第一个 DCO,然后就是 ETF

恭喜 LedgerX 的 Paul 和 Juthica 登陆应许之地!

 

美国有 16 家注册的衍生品清算机构(DCO)。 本周,美国商品期货交易委員会(CFTC) 批准了 LedgerX 的申请,使之成为第 17 个活跃的 DCO。 LedgerX 专注于比特币相关衍生产品。 这是美国监管机构对比特币和整个数字货币行业态度的巨大转变。

 

CFTC 认为 LedgerX 能够代表交易所用户安全地存储大量的比特币。 任何监管机构最大的担忧之一是受监管个体如何处理比特币存储。 这些年来的各个交易所被黑都告诉公众,比特币监管是一项危险的工作。 如果发生这种情况,批准这个 LedgerX 的官员定必失去面子,并且结束仕途。

 

只有高资产账户才能成为 LedgerX 的授权参与者。 要与 LedgerX 进行交易,参与者必须拥有数百万美元的现金。 这将投资者限制在大型金融机构内。 交易所愈趋普及将暗示银行和大型贸易公司对比特币的渴求。

 

受到监管标志认可并不意味着 LedgerX 不会被黑客入侵;它只提供可靠的保护,以防他们亏了客户的存款。如果一家金融机构在 LedgerX 上交易,而不幸丢失比特币,他们可以有适当的交代,因为他们与受监管机构交易。

 

CFTC 认可比特币 DCO,SEC 是时候出手了

如果 CFTC 正在寻求金融的未来,那么 SEC 将会怎样面对呢?他们可以坐下来继续拒绝 ETF 的申请吗?他们不能说比特币是不安全的,因为他们的姐妹监管机构已经用行动否认了这个指控。他们不能声称比特币来源对于零售交易产品来说是一个问题,因为受监管的 DCO 已经持有比特币了。

 

假设 CFTC 和 SEC 不是坐在同一条船上。传统股票、固定收益和大宗商品挂牌产品交易量呈下降趋势。银行的季度盈利报告指出,股票、固定收益和商品交易量长期下滑。正如我一再说,比特币和数字货币交易是全球增长最快的收费池。

 

监管机构是庞大金融机构的奴隶。 以这种方式,他们将从数字货币交易中获取费用。银行首领以前对比特币鄙视纯粹是对公众做的一场大戏。

 

2017 年毫无疑问地证明,促进交易和为数字货币提供金融服务是一个长期可行的业务。 一个价值低于数十亿美元的行业能刷出 1 亿美元收费真的是惊人的。对与大市相联性低的资产篮子需求将迫使银行踏入这个圈子。

 

个人散户投资者不能在 LedgerX 上进行交易。 但是,我们应该为即将到来的弥赛亚,ETF ,感到兴奋。美国证券交易委员会不能继续当一朵高傲的玫瑰。 我预测一个或多个 ETF 申请将在未来 18 个月内获得批准。

First DCO, Then ETF

Congratulations to Paul and Juthica at LedgerX for reaching the promised land!

There are 16 registered Derivatives Clearing Organisations (DCO) in America. This week the CFTC approved LedgerX’s application to become the 17th active DCO. LedgerX specifically focuses on Bitcoin related derivatives. This is a monumental shift in attitude of US regulators towards Bitcoin and the digital currency industry as a whole.

The CFTC deems LedgerX capable of safely storing significant amounts of Bitcoin on behalf of exchange members. One of the biggest concerns that any regulator has is how a regulated entity will handle Bitcoin storage. The various exchange hacks over the years proves that Bitcoin custody is a dangerous endeavour. Should this happen, the loss of face will surely end the career of the bureaucrat in charge.

Only large trading accounts can become authorised participants on LedgerX. To trade on LedgerX, participants must have several millions of dollars in cash. That restricts the universe of traders to large financial institutions. The popularity of the exchange come launch will provide clues as to the appetite of banks and large trading houses towards Bitcoin.

The regulatory stamp of approval does not mean LedgerX won’t get hacked; it provides convenient cover in case they do. If a financial institution trades on LedgerX and Bitcoins are lost, they can wash their hands of the loss because they traded with a regulated institution.

CFTC raises one Bitcoin DCO, action to the SEC

If the CFTC is looking towards the future of finance, what conversations are big dogs at the SEC having? Can they sit back and continue to deny applications for ETFs? They can’t claim Bitcoin is unsafe, for their sister regulator body has deemed them so. They can’t claim that Bitcoin provenance presents an issue for a retail traded product, for a regulated DCO holds Bitcoin.

It is naive to assume the CFTC and SEC heads do not break bread. Traditional equity, fixed income, and commodity listed products’ trading volumes are declining. Banks’ quarterly earnings reports point to a secular decline in equity, fixed income, and commodity trading volumes. As I have repeatedly said, Bitcoin and digital currency trading represents the fastest growing fee pool globally.

