此,您希望能通过产品来满足您 11,000 美元以上的看涨目标。上涨收益合约可以满足您的需求,然而世上没有免费午餐,你需要付出权利金给卖方作为这种 “期权” 的成本。

 

为什么您只能买?

由于潜在的无限损失的特征,裸空(即不做对冲)期权是最快且最容易造成财务破产的方式之一。在 BitMEX 平台上,交易员能够损失的最大值仅限于他们在平台上存入的保证金,因此如果期权卖家无法赔偿潜在损失,那么分摊制度就需要被启动并让所有其他参与方来承担,而这正正是我们希望避免的。因此,我们要求卖家存入上涨或下跌收益合约的全部名义价值相应的保证金。

由于平台不会向卖方提供任何的杠杆,因此从资本的角度来看,做市商的成本非常昂贵。为了保证在价差小的情况下有足够大的市场,在一开始, BitMEX 的联盟锚定做市商将成为该市场初期唯一允许出售期权的公司。

 

许多人可能因为市场的唯一卖方是 BitMEX 的联盟公司而担心,但有以下几点需要考虑:

  1. 如下面进一步讨论的那样,引擎超负荷问题的其中一个原因是我们有太多做市商不断更新当前产品的报价。这占用了大量有限的引擎容量。在我们的引擎性能未升级之前,我们不会推出任何会使该问题加剧的新产品。(例如,我们将一些山寨币季度定期合约下架的原因之一,便是因为它们的交易量与其占用的引擎资源的比例不合理。)因此,如果只有一个做市商对上涨或下跌收益合约进行报价,那么便不会占用引擎太多资源。
  2. 上涨或下跌收益合约需要存入充分保证金。也就是说,买方必须全额支付权利金,卖方必须将全部名义金额存入保证金。这意味着无论在哪个价格结算,买家和卖家都不会中途被强平。如果合约在价内到期,买家可以放心,他们一定会收到收益。此外,这意味着做市商无法以任何方式操纵上涨或下跌收益合约市场来强平任何的客户。
  3. 做市商的任务是维持一个小价差的市场,以便买家可以在整个合约期间在理想的价格开仓和平仓。我们希望增加流动性,拥有买卖价出现不正常的大差距的市场或空的委托类表不符合 BitMEX 的整体利益的。
  4. 我们会根据客户对产品的反馈,对上涨或下跌收益合约进行相应更改。做市商将能够比其他第三方更快地适应新的产品结构。这意味着我们可以快速试错,并在保证市场流动性的情况下快速重新推出产品。

 

我们对引擎效能提升做了什么?

对 BitMEX 来说,我们的首要任务是改善我们引擎的性能。在详细的博客文章 BitMEX 技术扩张:第一部分中,我们的首席技术官塞缪尔·里德( Samuel Reed )详细解释了我们面临的问题以及我们将如何解决这些问题。不过,我将在这里重申一些观点。

该解决方案不像增加伺服器或聘请更多工程师那么简单。该引擎的最大效能受到每个委托,仓位,交易或价格变化操作的风险检查和计算的限制,这令我们可以在允许 100 倍杠杆的前提下使得平台上保持数学平衡及一致。对这个 BitMEX 遇到的独特问题我们可以用一个双管齐下的策略来解决:

  1. 通过尽可能多优化现有功能来获得效率提升,我们每周都在进行优化;然而,虽然引擎性能不断改进,随着需求的增加,新增的效能消耗非常快。
  2. 针对引擎进行重新设计,使得上述问题可以通过提供更多产品及容纳更多用户来解决,从而避免引擎过载问题。这项工作正在进行中,它无法在一夜之间得到解决,但我们正在努力实现这一目标。

我想强调的是,我们在未充份加强引擎效能前不会推出任何可能进一步降低引擎容量的产品。

另外,我们正在仔细研究哪些 API 用户消耗着我们的资源。我们将针对报价/交易比率并不理想的交易员推出 API 限制。我仍记得当初作为首席执行官去说服交易员在我们的平台上提供更多的流动性是多么的艰难。这一过程给我带来了阴影,并加强了我对这个问题的关注,我希望所有有意愿在 BitMEX 上提供流动性的交易员都可以做到。

推出上涨或下跌收益合约并不意味着 BitMEX 忘了或忽略了引擎过载的问题。相反,我们必须在合理的范围内继续推出和测试新产品,以便在一年之内我们有另一个像 XBTUSD 一样非常成功的产品。

