My Xmas Wishlist: President Trump and a Fed Rate Hike

I am structurally long Bitcoin via my ownership stake in BitMEX, as such I want to see more volatility and more people turn to Bitcoin. I believe that a Trump win, and a Fed rate hike will add fuel to Bitcoin’s price rally.

Anthony Weiner’s wiener pics may land both himself and Hillary Clinton in the slammer for the rest of their natural lives. Due to emails recovered on his computer, the FBI is ‘reopening’ its investigation into Clinton. That bombshell was dropped last Friday night, and has caused a complete reversal of the American presidential race polls.

Trump who only weeks ago was behind by double digits, has pulled even. The spectre of a possible criminal indictment for obstruction of justice, and the mishandling classified material has all but finished Clinton’s chance of becoming the nation’s first female president.

I don’t believe that either of these clowns would alter Pax Americana’s crash course. However, a Trump presidency has spooked the markets and it will hasten the inevitable. There are a litany of economic, political, demographic, and social problems afflicting all developed and developing nations.

When traders become afraid, they begin to recognise all the ills of the world. That is how global financial crises begin. After ignoring all these issues for the past 7 years, a good old meltdown is on the cards.

Anything that gold likes, Bitcoin loves. Bitcoin and other digital currencies benefit from market volatility. The rise of Trump has caused gold to retake $1,300, bond yields to rise, and equity markets globally to slide. If he enters the soon to be gold-plated Trump House, I anticipate a Brexit style market meltdown.

The Federal Reserve met on Wednesday this week. As expected, they left rates unchanged one week prior to the election. They did however reiterate their stance that a December rate hike is extremely likely. Trump in various speeches has called the Fed’s policy of money printing irresponsible. Grandma Yellen will grant Trump his wish and hike. It would be just deserts for Trump to watch the S&P 500 freefall below 2,000 after his victory.

The election takes place next Tuesday, November 8th. Given how close the race is, I do not expect a clear winner announced for many days after the polls close. The 2016 election will be very similar to the 2000 election where the United States Supreme Court effectively crowned George W. Bush consul.

This uncertainty will do more damage to the markets than a clearcut Trump victory. During this vacuum, I expect Bitcoin and gold to perform tremendously. Add in the threat of a Fed rate hike, and continued devaluation of the Chinese Yuan, and you have the recipe for a $1,000 Bitcoin.