The regulatory bodies are slaves of the TBTF financial institutions. One way or another they will earn fees from digital currency trading. The disdain previously shown by bank chieftains is purely for public consumption.

2017 proves without a doubt that facilitating trading and providing financial services for digital currencies is a viable long term business. Hundreds of millions of dollars in fees earned on an industry with a sub-$100B market cap is truly astounding. The demand for a subset of non-correlated assets will force banks to play ball.

Mere retail mortals cannot trade on LedgerX. However, we should be excited for the messiah, an ETF. The SEC cannot continue to be a prude rose. I predict that one or more applications for an ETF will be approved within the next 18 months.

 

要不臣服 要不硬分叉

当年今日

在 2016 年 5 月,Slock.it 团队幻想了一个天才的方式,为自己的项目筹集资金,而不需要找风险投资公司投资。 他们创建了一个去中心化自治组织(DAO),以组织形式从投资者那里筹集资金。 每个投资者成为 DAO 的有限合伙人(LP)。 以太坊智能合约管理了 DAO,由 LP 投票决定投资哪些项目。 而第一个,也是最受欢迎的项目就是 Slock.it。

 

DAO 筹集了 1.5 亿美元的 ETH,当时是人类历史上最大规模的众筹项目。 不幸的是,DAO 的智能合约写得不好,一个人通过代码中的漏洞,提走了合约三分之一的资金。

 

“代码就是法律” – 这是 DAO 啦啦队长的口头禅,其中包括 Vitalik 和他在以太坊基金会的支持者。 他们对劣质合约代码的盲目信仰使他们陷入困境。

 

那么基金会是否应该用政治资本来劝说交易所、矿工和持有人接受以太币硬分叉,来打救这个烂摊子呢? 基金会选择了是,打破了 DAO 的第一条诫命:将以太坊硬分叉,回滚使 DAO 看似从未发生过。

 

社区里的很多人,特别是交易所并不满意以太坊基金会拯救 DAO 投资者的做法。 基金会天真地假设没有人会想在被污染的 DAO 以太坊区块链里面玩。 Poloniex 看到​​了一个机会,并挂牌了 经典以太币(ETC)。 其余的就成为了历史。

 

现在

本星期 美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 宣布 DAO 是一个集体投资计划,因此是一种证劵。不过他们没有对发起 DAO 的法人或交易所采取任何法律行动,他们只是向社区提醒要小心这个法律风险。

 

SEC 没有当众把 Slock.it 和 Ethereum 基金会成员带走绝对是十分宽容。

 

硬叉不久之后,谣言开始流传:是证券交易委员会施压,要求基金会通过硬叉重写历史。 威胁是明确的:要么面对支持和出售无牌证券销售的民事或刑事诉讼,要么进行硬分叉。 鉴于美国证券交易委员会最近冷淡的作风,这些指控或许是真的。

 

回过头去思考一下,SEC 可能就是创建 ETC 始作俑者,真是多么讽刺。

 

许多以以太坊协议为基础的创新和颠覆性应用将挑战政府在各行各业的主导地位。 然而,自从以太币基金会臣服一年之后,以太币的社群是不是已经足够去中心化以共同迎接有关政府监管机构呢?在政府的压力之下,基金会又会否尝试另一个硬分叉来消除一个颠覆强大机构的应用呢。

 

对于那些重仓投资了 “破坏性创新”的人来说,这一连串的事件应该让他们冷静。 他们崭新且耀眼的发财工具的,可能会招来监管机构的嫉妒,从而让政府可以合法地强奸那些胆小的创始人。臣服或硬叉,他们又会如何选择呢?

 

ICO 下一步是什么?

SEC 并没有对所有的 ICO 作出判断。 相反,他们澄清说,如果你的代币显然是一种股权,就不要在美国玩了。大多数 ICO 项目都用尽方法,避免自己收到这封信。

 

这一举措肯定会抑制投资者的热情,然而,卖出应用的使用权这个基础是没有受到挑战的。世界将会看到更少的 ICO 具有股权特征,不过在 DAO 事件后,这些类型的交易都不是很受欢迎。

 

Tezos,EOS 和 Bancor 是 2017 年 ICO 募资的前三名。 这些都是一些执行特定指令的协议。 这些代币都不是集体投资计划,也不给代币拥有人得到公司权益。

 

所以别慌,继续趴提继续嗨,咱们一起赚大钱。

 

 

Bend Over or Hard Fork

Quick Recap

In May 2016, the Slock.it team dreamed up a genius way to raise money for their project without prostrating themselves before VC firms. They created a Decentralised Autonomous Organisation (DAO) that raised money from investors in the form of Ether. Each investor became a limited partner (LP) of the DAO. An Ethereum smart contract governed the DAO whereby LPs voted on which projects to fund. Conveniently the first and most popular project was Slock.it.

