Crypto Trader Digest – Dec 8

How Will You Spend Your Helicopter Money?

How will you spend your helicopter money

Finnish lawmakers are ready for the nuclear option. A bill under consideration will hand out $900 to every citizen each month. In their desperate attempt to kick start economic activity, Finland will be the first developed nation to drop money from helicopters.

The theory is that each citizen will go out and spend their newfound wealth on goods which will spur inflation and economic activity. The poorer members of society will use this money on necessities, food and shelter. The economy will not magically produce more of these goods. Prices will rise and these members of society will be no better fed or housed than before. Only now they will clamor for additional free money to make up for the loss of purchasing power.

The wealthier members of society will watch the value of their savings decline. They will be searching for assets that can preserve their wealth. Real estate, gold, art, jewelry these are the conventional means of wealth preservation. Once these assets reach ridiculous prices, unconventional assets become attractive. Bitcoin tops my list as an asset that will gain favor amongst the wealthier members of society.

Lawmakers globally will watch and learn from Finland’s experiment with helicopter money. Citizens around the globe will demand that instead of handing free money to banksters, government’s hand cash directly to those most in need. Start hoarding now because as the helicopter money movement spreads, prices of conventional and unconventional means of wealth preservation will skyrocket.

It Begins: Desperate Finland Set To Unleash Helicopter Money Drop To All Citizens

The China Bitcoin Premium Is On The Rise

The China Bitcoin Premium Is On The Rise

The most important indicator for Bitcoin is flashing green once again. Over the past two weeks, as the CNY weakened, the China Bitcoin premium rose. The premium is now approaching 5% as USDCNY flirts with 6.40. All hell will break lose if the Fed raises rates as expected. EM currencies globally have been getting the stick all year as the dollar surged higher. EM countries will descend further down the mercantilist path as they try to defend what market share they have left of world trade.

China will not sit idly by and watch their competitiveness erode vs. Europe, Japan, and South Korea. Unlike most safe haven assets such as Gold that are priced in dollars, Bitcoin is priced in CNY. The PBOC will gradually allow the market forces to take the CNY lower. Up until now, they have gently guided the CNY lower by intervening in the spot markets on a daily basis to stem the selling pressure.

Apart from China, citizens of other emerging markets whose currencies are rapidly depreciating will be scrambling to purchase assets to preserve what wealth they still retain. Argentina and Brazil are two markets where Bitcoin trading volumes will increase rapidly. Argentina’s central bank is out of USD and is set for yet another default. Brazil is experiencing a political crisis, an impeachment trial of the president is set to begin. Concurrently, Brazil’s economy is collapsing due to falling world trade and commodity prices.

For the reasons mentioned above, A Fed rate hike on December 16th is positive for Bitcoin. I still have doubts whether the Fed will follow through on their promise to normalise rates. The calls for a continuation of the 0% status quo are growing. Yellen might still get cold feet in the face of the growing dissent from the likes of the IMF, World Bank, and Bank of International Settlements. Pay close attention to any public comments from Fed governors. If they indeed back down from a rate hike, they will attempt to telegraph their intentions to the markets in the days ahead.

It’s Raining Coin

It's Raining Coin

Goldman Sachs recently filed a patent for SETL coin. This crypto currency is meant to handle settlements of financial assets. Get ready for a slew of patent filings for various coins from major multinational banks. By now, most banks have an internal team working on various ways blockchain technology can help their business.

The banks certainly will not build tools and innovations on top of the Bitcoin protocol. Open source and decentralisation don’t jive with centralised rent seeking banks. They will each release their own coin aimed at performing similar functions. The battle of bank coins has begun.

Ultimately the regulators will choose the winner. After the GFC and the public outcry against the financial services industry, regulators will be loath to introduce radical changes to the financial system that might fail. As such, the various bank coins will be great PR exercises, but I highly doubt any real changes will be made any time soon.

Capturing The Liquidity Premium

POKEMON TX DATE : 29 MARCH © SKY ONE
POKEMON
TX DATE : 29 MARCH
© SKY ONE

The daily 100x Bitcoin future, XBT24H, is BitMEX’s most liquid product. The next most liquid product is the weekly 50x Bitcoin future, XBT7D. XBT24H exhibits a liquidity premium. The positive USD gamma associated with being long a quanto contract means that XBT24H usually trades at a higher annualised basis than XBT7D. Traders who wish to capture this liquidity premium while remaining price neutral should sell XBT24H and buy XBT7D.

Trade Mechanics:

XBT24H usually trades at the highest premium during the first 6 hours of trading. XBT7D re-lists each Friday at 12:00 GMT. From 12:00 GMT to 18:00 GMT buy XBT7D and sell XBT24H in equal quantities. Each day when XBT24H expires, re-sell the same number of XBT24H contracts plus an additional amount to hedge the profit made. Each day you will earn the premium of XBT24H over spot. XBT7D also trades at a premium, and each day you will lose money as XBT7D decays to the spot price.

