Perpetual swaps (perps) have become increasingly important for price discovery for newly launched altcoins in the current market cycle. A common belief among traders is that newly-listed perpetual swap contracts often see their price peak on the first day of listing.
The reasoning behind this assumption is compelling – initial token offerings frequently launch at highly inflated valuations, and the introduction of perp markets allows traders to short these assets while giving early venture capital investors a mechanism to hedge their positions.
But is this conventional wisdom supported by data?
In this report, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of all perpetual swap listings across major centralised exchanges—BitMEX, Binance, Bybit, and OKX—from the beginning of 2025 till 18 March 2025.
By examining price movements and exchange-specific patterns, this piece aims to provide traders with actionable insights into the behaviour of newly-listed perpetual swaps.
TL;DR
- BitMEX shows superior listing selection: BitMEX has more listings that appreciate after day 1 (58.33% of listings), with those ‘winners’ showing substantially higher returns – average gain (62.55%), median gain (23.21%), and maximum gain (296.44%) among all exchanges analysed.
- First-day price action varies dramatically by exchange: Only 41.7% of perp listings on BitMEX reached their all-time high (ATH) on the first day of trading (indicating more sustainable upward momentum). This is a stark contrast to the 70.83% on OKX and 50% on Binance that reached their ATH on the first day.
- Most new listings top in 1 week: For tokens that appreciate post-listing day, most reach their maximum price within the first week (BitMEX: median 6 days).
When Do New Listings Reach All-Time Highs? The First Day Peak Theory
As mentioned, the majority of traders believe that newly-listed perpetual swap contracts reach their all-time high on the first day of listing. Is this true across major centralised exchanges?
The First-Day Peak Theory: Variation By Exchange
The data demonstrates striking differences between exchanges regarding whether tokens reach their all-time high (ATH) on the first day of trading:
- OKX: 70.83% of tokens reached their ATH on the first day of listing, confirming the first day peak theory
- Binance: 50.00% of tokens reached their ATH on the first day, showing a perfect split
- BitMEX: 41.67% of tokens reached their ATH on the first day, contradicting conventional wisdom
- Bybit: 40.82% of tokens reached their ATH on the first day, also contradicting the first day peak theory
OKX strongly conforms to the “first day peak” theory, with over 70% of its listings having reached their all-time high on day 1. Binance shows a split, while BitMEX and Bybit listings contradict the conventional wisdom entirely—the majority of their listings still had positive price action after the first day.
This difference suggests that exchange-specific factors significantly influence post-listing performance. OKX appears to generate the most initial excitement or potentially attract more short-sellers, while BitMEX and Bybit’s listings demonstrate more sustainable upward momentum.
Magnitude and Timing Patterns of New Perp Listings
Magnitude of Gains
Different centralised exchanges show stark differences in the magnitude of price appreciation for tokens that do gain value after listing:
- BitMEX demonstrated the highest average gain from initial to maximum price at an extraordinary 62.55%
- OKX showed the second highest average gain at 31.31%
- Binance followed with an average gain of 25.10%
- Bybit had the lowest average gain at 17.02%.
The median gains of new perp listings tell an even more compelling story:
- BitMEX: 23.21% (highest median gain by a substantial margin)
- Bybit: 4.37%
- Binance: 1.02%
- OKX: 0.00% (indicating that over half the coins never exceeded their initial price)
While OKX has relatively few “winners”, those that do succeed tend to outperform significantly.
BitMEX, on the other hand, not only has a high percentage of coins that appreciate after the first day, but those coins also show remarkably strong and consistent gains.
Timing Patterns: Most Coins Top in 1 Week
When tokens do appreciate after listing, how long does it take them to reach their maximum price?
- Binance: Average 5.00 days, median 0.50 days
- OKX: Average 4.67 days, median 0.00 days
- Bybit: Average 5.24 days, median 1.00 days
- BitMEX: Average 7.14 days, median 6.00 days
The data reveals a heavily front-loaded distribution across all exchanges—the vast majority of tokens reach their all-time high within the first week of trading. While BitMEX listings may take slightly longer to reach their maximum price, the substantially higher returns often justify the longer holding period.
BitMEX: A Standout Exchange for New Listings
BitMEX has emerged as a standout exchange in our analysis, demonstrating several key strengths that differentiate it from competitors:
Superior Price Appreciation
BitMEX listings show the strongest post-listing price performance among all exchanges analysed:
- Highest average gain: 62.55% (double the next highest exchange)
- Highest median gain: 23.21% (5x higher than the next best exchange)
- Highest maximum gain: 296.44% (e.g. PI token)
This consistent outperformance suggests that BitMEX’s selection process and market structure may be particularly conducive to sustained price appreciation.