The DAO raised $150 million of ETH, and at the time was the largest crowdfunding project in human history. Unfortunately the DAO’s smart contract was written poorly, and an individual was able to siphon off a third of the AUM by exploiting a flaw in the code.

“Code is Law” – the mantra of DAO cheerleaders, which included Vitalik and his acolytes at the Ethereum Foundation. Their blind faith in shoddy smart contract code landed them in a bind.

Should the foundation use its political capital to persuade exchanges, miners, and holders to accept an Ethereum hard fork to bail out greedy punters? The foundation chose Yes, breaking the first commandment of DAOs: hard forking Ethereum so that the DAO never happened.

Many in the community, especially exchanges, were not pleased that the Ethereum Foundation bailed out DAO investors. The foundation naively assumed no one would want to want the own the chain that contained the tainted DAO. Poloniex saw an opportunity, and listed Ethereum Classic (ETC). The rest is history.

The Present Day

This week the SEC ruled that the DAO was a collective investment scheme, and thus a security. They did not bring any enforcement action against the promoters or exchanges that allowed trading of the DAO, they just issued caution.

The SEC displayed a great deal of restraint by not perp-walking principals at Slock.it and or the Ethereum Foundation.

Shortly after the hard fork, rumours began circulating that the SEC pressured the Foundation to rewrite history via a hard fork. The threat was clear: face a civil or criminal action for sponsoring and selling unlicensed securities, or hard fork. Given the recent inaction by the SEC, there is serious weight to these allegations.

Step back and think about it. The SEC may have created ETC. How ironic.

Many of the truly innovative and disruptive applications built on the Ethereum protocol will challenge the supremacy of governments in various industries. However, going on one year since the bending over, is Ethereum decentralised enough now to weather concerted action against it by a concerned government regulator? Would the foundation, under government pressure, attempt another hard fork to remove an application that is subversive to a powerful agency.

For those who invest heavily in “disruptive” Ethereum based projects, this chain of events should give them pause. Their new and shiny token might be obliterated by an alphabet letter agency dangling the prospect of government sanctioned rape in front of scared founders. Bend over, or hard fork.

What’s Next for ICOs?

The SEC did not pass judgement on all ICOs. Rather they clarified that if your token is clearly a security, don’t play in the US. Most ICO projects go to great length to avoid this scarlet letter.

This action will certainly dampen investor enthusiasm for a time; however, the underlying premise of selling usage rights in an application is unchallenged. The world will see fewer ICOs with equity like features, but after the DAO those types of deals were never the most popular anyway.

Tezos, Eos, and Bancor are the top three ICOs of 2017 in terms of money raised. All of them are protocols to perform a set of tasks. None of these tokens are collective investment schemes, or provide the owner with rights in a privately listed company. Keep calm, and party like it’s 1999.

投资者访谈 – ETFdeniedbot

ETFdeniedbot 是今年 BitMEX 表现最好的投资者。自从 3 月份以来,他在 BitMEX 的投资回报率达到惊人的 23225.66%。他并不是只有一次幸运地羸得100倍,相反,他一直大获全胜。发现这样的投资者是极其少见的。我们联络了他,他欣然同意接受我们的采访。他经常活跃在 Trollbox 中,让我们继续注意他的表现。

 

1. 你是如何开始在 BitMEX 交易的?

我在 2013 年底买进了比特币,但仅仅在半年前才开始积极交易。由于我需要一个无延迟的交易平台,因此在 ETF 决议之前的 3 月初开始在 BitMEX 交易。在 ETF 拉倒后,我才开始成为赚钱的投资者。

2. 我注意到当你首次使用 BitMEX 注册时,没有投入大量资金。 你认为当你开始时你的初始资本重要吗?

初始资本规模可以改变一些可用的策略。一般来说,拥有小量资本可以让你在较短的时间内买卖,仍然可以获利。然而,这也归结于你实际拥有多少资本。即使这笔钱是你能够承受范围内的损失,只要这笔钱是一定份量的金额,那就很难控制你的情绪。特别是因为在开始获得稳定的利润之前,你可能会失去至少 50% 的收益(我曾经几乎失去了所有的本金,而且需要投资更多)。所以在我看来,初始资本不像投资而是更像交易中的学费。

3. 你开始交易的动机是什么?

显然是金钱。我已经投资了比特币,认为这是一个很酷的想法,尝试把它翻成两倍甚至三倍。在被动地看图表多年后,我认为我可以买卖比特币,可以尝试预测价格。尝试投资看看,赔了不少,然后试图赢回它。现在想起那时候还真像一个瘾君子。

4. 你为什么喜欢在 BitMEX 交易?

