BFX Valuation: Discounted Cash Flows

Here’s one attempt at a valuation: let’s look at Discounted Cash Flows, or DCF.

BFX does not pay a dividend, nor does it have a maturity date. Bitfinex did not opine as to what percentage of revenue or profit would be earmarked towards paying BFX token holders.

A DCF analysis consists of estimating future cash flows, then discounting them to the present. Dividing 0 by infinity doesn’t work.

The DCF analysis yields a value of $0. Using these assumptions, shorting BFX tokens is attractive.

BitMEX listed the only Bitcoin denominated derivative on the BFX/USD exchange rate. The contract pays 0.1 XBT at the Token’s potential maximum value of $1.

Because the BFX Future Contract is a derivative, traders do not need to borrow BFX to go short. Traders need only sell BFX Futures Contracts to obtain a short BFX/USD exposure.

If you believe it is not possible or in Bitfinex’s interest to pay out BFX Tokens, shorting here is very attractive.