系统开发概要: 2018 年 2 月 2 日

在今天北京时间 21:00 , BitMEX 平台的交易量和实时注册量都创下了记录。此流量导致我们云伺服器上的代理网络流量堵塞,导致数据被迫进行备份。这些数据流太大最终导致一连串的网站用户请求新的数据映像,这么大的流量最后令网站一度瘫痪。

我们通过暂时停止交易,重置了受影响的平台服务及交易功能。之后几个小时的表现仍然不佳,但是我们成功解决了导致网速慢的两个主要系统之一。在撰写本文时,我们的读数显示网络延迟远远低于 24 小时平均值。

第二个系统将很快迁移,并将缓解这个问题。即便作出上述容量扩充,我们仍然面临引擎层面速度缓慢的情况,导致许多用户收到吓人的“过载”信息。我们了解客户正面临着这个问题,我们的团队也在积极解决该问题。解决方案涉及重新构建 BitMEX 操作系统,因此我们正在进行大量的规划和测试。一旦该项工作完成,我们会告知您。

其他消息方面,前端界面的一些更新也已经推出,包括一个新的弹出聊天框。由于升级关系,某些用户聊天框可能会卡在高速缓存。如果您的界面显示上述情况,请全屏显示图表,然后关闭全屏窗口。如果仍不起作用,请清除您的浏览器缓存。

 

Can’t we all just get along? Scaling Bitcoin

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Scaling Bitcoin had another conference in Milan over the past weekend. Sparing the devaluation of the Yuan, the price has shot up given a few developments (or lack there of) that have come out of it. 

If you will recall the last time devs and miners met back in early August (as written about here), the price moved down from the auspicious $666 to $610.
News about the meeting was the last thing people spoke about as Bitfinex stole the headlines with its hack the very next day.

Now the topic of scaling Bitcoin is back on the table with Segwit, Core, Classic and Unlimited all attempting to solve Bitcoin scalability issues. For those needing a gentle reminder about the ongoing debate, it comes down to the block size increase.

Right now Bitcoin has a 1MB cap and currently can process around 3 to 7 transactions per second, compare that with the VISA network, which can process hundreds of thousands per second.

To increase the number of transactions per second, Bitcoin must increase its block size. Here are the main schools of thought on how to achieve this:

Segwit and Core: The Segregated Witness soft-fork (Segwit) is a software update that has been in the works since the start of this year.

Spearheaded by Bitcoin Core Devs, it includes a wide range of features such as Malleability Fixes (the large transaction signature verification Denial of Service attack), Linear Scaling of Sighash Operations, and a Block size increase to around 1.6MB.

To be activated, this method requires 95% consensus. Further details can be found here.

In the future, Segwit will move to a second-layer chain technology called the Lightning Network. Lightning purports to process more transations quicker, but some doubt its readiness [Twitter].

Segwit’s main problem is that it requires an alteration of the structure of Bitcoin transactions and require all nodes, mining pools, wallets, exchanges, etc to update their software. There have also been questions surrounding why it will not increase the block limit to 4MB.

Classic (aka BIP 109):Classic is supported by Gavin Andresen and another team of Bitcoin devs. Classic would increase the block size to 2MB. Additionally it would introduce a democratic decision-making process surrounding future code changes.

Bitcoin Unlimited (BU): Advocates for no hard block size limit.
Instead, it allows users to manually set their limit on their own nodes. It also introduces a form of democracy. Lead devs will be elected every two years by BU members, and a president / secretary will be elected to handle high level management and administration issues.

After the end of the Scaling Bitcoin conference, the ViaBTC mining pool announced support for BU. [Medium] They dedicated all of their hash power to BU, approximately 10%, and thus effectively stopped Segwit in its tracks.

ViaBTC’s announcement directlyu preceded a price pop from $615 to $640.

Will Bitcoin Unlimited win the scaling debate? Who knows but this announcement is certainly causing waves in the Bitcoin community.

We have finally reached a point where miners are taking definitive action. That is price positive.

What Bitcoin needs most right now is certainty. Any generally accepted path towards more transactions being processed faster is better than wallowing in a sea of doubt as to how Bitcoin will scale.

 

Altcoin Mean Reversion Basket

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It’s a testament to the increasing maturity of the Bitcoin market that traders get excited for only a 4% upward movement. Bitcoin’s breakout above $600 has reawakened trader interest. Over the past few months, many crypto traders focused solely on altcoins.

The chart above lists the weekly % return of Bitcoin and a few of the most popular altcoins in USD terms. Usually as Bitcoin rises, altcoins will get dumped aggressively. This time around the results are mixed.