Notable Top Performers on BitMEX
Several coins listed on BitMEX achieved exceptional gains:
- PI: 296.44% gain in 6 days
- IP: 281.60% gain in 14 days
- TRUMPOFFICIAL: 135.52% gain in 2 days
- AIXBT: 104.53% gain in 2 days
- JAILSTOOL: 95.03% gain in 2 days
The diversity of these high-performing assets across different sectors (technology, politics, memecoins) demonstrates BitMEX’s ability to identify promising projects across various categories.
Post-Listing Price Dynamics
While 41.67% of BitMEX listings peaked on their first day, 58.33% continued to appreciate afterward. This balance offers opportunities for 2 groups:
- Traders who wish to capture the initial listing excitement
- Investors who prefer to observe initial market behaviour before entering
The slightly longer average time to peak price (7.14 days) compared to other exchanges suggests a more measured price discovery process that may result in more sustainable gains.
Which Exchange Chose Better Listing Times?
New token listings are often conducted on different timelines depending on the exchange. During the period of analysis, several tokens were listed across exchanges at different times, allowing for direct comparison:
This direct comparison shows that BitMEX frequently outperforms other exchanges for the same assets, particularly for tokens like TRUMP and BERA where the performance differential is substantial. This suggests that BitMEX’s market structure and liquidity dynamics may offer advantages for certain types of assets.
The Special Cases: Exchange-Exclusive Listings
For tokens that get exclusively listed on a single exchange (referred to as exchange-exclusive listings*), the price performance post-listing day seems to differ depending on the exchange.
*Please note that exchange-exclusive listings in our analysis have also included the same coins that are listed on different dates.
The data shows that OKX’s exclusive listings behave differently compared to the exchange’s overall listings. While 70.83% of all OKX listings reach their all-time high (ATH) on day 1, only 50% of its exclusive listings do. This suggests that OKX’s exchange-exclusive tokens may have better post-listing appreciation potential.
BitMEX has a substantial number of exclusive listings (total of 11 within the analysis period), with performance characteristics that mirror its overall listing profile. This suggests consistency in BitMEX’s listing quality regardless of whether the asset is exclusive to its platform.
The standout performer among exclusive listings on BitMEX was PI (Pi Network), which achieved an exceptional 296.44% gain in just 6 days, outperforming even the impressive 212.73% gain of PI-USDT-SWAP on OKX.
Strategic Implications for Traders
Based on this comprehensive analysis, several exchange-specific trading strategies emerge:
Exchange-Specific Trading Strategies
- BitMEX: With 58.33% of listings appreciating after the first day, combined with the highest average and median gains, a measured approach of holding for approximately one week may be optimal
- OKX: Consider selling most listings on day 1, but watch out for exceptionally negative funding rates as potential indicators of tokens that might buck the trend
- Bybit: A majority of listings appreciate after day 1, suggesting that a potential “hold for a week” strategy may be beneficial
- Binance: With its even split, it is recommended to explore other indicators beyond the exchange itself to inform trading decisions
Timing Considerations
For those looking to trade the post-listing appreciation:
- The optimal holding period for most appreciating coins is 1-7 days.
- BitMEX listings may benefit from a slightly longer holding period (median 6 days to reach maximum price)
- Long-term holds (beyond two weeks) rarely capture additional upside.
- The probability of capturing the maximum price decreases dramatically after the first week.
The Bottom Line
This analysis reveals that while approximately half of newly listed coins reach their all-time high (ATH) price on the first day of listing across exchanges, there are significant exchange-specific variations that traders can leverage.
BitMEX emerges as a standout exchange for new coin listings, offering the highest average and median price gains among the exchanges analysed. Its balanced ratio of first-day peaks versus continued appreciation provides opportunities for different trading strategies, while its consistently strong performance across various asset types demonstrates robust market mechanisms.
For traders looking to maximise returns on newly listed cryptocurrencies, BitMEX represents a compelling option with higher potential rewards compared to Binance, OKX, and Bybit. The exchange’s ability to generate superior returns for new token listings across various metrics suggests it warrants increased attention from traders interested in new cryptocurrency listings.
The data confirms that the conventional first-day peak theory isn’t universally applicable across all exchanges. While OKX strongly conforms to this pattern, Binance shows an even split, and both BitMEX and Bybit contradict it (a majority of their listings continue to appreciate after the first day).
For traders, these findings highlight the importance of considering not just the asset being listed, but also the specific exchange where trading occurs and the initial market conditions. By incorporating these factors into their analysis, traders can develop more sophisticated strategies for approaching new cryptocurrency listings in this evolving market.
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