Crypto Trader Digest – Apr 11

Tech In Asia – Singapore 2016

For those of you in Singapore, BitMEX will be pitching and has a booth at the Tech In Asia Singapore conference on April 12-13. Please stop by our booth and say hello.

If you would like to hear our pitch, please attend one of the following:

April 12th: FinTech Stage, 13:00 – 14:30

April 13th: Main Stage, 15:00 – 16:30

The Summer Of Love: European 2016 Edition

In case you didn’t hear, the Dutch people rejected an EU – Ukraine treaty that called for closer ties. Yet, even in the face of popular disdain for disastrous policies of the EU, their vote will be largely ignored. EU President Jean-Claude Juncker said “The Commission remains strongly committed to the development of its relations with Ukraine.” [Reuters] Much like the Greeks, the popular will is discarded if the outcome is not desirable to those in charge.

The Greeks are back to their naughty ways. The turncoat PM Alexis Tsipras refuses to endorse the tax hikes and pension cuts that the Troika (ECB, IMF, and World Bank) demanded in return for the next tranche of their bailout funds. Below is a schedule of upcoming Greek payments this summer:

Barclays has begun the Grexit scaremongering. They warn that a 2016 Grexit is back on the table. The recent IMF leak didn’t do European stability any favours either.

The playbook by now is very established. The Greeks rattle the cage and say they can stand no more. The ECB and Bundasbank stand firm that “austerity” must be enacted. Each side bickers, the financial markets enter risk-off to sufficiently scare the Greeks into line, then the Greeks begrudgingly accept more “austerity”.

A new “programme” is put forward where the Greeks promise with all their heart to inflict more misery upon their people so that the Troika can give money to Greece, which Greece then hands back to the Troika as interest payments. The Troika gets to keep holding Greek debt at par, and the Greeks have the pleasure of remaining in the EU with all its benefits.

What of Bitcoin?

Bitcoin will rally as the markets enter the risk-off “Oh My God! The EU is over” phase. I can just hear the benevolent billionaire George Soros chastising the Greek people for refusing to agree to his EU-centric world view. If 2016 follows 2015’s chain of events, once the Greeks cave again, Bitcoin will crash back to where it started.

2016 is interesting – a rich EU member put an EU treaty to a vote, and the result was No. The odds of Brexit are still quite low at 33%.

As we approach June, many things may change. Don’t forget the ongoing migrant crisis, an attempt to find more suckers to pay into underfunded pensions for a bunch of old Europeans. Get your Depends ready, because you will certainly be babysitting Bitcoin this summer.

USDJPY: I Choose Violence

If you haven’t seen the trailers for season 6 of Game of Thrones, take a few minutes to watch them. The manic gyrations of USDJPY and the pain inflicted upon traders, reminded me of Cersei’s forethcoming battle against the High Septon.

Koruda-san was overjoyed that Grandma Yellen decided to begin raising rates. The Yen would be weaker, and it wouldn’t require more bullets from the BOJ. Unfortunately, the Fed has begun to backtrack their commitment to raise rates further. Currently, many traders believe a dovish Fed is back, and rates will be back at 0% or even negative by year-end.

As a result, the Yen strengthened violently, and the Nikkei is crashing. Adding to the BOJ’s troubles is a populace who in the face of NIRP is hoarding cash, not spending it. More 10,000 Yen notes are being produced to satisfy the demand for cash [Japan Times]. Abe-san and Koruda-san will not go quietly. Japan is walking back its commitment not to engage in competitive devaluations [Zerohedge]. Verbal central bank jawboning is more effective than actually entering the market.

Ever since the BOJ decided to go negative, they are the laughing stock of the FX community.

Instead of a weaker JPY, the BOJ’s actions sparked a surge in the Yen and the amount of cash hoarded by its vassals. When the BOJ finally intervenes to trash the Yen, the success of their efforts will be short lived.

As dejected traders watch carry trades explode in their faces (traders borrow Yen cheap as funding for speculative trades in other asset classes), they will have to reduce their exposure to risky assets or face the wrath of margin calls. Evidence of this is the record number of foreigners shedding Japanese equities. According to Bloomberg, foreign investors have sold $46 billion worth of Japanese equities.

Japan has spent the last almost three decades fighting deflation. They will go where no nation has gone before. They are currently experimenting with fingerprint enabled cash transactions. If they can effectively ban cash, then NIRP can work its inflationary magic. Combine that with basic income, or helicopter money, and you have a recipe for toilet paper Yen.