The worst performer, Augur (REP), is down over 30%. This can mostly be attributed to mean reversion. REP still trades at multiples higher than it’s ICO price. For initial investors, REP is still a home run. It is to be expected that some of the air seeps out of that bubble as traders take profit. If Augur can successfully facilitate the creation of bets on anything in a decentralised fashion, I expect a resumption of the rally.

Ether (ETH) and Ether Classic (ETC) were the other dogs of the basket. ETH has experienced multiple DDOS attacks, and now it appears another hard fork is needed. Many traders are fleeing to the safety of Bitcoin in preparation of what could be another volatile event. I feel traders are losing interest in ETC. They are cashing in their free money and moving on. But with such a low nominal price, the price could quickly spike higher if a small amount of hashing power is added.

Monero (XMR) managed outsized gains when compared with Bitcoin. XMR appears to have bottomed and is now retracing its fall from grace. Over the last two weeks, XMR fell over 28%. With Zcash launching in under a month, will Monero be able to hold its own against another anonymous coin competitor?

Mean reversion is a powerful thing. Altcoin returns all over the map. An equally weighted basket where you buy the dogs and sell the stars, could prove profitable over a one to two week time period. This basket can be constructed entirely with BitMEX products, and using only Bitcoin as margin.

Example Basket:

Spread 50 Bitcoin of risk equally amongst the dogs, and buy each name. Spread 50 Bitcoin of risk equally amongst the stars, and sell each name. If the dogs rise and the stars fall, the basket will show a positive return.

Buy, The Dogs

Augur, REP7D

Ether, ETHXBT

Ether Classic, ETC7D

Sell, The Stars

Ripple, XRP7D

Monero, XMR7D

USDCNY 7.00 Equals Bitcoin $1,000

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As I predicted last week in my article entitled “Yuan Internationalisation and Bitcoin”, the PBOC resumed the depreciation of the Yuan after the Golden Week holiday. Throughout 2016, the PBOC defended USDCNY 6.70. On Monday, they weakened the yuan to 6.7008 and in the following days continued slicing and dicing.

The next psychological level for USDCNY is 7.00, which is 4.47% higher than current levels. Central banks are organisations committed to conning the market into believing their version of economic reality. All eyes are on the PBOC, and any action or non-action it takes will provide summary judgement on the health of the Chinese economy.

The China credit fuelled growth miracle has stalled. The politics of rebalancing the Chinese economy will prove very tough. Just like any other government, China is attempting to forestall tough decisions by continuing to pump enormous amounts of credit into the economy.

All these newly printed Yuan will find a home either domestically or internationally. If the PBOC continues to keep the Yuan relatively strong, inflation will rise dramatically at home. Food and housing inflation are already rising, and at some point the population will become more vocal about the raw deal they are receiving. They are losing their heavy industry jobs by the millions. At the same time, rent and property prices are skyrocketing in cities. Add food, in particular pork, price inflation to the mix, and you have a recipe for social unrest.

The Party cannot allow social unrest, so the other option is to export Yuan abroad. That will be done through currency debasement. Given the amount of new Yuan that must find a home, the currency will fall. The question is how fast and by how much. Up until the IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR) inclusion, the process was slow and orderly. Now that China is through the velvet rope, they will become more aggressive.

Many financial analysts are calling for USDCNY at 7.00 by year end. Given the gyrations that currencies are experiencing these days, a 5% deprecation in three months is not extreme. After that physiological level is breached, will that launch a full scale flight to safety by anyone holding CNY?

I believe the answer is yes. And as the CNY approaches 7.00, Bitcoin will approach $1,000. The CNY knife party started last August. From August 2015 until this week, CNY depreciated by 8%. Bitcoin over the same period rose 128%. There are obviously other factors at play, but Chinese monetary policy is driving a substantial part of the Bitcoin rally.

Using a simple linear extrapolation, if CNY weakens further to 7.00, Bitcoin should rise to $1,050. Chinese monetary policy will not be the only ingredient needed for Bitcoin to pop through its all time high. But if Bitcoin can take out $700 then $800 on the back of a weaker Yuan, a positive feedback loop will form and help propel Bitcoin higher.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: September 11, 2015 (Inverted Head And Shoulders Pattern)

Entry:

Buy long XBTU15 (BitMEX weekly BTC/USD futures contract) while OKCoin.com spot is at 239-240 USD with a spot stop limit of 236 USD.

Exit:

Close XBTU15 long position at 255-260 USD;

consider reducing the position by 40%-60% by taking profit at 250 USD.

Video Analysis: