The past week in Bitcoin has been one for the record books, after blasting through the $460 level of resistance the week before, Bitcoin in the past week has gone from $500 to almost a 2 year high of $593.89 on Bitfinex and is now trading in a $560 – $590 range. The next key resistance levels are $590 and $600 and in the China world it is 3900 and 4000 CNY. The predominant driver for this rise has been the devaluation of the CNY with China leading the rise in which we saw BTC/CNY premiums rise near 10%. Premiums have since come down since that point (as a side note, this was a great trade – short BTCCNY long BTCUSD), but they are still trading positive nonetheless indicating that we are still in a bullish short-term environment.
With the Bitcoin Halving looming in about 30-odd days time, many traders are looking back to the last halving in 2012 where on the halving date price was $12.50 and half a year later it was $130. There are many reasons why this analysis is incorrect and I don’t believe we will see the same return structure as we did 4 years ago. However we have some interesting dynamics that were discussed in previous newsletters: the ETH and DAO fallout and Bitcoin’s return to glory, Yellen’s hawkishness, investors desire for assets such as gold in a negative rate enviornment, CNY devaluation, and Brexit as discussed above. I believe these factors all contribute to a positive indicator for a medium-term view on Bitcoin.
Looking at the longer term and bigger picture of Bitcoin, the water becomes very muddy. I see Bitcoin’s sustainability to be either as a stable and respectable safe-haven currency to be compared with gold or in its usability with true functionality as a payment processor with wide-spread adoption. Whatever route we take depends on the path the community takes right now. I have faith however, given that Bitcoin has shown to be resilient time and time again after being
上一周比特币再次创历史纪录，从突破了460美元的阻力位后，这个一个礼拜上破500美元达到了593.89美元的两年高位。现在比特币的价格在560 至 590元的区间徘徊，下一个关键的位置将会是590和600美元，人民币代表价值则是3900 及4000人民币。
这次暴涨的主要诱因是人民币的贬值，并由人民币交易市场主导比特币的升幅。我们曾经高见近一成的人民币市场溢价。溢价现在基本上已经被摊平（顺带一提，做空了人民币盘并做多了美盘的投资者，恭喜你！），短期内我们还是在牛市之内。
随着三十多天后比特币产量减半，许多投资者回想着在2012的时候减半前的价格是$ 12.50，半年后转眼就飙升至$ 130。不过这种分析是不正确的，因为市场还有很多其他变数，我不相信我们会看到与四年前相同的回报率。然而，我们在以前的时事通讯中讨论的一些有趣的动态：在ETH和DAO下行的影响下，比特币将成为市场的焦点。耶伦的强硬态度，投资者在负利率市场下渴求如黄金保值的资产，人民币贬值，还有前文提及的退欧。我相信，这些因素都有助于对比特币中期的走势。
放长双眼，比特币的大局观并不是十分清晰。我看到比特币的可持续发展性可能归向能够与黄金对比的避险货币，或者有环球支付通道的实用性。走哪条路线还需要市场决定 ，然而我对比特币有信心，因为比特币的刚性早就已经被死了100次还安在而证明。