The compounded return from selling XBT24H each day will be higher than the loss from XBT7D after 7 days. Using data from November 27th to December 4th, I calculated the net return from selling XBT24H each day over the first six hours, vs. the loss experienced by buying XBT7D on November 27th and holding until the December 4th expiry. The compounded return earned by selling XBT24H was 3.74%. The XBT7D loss was 1.74%, for a net return of 2%. Depending on the amount of leverage used, the return on equity will be much higher. Using 10x leverage on both legs equals a 10% return on equity per week. Annualised that’s 520% without taking any price risk.

Daily Return XBT24H
Fri 0.86%
Sat 0.20%
Sun 1.08%
Mon 1.11%
Tue -0.02%
Wed 0.35%
Thur 0.11%

For those who prefer not the trade directionally, this is a safer risk adjusted strategy that generates positive returns.

XBT Spot

XBT Spot

$400 was breached momentarily this weekend. Bitcoin on the USD exchanges is now range bound between $390 and $400, and on the CNY exchanges Bitcoin trades slightly above $400.

The price will climb alongside the China premium. FOMO buying has not occurred yet. The slow and steady rally is healthy. Against a positive global macro backdrop, Bitcoin will continue climbing to the all important $500.

Trade Recommendations:

BitMEX 100x Daily Futures, XBT24H: Buy XBT24H while spot is $390 to $395, with an $405 upside target.

BitMEX 50x Daily Futures, XBT7D: Buy XBT7D while spot si $390 to $400, with an $410 upside target.

Risk Disclaimer

BitMEX is not a licensed financial advisor. The information presented in this newsletter is an opinion, and is not purported to be fact. Bitcoin is a volatile instrument and can move quickly in any direction. BitMEX is not responsible for any trading loss incurred by following this advice.

币界新闻择要 – 十一月三十日

欢迎来到 BlockMEX

 

Lego-The-Simpsons-episode-9

Arthur(BitMEX 创办人): Garry (创投资本人),很高兴认识你啊,我想象告诉你一个新的概念。 BitMEX现在是BlockMEX,我们会提供块链上的金融合约交易。

Garry: 这个念头不错啊。你知道我们对比特币不算太认识,但是对于块链技术抱着正面的态度,要不详细解析一下BlockMEX是什么呢?

Arthur: 客户使用Blockshares在BlockMEX上交易,而我们提供技术让客户能够块链上交易不同种类的衍生工具。

Garry: 这概念不错,不过这你的交易平台就不再用比特币了?你们之前不是叫BitMEX吗?

Arthur: 我们从来都不是一家比特币公司,BitMEX的”Bit”只是代表电子资讯,就是位元组那个意思的 “Bit”

Garry: 嗯… 那么你们在什么块链上交易呢?你们会用到比特币吗?

Arthur: 用到比特币… 才不要呢!我们自己会建立一条BlockMEX专属块链来交易Blockshares,

Garry: 噢,自己建立一条块链,这念头不错呢!那如果任何人能在BlockMEX块链上交易任何东西,那么监管是怎么办呢?

Arthur: 监管跟块链技术是两码子的事,因为BlockMEX是去中心化的,传统的监管不能对BlockMEX应用

Garry: 一如我所料,块链技术真的是多样化啊,那么交易量怎么?

Arthur: 我们还没有在BlockMEX完成一项交易,但是说到底这还在概念阶段,我们这科技是能应用在大型交易机构,我们会对衍生品交易市场产生颠覆性的改变

Garry: 我同意传统金融业需要这概念来改革一下。那么你的团队怎么样呢?现在越来越难找收悉块链技术的程序员啊!

Arthur: 我们的团队包括了来自日本的MYSQL和PHP尖子,他们自从2010年已经开始接触块链技术

Garry: 你们的确是蛮象样啊,我们 FOMO资本(FOMO意思就是 害怕没有跟上车的意思) 怎么能够参与你们呢?

Arthur: 我们现在正在筹集1.16亿的资金,而我们估值大概是5亿。

Garry: 这蛮合理的,我们FOMO资本一般来说会投资大概半亿到一亿,我们对你们现在的集资有兴趣

中国交易所: 比特币的影子银行

the_shadow

究竟中国各大交易所如何在免佣交易下赚钱呢?每次三大龙头交易所(OKC,火币,BTCC)的老板被问到这个问题他们都会说他们真的在赚钱。在这篇文章我会用一个假想的数据模拟方法来说说我怎么能从一家不收费的交易所中赚钱。先此声明,本人对我自己的推论以外并没有任何证据证明我的其他观点。

人民币交易量是在比特币界中占比最大的,所以交易所必须拥有大额的客户资金(包括人民币及比特币),我认为部分交易所成为了影子银行,免息“借入”客户的资金,然后拿资金来购入债卷。

当一件产品是免费的,你就是产品了。中国比特币交易所使用手上的资金来交易并赚取收入。先看看运行一家交易所的成本。我没有实质数据,不过三大交易所大概有150个工作人员,假设月薪一万,存款的利润大概3-5%并能够随时流动来应付提现,这是最低风险的投资。他们的薪金支出大概是2千万,在5%利率之下赚取这个金额需要3.6亿的资金。根据交易量推断这个数值的资金是蛮合理的数值。

但是使用这些资金来买债卷只能住心,如果交易所要盈利,他们必须冒险。私有机构不能从银行获取信用额,所有银行的信用都是预留给国营企业,在上10年,高回报的的资产管理组合开始为中小企提供信用,这些产品的盈利大概是10-20%,而成熟期各有不同。同时普遍认为这些资产管理组合备受平民追捧,政府会在需要的时候为其补底避免市民因而蒙受大额亏损,所以可见有一些原本需要违约的高回报资产管理组合都被银行处理掉了。

就如银行,中国的比特币交易所必须保留部分流动资金,并不能把资金都投资在不同的资产组合上,下面列表假设活期存款利率是5%,资产管理组合的利率是20%,NIM是Net Interest Margin(净息差),而在这情况下就是利息的全部因为客户资金都是0利率提供的.

% 流动 % 资产管理组合 年净息差 支出 收益
50% 50% $7,031,250 $2,812,500 $4,218,750
40% 60% $7,875,000 $2,812,500 $5,062,500
30% 70% $8,718,750 $2,812,500 $5,906,250
20% 80% $9,562,500 $2,812,500 $6,750,000
10% 90% $10,406,250 $2,812,500 $7,593,750

如上表所示,更高风险的投资组合(在成熟期/信贷风险角度而言)他们就能赚到更多。由于没有监管,如何交易所持有的客户资金,他们可以随意拿来投资他们喜欢的东西来赚取利息差。不难想象交易所老板的正职是拿客户资金来炒A股的大额。

比特币交易已经成为一种余兴节目,而这些企业家创造了非常有利可图的银行机构。因为他们有多余的现金,他们能把客户的资金放到不同的地方来赚利息差。中国的比特币交易所模式会是在高信贷风险地方所取得模式,因为当地的利息差距可以很高。要是我在印度开一家交易所,这就是最好的盈利模式了,因为私人信贷在印度是十分罕有,而且利率是十分高的。

6.4 就是人民币的神奇数字

image (3)

国际货币基金组织(IMF)将在今天宣布人民币的纳入SDR篮子。分析师预计,纳入后,央行将干预较少的外汇市场,并允许人民币进一步贬值。 6.4是美元兑人民币自上季度以来的高位了。

如果美元兑人民币高于6.4,市场就开始出现结构性失衡。未来的弱点预期将变得更加尖锐。市民将会使用各种手段来维持他们的购买力,而比特币则继续在保值产品成为新宠儿。 Zerohedge每次谈到中国的金融市场都会带过比特币,当主流新闻渠道例如彭博,金融时报,华尔街日报发现比特币,那么火箭又要准备升空了。

除了美联储会议(12月16日)和人民币的汇率,没有其他东西对比特币价格的影响更大了。上面的图表显示了随着人民币贬值,比特币溢价上升。要查阅中国人民银行每日美元兑人民币银行同业拆息,可以参考 这里。如果你有幸有订阅彭博或路透的金融服务,你可以查阅每日的人民币汇率定价,定价是在每天早上9:15am(北京时间 GMT+8) 公布

别跟联署局斗(传统金融市场的俚语,就是说上车要看联署局对市场的态度和目标)。反观比特币而言,别跟中国的央行斗。

比特币现货

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-30 at 1.36.28 pm

$400, 我来咯~。全球的宏观经济对比特币提供了不少的正面支持,阿根廷的货币的货币开始形成混乱,人民币继续贬值,而联署局亦被认为会加息,这些因素对比特币上涨都十分有利。然而 $400 这个点位不会像上个月这么容易上破,从$500的回调算是缓慢和平稳,然而近来的价格上升不少都有点恐慌性买入的味道,要是RMB继续下跌,对于上涨有利。

交易建议:
日交割100倍杠杆期货XBT24H:在现货介乎$375-380之间买入,获利目标为$385
周交割50倍杠杆期货XBT24H:在现货介乎$375-385之间买入,获利目标为$400

风险披露

BitMEX是不是持牌财务顾问。本快讯中所提供的信息为意见,不是事实。比特币是高波动的交易工具,并且可以在任何方向快速移动。 BitMEX不负责任何因为按照这个建议做成的交易亏损。