I will speak heresy. Marine Le Pineapple Pen will win the 2017 French presidential election.
The first round of voting occurs in April. If no candidate receives a majority of votes, a runoff is held between first and second place.
Le Pen currently leads the pack. She is polling at 25% to 30%. Macron is the first loser; however, bookies expect him to carry the ultimate prize in the runoff.
Just like during the Brexit vote and US presidential election, the establishment cannot fathom a Le Pen victory. They comfortably believe she cannot overcome the racist stigma of her father. Also her plan to immediately remove France from the EU and redenominate all French law bonds into Francs is described as financial suicide by mainstream financial analysts.
Those who vote the “right” way portray those who dare dissent as racists, misogynists, and xenophobes. These pikeys are unanointed in the faith of Whole Foods, vinyasa yoga, and soylent. However the inability to conduct a good faith debate without branding your adversary with one of above mentioned epitaphs means that all polling data is bunk.
The polls said Brexit was doomed and Crooked Hillary would pantsuit walk her way into the oval office. People lied to pollsters to fit in. Le Pen’s support during the final runoff is misunderestimated.
Le Pen is “evil” because she dares to remove continental Europe’s second largest economy from the German economic ghetto that is the EU. Germany has gained the most from the vendor financing model enacted in Europe.
In order to buy German industrial goods, European countries gorged on debt. The TARGET 2 balances, which are the net liabilities between EU central banks, illustrate that Germany is owed nearly EUR 800 billion by the rest of the EU.
The off-again on-again risk of an EU breakup has weakened the Euro significantly. Since 2008, EURUSD has weakened by 30%. A weak EUR helps Germany compete with Japan and South Korea for the export of industrial goods. The economic misery suffered by Greece and other southern European nations actually helps Germany.
Germany even after all the benefits it received at the expense of their European brothers refuses to run a looser monetary policy to help the rest of Europe recover. Germany is not without its problems. Don’t forget about Deutsche Bank (DB). The bank is living on borrowed time. Should France pull out of the EU. DB will be toast. Any European bank that borrowed in EUR but holds EUR denominated local law bonds as assets is at risk of insolvency. These bonds will be redenominated into weaker domestic currencies during an EU breakup.
To save the banks, Der Spiegel and similar publications will work overtime to scare the plebes out of their desire to regain competitiveness. However in 2017, there are examples around of globe of how the establishment was neutered. The presidential race is Le Pen’s to lose.
Bitcoin devours market instability and produces stellar returns. 2017 will be no different. Traders globally sense a paradigm shift. That is one reason why the PBOC’s repeated attempts to crush the price are met with fierce resistance by Bitcoin bulls.
The first round of voting will be held on April 23rd. If needed, the runoff will be held on May 7th. The markets still don’t believe in Le Pineapple Pen. It is the perfect time to position one’s crypto portfolio to benefit from an “unlikely” victory.
From now until the COIN ETF decision on March 11th, there will be various opportunities to BTFD. The PBOC isn’t done yet. While the marginal effectiveness of their actions is waning, when they act it is a great opportunity to increase your exposure. The price will fall if the ETF is not approved. This might be the last best chance to acquire cheap Bitcoin before the French fireworks. This time, France might not raise the white flag.