The world seems like a very different place since the eve of the last Bitcoin halving in June 2016 – not least as the price of a coin was around $650 back then. And despite Bitcoin’s relative infancy, as in life, so much has changed yet so much remains the same. Just like ahead of the halvings in 2012 and 2016, we’re seeing the same questions. Will miners exit? Will the hashrate drop? Will confidence decline? Will there be a price correction? And today, all are with the added and swirling complexity of COVID-19.
Of everyone, we do know that Bitcoin miners will be the most affected. BitMEX Research covered this upcoming event extensively in a recent blog on mining incentives, and the likely impact the halving would have on these market participants.
The research concludes by saying the halving might cause the network hashrate to decline by around 30% to 35% – assuming there is no significant Bitcoin price change. Such a decline in hashrate will result in temporarily increased transaction confirmation times – both for deposits and withdrawals. However, the research also concluded that these wait times should revert back to an average of 10 minutes per confirmation, within a few weeks of the halving.
The BitMEX wallet system is designed to set the minimum Bitcoin Network fee dynamically based on blockchain load and can be viewed on our Withdrawal Page. An appropriate fee is paid on any user’s withdrawal transaction to ensure that it is confirmed in a reasonable amount of time.
Given the likely hashrate decline post halving, at least for the first few weeks, users may see some delays to transaction times, and a subsequent increase in network fees for withdrawals.
As always, please contact Support via our contact form if you have any questions.