最初我选择了 BitMEX 的原因,是因为这里允许高杠杆和一些在 Reddit 上看到的好评。现在我不知道  BitMEX 有什么理由去不喜欢它。大交易量,高流动性,低廉的费用,逐仓保证金系统,安全的钱包,良好的客户服务,没有言论管制的聊天室。你甚至可以得到由于 GDAX 宕机带来价格闪崩所导致损失的赔偿。另外,界面也很不错。

5. 什么是在交易时要参考的关键要素?

放量瀑布加上大量的多头爆仓单。我市价买入,然后在几分钟内小反弹出现之后以更好的价位卖出,或者如果价格还没有上涨,继续买入。通常经过很多小时的下跌,出现双底后就会拉升,并且拉得比之前的高位还要高。如果发生这种情况,我拿好我的仓位,等待一个好的高位并在一两个小时内卖出。

6. 你如何管理你的风险?

我开始买入小量的合约,然后随着价格下跌再加仓,但还是保持在 5 倍杠杆以下。我不使用止损委托,我只会尝试在短期的高位卖出。有时这个是很难掌握,有时候我会有很多未实现亏损,但通常我的交易至少能平手出局。如果行情不理想,我可能会恐慌地出售一部分的仓位,但只是为了让我感觉点,通常这些都是见底的时候。除了黑天鹅,价格波动一般不会一下子超过 10% 而没有任何反弹。如果黑天鹅真的出现,我只能趁反弹的时候止损我的所有仓位了。

 

对于在 BitMEX 开始的新手投资者来说,你会有什么建议?

a) 每个人都必须找到自己的交易方式。无论是短期还是长期,买入还是卖出。使用什么指标、风险水平和杠杆。多尝试不同的策略将帮助你找到自己的交易风格。

b)你必须知道什么时候要死扛,什么时候要止损。我已经做了很多不好的或有问题而没有止损的交易。另一方面,早期止损可以为你减轻大量头痛的问题,尽可能减少损失,同时还可以在更好的点位开仓。

c)很多时候,你所做的最好的交易就是没有交易。如果你不知道市场可能做什么,那么你也可以通过掷硬币决定进入市场时机,省的折腾。

d)你必须接受所承担的任何损失,更重要的是不要为了反胜而冒险。此外,如果你损失了很多,并开始失去理智,那就是你需要休息的时候了。

e)忽略你的情绪。不要有害怕错过机会的恐惧,不要恐慌卖出。如果你真的想要做某个交易,总是有一个短期的顶价或底价可以进入,但是如果你错过了机会的话,通常最好静观其变。

f)不要用10 倍以上的杠杆赌博。

g)如果你真的需要满仓梭,那么保持在 25 倍杠杆内并盯盘止损。 (用于仓位大小达 25000 张 XBTUSD 合约以上的)

 

感谢您的时间,真是很有启发访谈!

Trader Interview – ETFdeniedbot

ETFdeniedbot has been BitMEX’s top performing trader this year. Active since March, he has achieved a return on his capital at BitMEX of 23225.66%. He did not just have one lucky win at 100x – he has consistently hit it out of the park. It is rare to find such a trader. We reached out to him and he kindly agreed to an interview. Keep an eye out for him in the Trollbox as he is often active.

1. How did you get started in trading and on BitMEX?

I bought into bitcoin at the end of 2013, but only started actively trading it a bit over half a year ago. Moved over to BitMEX at the start of March right before the ETF decision since I needed a lag-free place to trade. I only started being a profitable trader after the ETF had blown over.

2. I notice that you did not start with a large amount when you first signed up with BitMEX. Do you think the size of your initial capital matters when you start out?

The initial capital size can change some of the strategies available to you. In general, having less means you can hold your positions open for a smaller time period and still make a good profit. However, it also comes down to how much capital you actually have. Even if the money is something you can afford to lose, as long as the sum is a non-trivial amount it’ll be hard to cut your emotional ties to it. Especially since it’s likely you will lose at least 50% of it before starting to make a consistent profit (I lost pretty much all of mine and had to invest more.) So in my mind, the initial capital is less like an investment and more like a cost for a lesson in trading.

3. What were your motivations to start trading?

Well obviously there’s the money. I was already invested into bitcoin and figured it would be a cool idea to try to double or triple the amount. After passively watching the charts for years I thought I had a handle on bitcoin and could try to predict the price. Gave it a shot and lost quite a bit and then tried to win it all back like a true addict.

4. Why do you like trading on BitMEX?

Initially I picked BitMEX cause of the high leverage allowed and some comments on Reddit. Nowadays I’m not sure what there isn’t to like. High volume, high liquidity, low fees all around, isolated leverage, secure wallet, good customer support, no nazi-mods in the trollbox. You even refunded those liquidations caused by the GDAX downtime and subsequent flash crash out of your own pockets. Plus the UI is nice.

5. What are the key things you look for when placing a trade?

Big moves downward and high volume combined with big long liquidations. Then I just market buy and either dump my position after a small retrace up within minutes or keep buying if the price isn’t going up yet. Usually after many hours of dropping there’s a double bottom combined with a retrace going higher than the previous high. If that happens I try to keep my position open and wait for a good top to sell within the next hour or two.

6. How do you manage your risk?

I start buying small and then increase the position as it goes deeper, but trying to always stay below 5x. I don’t use stops and I only try to sell at a local top. Sometimes it gets pretty sweaty and I have a lot of unrealized losses but usually the trades end up at least breaking even. If things get really bad I might panic sell a bit of my position just to feel better, but I found that’s usually right at the bottom. Barring any black swans, it’s unlikely the price will tank more than 10% in one go without a retrace, and when the retrace happens I just dump it all regardless of losses.

7. What would be your advice to novice traders starting out on BitMEX?

a) Everyone has to find their own way to trade. Whether it’s short-term or long-term, buying or selling. What indicators, risk-levels, and leverage to use. Experimenting with different strategies will help you find your style.

b) You have to know when to be bull-headed and when to eat the loss. I’ve made plenty of bad or questionable trades but got out unscathed by just holding them open. On the other hand, an early stop-loss can save you a lot of headache and minimize the losses, while also allowing you to enter at a better price.

c) Very often the best trade you make is the one you don’t. If you have no clue what the market might do, then you may as well be flipping a coin by entering the market.

d) Any losses you take have to be accepted, and more importantly don’t try to win it all back by taking more risks. Additionally, if you lose a lot and start to tilt, it’s time to take a break.

e) Ignore your emotions. Don’t FOMO, don’t panic sell. There’s always a local top or bottom to enter at if you really want to, but usually it’s better to just sit it out if you missed the run.

f) Don’t gamble with 10x+ leverage.

g) If you really do want to gamble all-in, stick to 25x with a manual panic close if it’s not going your way. (This only works with position sizes up to 25k with XBTUSD though.)

Thanks for your time, truly an inspiration!

养老院

那些能买得起飞机的人是全球最富有的人。最狂热的旅行者是中年到老年人。他们拥有最多可使用的收入和时间。

私人银行十分欢迎中老年人,因为他们拥有最多的现金。在机场,私人银行的广告清楚地显示出银行最需要哪个年龄层的客户。通常广告中有一对老年夫妇与年轻子孙。带出清楚的讯息:投资未来。你可能会死,但你的后代值得拥有你劳动的成果。

因为有着这个目标市场,私人银行是保守的。优越的银行体系巧妙地建议一个坚实、稳定和负责任的金融机构。一旦被纳入高净值会员俱乐部,您就可以期待无可挑剔的服务和高昂的交易费用。

你的银行家/保姆会把他或她自己作为专业和的精英缩影。穿着的服饰和珠宝都是顶级的:爱马仕领带,Louboutin 高跟鞋,香奈儿手提包等,向你保证,这个人是专业的,优雅的,可以与你的生活经验相关。

将最低投资金额限度的数百万美元交给尊贵的机构后,他们会将很多的“合适”投资机会演示给你。考虑到客户的年龄,搜寻低风险,大于通货膨胀的资产是这场游戏的玩法。

自 2009 年以来的金钱疯狂印刷派对已经使老年固定收益投资者的回报黯然失色,迫使市场寻找购买较低价钱和较高收益率的垃圾债务,以及较高风险和较高市盈率的股票。没有投资者认为市场被低估。每一个年龄层和风格的投资者都在努力寻找下一个和现有市场不相关的热门事物。

比特币和数字货币终于成为投资领域的一小部分。资产管理人员可以以高额的费用向客户出售任何资产。问题是上述资产阶层的一般看法是什么呢?

直到今年之前,比特币和加密货币是无政府主义者和毒品使用者的玩物。当数字货币综合市值达到1000 亿美元的市值时,他们将成为替代的新兴投资。私人银行家可以直接把他们的沉闷、保守的老年客户推到数字货币投资领域。最重要的是,由于资产类别如此新鲜,所以可以收取大量的手续费。

瑞士猎鹰私人银行获得许可,可以向其客户提供比特币投资产品。一定有银行紧随其后,猎鹰私人银行受到失去新加坡牌照和有关 1MDB 的丑闻威胁。他们的品牌没有什么价值可以失去了。在这个阶段,为了突出自己,提供的全面加密货币产品是明智的选择。

新加坡是亚洲的瑞士。新加坡金融管理局(MAS)肯定会感觉压力而允许一个或多个私人银行提供类似的产品。新加坡金管局有强大的权力,使新加坡成为全球的金融科技中心。提供比特币和其他数字货币产品的正确路线图将会实现。

其他对于金融科技和私人银行业友好的管辖区也将采取类似的框架来鼓励国内私人银行提供类似的产品。目前传统的金融产品很无聊,收益也很低。反之围绕数字货币的投资建议像是一个丰厚的金矿。监管机构不能忽视其成员银行的要求,以便从客户那里获取更多的资金。

随着越来越多的银行和资产管理人员对数字货币钱包的安全感到满意,只需要一点点的支持,那么大量的资金就会进入数字货币领域。硬分叉的闹剧对于长期(大于 6 个月区间)投资者来说没太大影响。投资于此类新兴资产的政治、监管和媒体资本将会有美好的未来。

Old Folks’ Home

Those who can afford a plane flight are amongst the richest globally. The most avid travellers are the middle aged to geriatric. They have the most disposable income and time.