如果您是一位有能力的工程师,并且相信自己能够解决这个问题,我们希望接触/雇用您。请通过职页面电子邮件与我们联系,高级职员将审查您的资格或建议。

 


– 首席执行官兼联合创始人亚瑟·海耶斯( Arthur Hayes )

 

 

 

 

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BitMEX 做市商团队

我们最近更新了服务条款,明确阐明了 BitMEX 交易平台与参与做市的联盟公司之间的关系。

 

服务条款更新

除平台业务外,BitMEX 有一个具盈利目的的交易业务,负责买卖在 BitMEX 平台上交易的产品。 该交易业务主要是作为做市商进行交易。 在安排上,该交易业务与平台业务是分开的和独立的。 具体而言,没有前台办公室人员被重叠安排在该交易业务和平台业务里,该交易业务是在一个单独的物理位置里进行操作,并且该交易业务无法访问任何平台的委托流、成交、客户或其它在条款里不对其他平台用户开放的信息。 另外,除非特定 BitMEX 产品的条款另有规定,否则该交易业务只能以与任何其他用户相同的条款获得访问和交易权限。

 

为何要做市?

很早我们就发现做市商非常现实。他们只愿意投放时间在已经有流量的交易平台上。他们不愿意尝试一个新的交易所,因为这意味着他们必须花费资源连接一个没有潜在提取流动性者的平台。鉴于做市商交易时也必须抵押资金,这将减少他们的回报。

为了吸引他人提供流动性,我们资助了一家公司,只要平台挂牌新产品,他们就会报价。随着产品变得更加流动,该公司将缩减报价的量并专注于 BitMEX 平台上其他流动性较低的产品。

目前,这家联盟公司的交易集中在山寨币的合约上。 XBTUSD 和比特币/美元季度定期合约具有充足的流动性,新的做市商每天都会涌入委托列表。阶段性任务完成。

能够立即支持一种新的非流动性产品,使我们能够为其他平台没有提供的产品做实验,这是都是在没有锚定做市商的情况下无法做到的。它还加快了获得第三方流动性提供者的过程。

 

我们如何使得利益一致?

交易业务是以营利为目的。但是,他们的收入是以平台的服务费来计算,即从 BitMEX 的平台业务而来。在交易收益方面,做市商的目标是保持盈亏平衡。

如果该公司的交易收益太可观,业务方面将指示他们收紧价差并增加规模。作为一个特许经营商, BitMEX 的成功是透过做大交易量,而不是在于做市商交易业务的盈利。

交易平台赚得越多,做市商便赚得越多。这也意味着做市商团队的不诚实和操纵行为是不可容忍的。如您所见,做市商坐落在一个独立的办公位置。他们也不能得到任何比其他 BitMEX 平台上的交易员更好的信息或访问权限。如果交易员认为该平台不公平,他们将离开这个平台,这对任何人都没有好处。

我们的首席外聘律师在了解我们运营情况后向我们提供了关于最高行为操守的建议,以确保我们将 BitMEX 客户的利益放在首位。

 

做市商团队的业务包括什么?

主要的交易是为选定的 BitMEX 产品提供买卖双向的流动性。该团队目前的重点是增加山寨币合约的流动性。该团队也将成为上涨或下跌收益合约的锚定做市商。

该团队也将与全球各种交易对手进行场外交易。

如上所述,该团队不参与市场操纵行为。该团队不会进行抢先交易。该团队不会为了狙击止损或引起连环保证金追缴而操纵 BitMEX 市场或其标的交易平台。

过去没有发生过这种行为,如果发现此类行为,该团队将立即被终止运作。

 

做市商团队的负责人是谁?

该团队的首席交易员是尼克·安德里亚诺夫( Nick Andrianov )。他是前德意志银行股票流和奇异期权交易员。尼克和我已经认识了十多年。他的诚信是不容置疑的。

尼克从 BitMEX 的高管那里接到任务。然后业务部门和市场部门的工作人员密切配合完成该任务 – 尽量让每一个 BitMEX 产品的流动性更好。

 

财务风险

做市商的交易亏损不会影响到 BitMEX 交易平台的偿付能力

如上所述,做市商团队是一个独立机构。他们的目标是为 BitMEX 以及其他加密资金市场提供流动性。

 

– 首席执行官兼联合创始人亚瑟·海耶斯( Arthur Hayes )

 

 

 

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