Will Segwit be activated? Will a hard fork occur? Will the block size ever increase? These are the burning questions that act as a drag on further Bitcoin price appreciation. I don’t know how it will all pan out, but that doesn’t mean that BitMEX can’t allow its clients the ability to profit by predicting how Bitcoin will or will not scale.
BitMEX is pleased to announce the launch of two prediction futures contracts themed around the ongoing Bitcoin scaling debate.
SEGWIT, symbol: B_SEGWITZ17, is a prediction future on whether or not BIP141, also known as Segregated Witness, will be activated on the longest Bitcoin chain by the expiry date (31 December 2017, 12:00 UTC).
SEGWIT will settle at 100:
- If BIP141 is activated during an “activation period” by the expiry date, and
- The Bitcoin chain that activated SegWit must remain the Bitcoin chain with the largest hash power for 1,512 out of the following 2,016 blocks (75%). These 1,512 blocks must have passed by the expiry date.
SEGWIT will settle at 0 if the above conditions are not met.
What is an Activation Period?
An activation period spans one difficulty period (2016 blocks). 95% of the blocks mined during an activation period must signal acceptance of BIP141 for SegWit to be activated.
BLOCKS, symbol: B_BLOCKSZ17, is a prediction future on whether a block larger than 1MB will be mined on the longest Bitcoin chain.
BLOCKS will settle at 100:
- If a greater than 1MB block is mined on the Bitcoin chain with the largest hash power, and
- If the Bitcoin chain that mined the greater than 1MB block must remain the Bitcoin chain with the largest hash power for 1,512 out of the following 2,016 blocks (75%). These 1,512 blocks must have passed by the expiry date.
BLOCKS will settle at 0 if the above conditions are not met.
Note that blocks of size > 1MB due to SegWit activation shall not mean a block greater than 1MB has been mined; BLOCKS is contingent on an actual base block size limit increase.
Trading Prediction Futures
Each contract can either settle at 100 or 0. The value of each contract is 0.0001 XBT multiplied by the futures price. For example, if you bought one contract at 50.00 , it would be worth 0.005 XBT. If the contract settled at 100, you would make 0.005 XBT. If the contract settled at 0, you would lose 0.005 XBT.
No leverage is offered on prediction futures contracts.
You will find all BitMEX prediction futures contracts under the tab entitled “Binary”. All prediction futures contracts’ symbols will begin with “B_”. This prefix denotes that contracts are binary, meaning they will either settle at 100 or 0.