Private banks cater to the middle aged and elderly because they have the most cash. The advertisements of private banks in airports provide a clear glimpse into which age cohorts bank desire. Usually the advertisement features a elderly couple with young grandchildren. The message is clear: invest for the future. You might be dead, but your progeny deserves the fruits of your labor.

Due to the target market, private banks are conservative and stuffy. Impressive bank edifices subtly suggest a solid, stable, and responsible financial institution. Once accepted into the the high net worth (HNW) members club, you can expect impeccable service and egregious transaction fees.

Your banker / babysitter will present him or herself as the epitome of class and sophistication. The costume jewellery worn: Hermes ties, Louboutin heels, Chanel totes etc., assure you that this person is professional, classy, and can relate to your life experiences.

After handing over your minimum low digit millions of USD to a venerable institution, a plethora of “suitable” investment opportunities are presented to you. Given the age demographic of clients, the search for low risk, greater than inflation yielding assets is the name of the game.

The money printing orgy since 2009 has decimated returns for elderly fixed income investors. The dash for trash in search of yield necessitated buying junk debt at lower and lower yields, and equities at higher and higher P/E ratios. No investors believe the market is undervalued. Investors of all ages and styles are now alternative investors looking for the next uncorrelated hot thing.

Bitcoin and digital currencies in general are finally a tiny fixture of the investment universe. Anything that asset managers can sell to their clients at high fees will be adopted. The question is what is the general perception of the said asset class.

Up until this year, Bitcoin and altcoins were playthings of anarchists and drug users. When the digital currency complex reached $100 billion market cap, they became alternative investments. Private bankers, with a straight face, can push their stuffy, conservative, geriatric clients into digital currency investments. The best part is, because the asset class is so new, yuge fees can be charged.

Falcon Private Bank in Switzerland received the green light to offer a Bitcoin investment product to its clients. Banks want to be a close second. Falcon is under duress due to a loss of its banking license in Singapore relating to the 1MDB scandal. They have nothing to lose in order to repair their damaged brand. Going full crypto in the hopes of differentiating their product offering is prudent at this stage.

Singapore is the Switzerland of Asia. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will certainly feel pressure to allow one or more private banks to offer similar products. The MAS has a strong government mandate to make Singapore a FinTech hub globally. A properly sanctioned roadmap to offering Bitcoin and other digital currency products will materialise.

Other FinTech and private banking friendly jurisdictions will adopt similar frameworks to encourage domestic private banks to offer similar products. Investment advice surrounding digital currencies presents a juicy fee pool. Regulators cannot ignore the requests of their member banks for a way to skim more money from their clients. The current traditional product offering is boring and yields little.

As more banks and asset managers become comfortable with wallet security, a trickle, then a flood of money will find a home in crypto. The chain-split / hard fork drama is a minor distraction to traders with a time horizon greater than 6 months. Political, regulatory, and media capital invested in promoting a new asset class portends to a bright future.

关于比特币硬分叉的政策

任何人在任何时间都可以制造一个比特币的分叉。由于可能在 2017 年 8 月 1 日 发生用户激活硬分叉 (User Activated Hard Fork, UAHF),我们需要澄清我们对于任何和所有潜在硬分叉的立场。

BitMEX 政策

在 BitMEX 上我们的首要考虑是保护用户的资产安全。为了可以做到这点,我们坚持任何的比特币硬分叉,都需要符合以下条件:

  • 它具有严格的双向重放攻击保护 (two-way replay protection),这应该是默认生效的,可以让其中一条链上的交易在另外的链上无效。
  • 它是一个干净的分叉,并不会被原链”抹去”。
  • 它具有不同的区块头,这样所有钱包 (包括轻量级客户端) 都需要升级以支持新链。
  • 在客户端软件正式发布前至少有 3 个月的公开测试和评估期,并且在软件正式发布后直至硬分叉激活,另外有至少 3 个月的时间。

如果一个硬分叉没有满足以上条件,我们将不会挂牌该币,而且有可能不会允许客户提现该币。明确的说,我们不打算接触或保留这些币。 分发任何及所有的硬分叉币 (包括基于比特币的分配如 Byteball/Lumens)所带来的管理开销是令人望而却步的,BitMEX 也不会监视或维持硬分叉币的余额。

再者,支不支持任何分叉的货币的最终决定权在于 BitMEX。假设我们打算分配分叉币,当我们决定分配分叉币时,尽管我们会在分叉时记录用户的保证金余额,但我们无法保证这是一种安全、理想或实际的方法。如果你是关心这个的话,你可以在任何分叉前提现资金并自行应付链分叉。

今后,如果某个增加区块大小的建议被社区绝大多数所支持,并且处理得当且负责,BitMEX 倾向跟随该链并与我们的用户沟通。

BitMEX 关于 2017 年 8 月 1 日 UAHF 的政策

Bitcoin Cash 是一个用户激活硬分叉 (User Activated Hard Fork, UAHF),旨在提升区块大小。它预定在 2017 年 8 月 1 日被激活。这个转变无法相容于现时的比特币规则,所以可能会创造一个新币,被名为 “Bitcoin Cash”。

我们认为 UAHF 建议并没有包括默认生效的双向重放保护,所以如果 UAHF 发生,BitMEX 有可能无法为客户保护新的 Bitcoin Cash 代币。

因此,BitMEX 将不会允许 Bitcoin Cash 的提现,而 BitMEX 也不会对任何发送到 BitMEX 的 Bitcoin Cash 所负责。如果用户想得到 Bitcoin Cash 币或任何其他硬分叉币,可以在 8 月 1 日之前从 BitMEX 提现比特币。

BitMEX 认为在这个情况下任何及所有的硬分叉均为山寨币。.BXBT 和 .BXBTJPY 指数将保持不变,不会包括 BCC

关于 BIP91, BIP148, 以及潜在链分叉的相关政策

如果 BIP91 (“低门槛隔离见证 MASF”) 未能在 BIP148 UASF (“隔离见证的强制激活”),即北京时间 2017 年 8 月 1 日早上 8 点,之前被激活。比特币网络就有可能分叉。BitMEX 将会采取以下的行动以应付潜在的网络分叉:

钱包

  • 如果 BIP91 锁定并进入一个激活周期 (336 个区块,大约 56 个小时),在潜在激活时间的 4 个小时之前,对于存款 BitMEX 将需要 6 个区块确认,以避免区块链重排时非隔离见证的区块被孤立。当 BIP91 被激活后,如果 BitMEX 的管理团队认为重排几率是低于安全门槛时,这个限制就会随即被解除。
  • 如果 BIP91 没有在北京时间 2017 年 7 月 31 日晚上 9 点前被激活, 存款和提现将会被暂停直至另行通知,以面对可能的链分叉。那天的提现将会被处理。
  • 如果你希望在链分叉的同时进行交易,那么这个日期是你存款的截止日期。
  • 如果链分叉是持续并出现两个或更多版本的比特币,如果可能的话,BitMEX 将会处理主链和副链的提现请求。
    • 为了让任何链上的币都能成功被提现,我们需要建立一个可行的方法以回避重放攻击。
      • 当存在重放攻击 (在一条链上的交易在另一条链上同为可行) 的风险的时候,任何存款或提现都不会被处理。
    • BitMEX 将会在北京时间 2017 年 7 月 31 日晚上 9 点纪录用户的保证金余额 (包括未实现盈亏)。用户在副链上的余额将等于他/她这个时候的余额。

合约结算和标记

  • 如果比特币网络分叉,现在挂牌的期货将以现货交易所挂牌的比特币版本的价格总和作为结算。
    • 我们未必能够预测或计划如何从我们现在的指数交易所里得到可靠的计价数据,或者他们完全不会挂牌副币(们)。当发生网络分叉时, BitMEX 保留把所有比特币衍生品转变为最新成交价格保护标记的权利,直到可以组成出一个稳定的指数。
    • 每条链都会以不同的指数去表达,而其总和将会用作计算标记和结算价格。这些指数将会被分开处理,因为分叉后不是每一个 BitMEX 指数的成份交易所都会挂牌所有的链。
      • 比如,如果 “经典” (在 BIP148 之前) 币是在 Bitstamp 上挂牌而非 GDAX, 那个指数总和的 “经典“ 部分将会 100% 采用 Bitstamp 上的价格。
  • 分叉挂牌的合约将只以一种版本的比特币作结算,这个版本是由 BitMEX 决定的。
  • 分叉后, XBTUSD 永续掉期将会逐步转变标的指数,与期货合约接轨,我们将提供充足的通知。像期货一样,新的指数只会参照一条链。

比特币基差波动率

现货和正向套利是投资者寻求高风险调整后回报的主要策略。 因为比特币可以涨到外太空但只能下降到零,杠杆做多的投机者是有优势的。加上100倍的杠杆,看涨的投机者愿意在短时间内付出很高的年利率,以在短期里持有比特币多头头寸。

现货套利步骤:

  1. 购买一个比特币,价格为 2000 美元
  2. 出售 2500 张 BitMEX 期货合约,例如 XBTM17,价格为 2,500 美元
  3. 等到到期,收取 500 美元的利润

鉴于目前的涨势,BitMEX 比特币/美金 2017 年 6 月 30 日期货合约 XBTM17 在几乎整个合约期间均以溢价(或正基差)交易。 出售期货和购买比特币的投资者基本上可以持有仓位至到期日,获得固定的收益率,这个操作等于借出合成美元给做多的投机者们。

要获得全额溢价,您必须保持仓位直到到期。 然而,虽然套利者通过这一策略赚钱,但看来套利大军的胃口不怎么大,剩下了很多漏网之鱼呢。

上图显示了 XBTM17 的每小时年化溢价。 可见溢价本身非常波动,溢价往往一点一点的涨,然后瀑布式的下来。

对于已经很习惯期现套利的投资者,现在是为您的工具包添加平均回归策略的时候了。 以下是有关数据样本的统计信息:

最低: -27.31%

最高: +122.30%

均值: +17.87%

中位数: +8.95%

标准差: 24.68%

虽然您不能选择低点和高点,但一般来说,您可以在极端行情里进行正向套利交易,并在溢价被磨平时平仓。 这可以让您在合约期内提高收益。

最近 XBTM17 年化溢价在 100 %以上,然后几天却以折价交易。套利者不需要等待 20 天,而可以在24小时内实现整个 100% 的年化回报。

一个简单但有效的策略就是我所说的阶梯式正向套利。 假设季度合约的溢价的正常范围为 0% 至 60%,随着溢价上升,每 10% 的间隔,我将出售 10,000 张 XBTM17 合约,并购买价值 10,000 美元的比特币。 如果溢价达到 60%,我预期的 60,000 美元的收益,在持续到期的假设就是年化 35%。

如果溢价从 60% 降至 0%,我将以 30% 的增幅回购 30,000 张 XBTM17 合约,并出售 30,000 美元的比特币。关键是在任何时候我都有一个积极进取的投资组合,并且我受益于溢价波动。

您可以非常熟练地了解如何选择您的增量和交易规模。您的步骤越明细,您可以从波动溢价中获得更多的利润。

Bitcoin Basis Volatility

Cash and carry arbitrage is a staple strategy for traders seeking high risk adjusted returns. Because Bitcoin can go to infinity but only fall to zero, speculators at the margin are buyers. Add in 100x leverage, and bullish speculators are willing to pay very high per annum interest rates to go long Bitcoin for short periods of time.

Cash and Carry Step by Step:

  1. Buy $1,000 worth of Bitcoin at $2,000
  2. Sell 1,000 BitMEX futures contracts, e.g. XBTM17, at $2,500
  3. Wait until expiry, and collect $500 of profit

Given the current rally, the BitMEX Bitcoin / USD 30 June 2017 futures contract, XBTM17, has traded at a premium (or a positive basis) for almost the entire length of the contract. Traders who sell futures and buy Bitcoin essentially earn a fixed rate of return until expiry to lend long speculators synthetic USD.

To earn the full premium, you must keep the trade on until expiry. However, while arbitrageurs are making good money from this strategy, they are leaving food on the table.

The above chart plots the hourly annualised premium of XBTM17. It is immediately apparent that the premium itself is very volatile. The premium takes the stairs up, and the elevator down.

For traders already comfortable with cash and carry arbitrage, it is time to add a mean reversion strategy to your toolkit. Below are the relevant statistics for the data sample:

Min: -27.31%
Max: +122.30%
Mean: +17.87%
Median: +8.95%
Stdev: 24.68%

While you can’t pick the lows and highs, in general terms you can put on positive carry trades during times of extreme stress and close out when the premium normalises. That allows you to increase your returns during the contract period.

Recently the XBTM17 premium traded over 100% p.a., then a few days later traded at a discount. Instead of waiting another 20 days until expiry, arbitrageurs actively trading the basis could realise the entire 100% return in under 24 hours.

A simple yet effective strategy is what I call the Stair Step Cash and Carry Arbitrage. Assume that a normal range for the premium for a quarterly contract is 0% to 60% p.a. As the premium rises, at each 10% interval I will sell 10,000 XBTM17 contracts and buy $10,000 worth of Bitcoin. If the premium hits 60%, my expected return on $60,000 should I hold until expiry is 35% p.a.

If the premium falls from 60% to 0%, I will buy back 30,000 XBTM17 contracts and sell $30,000 worth of Bitcoin at every 30% increment. The key point is that at all times I have a portfolio with positive carry, and I benefit from volatility in the premium.

You can get very sophisticated about how you choose your increments and sizing of trades. The more granular your steps, the more profit you can harvest from the volatile premium.