Japan’s feared housewife FX punters, the Mrs. Watanabe’s, won’t accept this theft without a fight.

First the large cash safes will disappear from the market. Then they will begin exchanging their domestic toilet paper for any other currency, commodity, or real asset they can electronically. Bitcoin and digital currencies will become very attractive. Much like XBTCNY, XBTJPY is a much watch pair. The Japanese are at the forefront in implementing destructive and ineffective monetary policies. The BOJ’s desperation is palpable as they enter their fourth decade fighting the deflationary boogieman.

Want to trade the Yen? The BitMEX Bitcoin / Yen Futures contract, XBJ24H, will soon be live. Using XBJ24H, traders will be able to express a pure view on Japan’s monetary chicanery.

Ether: Bitcoin 2013 Redux

From the beginning of 2016, to it’s peak at 0.0372 ETH/XBT, Ether went up over 1,700%.

Bitcoin, from the start of 2013 to its first peak of $250 in April 2013, was up over 1,900%. Ether dropped over 52% its the all-time-high (ATH) to a low of 0.0176 ETH/XBT last night. Much like it, Bitcoin, after peaking in April 2013, dropped by 80%.

We all know how the story of Bitcoin in 2013 ended. There will be many traders attempting to project a similar movement onto Ether. An 80% retracement from the all-time high necessitates a bottom at 0.00744. Given the Ethereum project has much more positive press and institutional involvement at this stage than Bitcoin had in early 2013, I don’t expect a collapse to those levels.

Do traders believe a repeat of Bitcoin’s 2013 breakout will occur with Ether in 2016? The Bitcoin halving this July will play a crucial role in determining Ether’s price trajectory. If the Bitcoin price crumbles due to issues arising from the halving, you can expect Ether to receive a massive boost. However, a resurrected Bitcoin will put the Ether party on hold for a bit longer.

Never underestimate greed and FOMO. Many $1,000 Bitcoin bag holders desire redemption. Getting in “early” on an Ether 2016 mega bubble is on their minds. Their itchy trigger fingers might just make it happen.

Risk Disclaimer

BitMEX is not a licensed financial advisor. The information presented in this newsletter is an opinion, and is not purported to be fact. Bitcoin is a volatile instrument and can move quickly in any direction. BitMEX is not responsible for any trading loss incurred by following this advice.

币界新闻择要 – 四月四日

BitMEX改用 Kaiko指标作为交割价格基准

上年我们的交割价格指标从Bitfinex改成了 Tradeblock XBX指标。Tradeblock的XBX指标提供了更大的交割指标稳定性。不过不少做市商反映他们希望有一个更简单的指标来方便对冲,为了提升我们交易所的流动性,从4月29日起,的比特币期货合约将会改成以Kaiko指标交割

改变的原因

不少做市商指出因为XBX交割指标的权重会随着交易所的交易量等而改变,他们难以作出肯定的对冲。基于做市商为我们交易所流动性的重要来源,我们决定为了BitMEX继续能够提供深度和低点差,我们决定将指标改成Kaiko指标

Kaiko指标

BitMEX 和 Kaiko 为了建立公平的指标密切合作,指标将会从原本的5家改为3家,其中包括 Bitfinex Bitstamp OKCOIN USD。

权重将会根据每个日历月的交易量而调整,而交易所将不会有超过50%的权重。

交易所下线

交易所下线的情况下,价格将会定为我们最后接收的价格,当API重新上线,价格将会重新更新。在交易所下线的时候,交易所的权重将不会受到影响

交易所价格差距

权重将不会因为交易所价格差距扩大而改变

更多资讯

更多关于Kaiko指标的资讯,请参考 Kaiko.

再次陷入危机的希腊

 

希腊退欧还没有过了一年。希腊人仍然天真地相信他们的立场有能力改变国家的路向。一份被泄露的谈话暴露了一个事实,跨国组织(如国际货币基金组织)才是最终决定人。维基解密发布了国际货币基金组织(IMF)的两个官员在谈论希腊信贷危机事件容许违约事件发生的主张。
希腊信贷违约事件对于许多欧洲银行和政府都不是一个好事。信贷时间是最“礼貌‘的用字,然而许多官员也对于国际货币基金组织将倡导这样的事情感到愤怒。而更讽刺的是如果希腊发生债务违约事件,IMF持有的部分欧洲债卷将会一同被违约事件所影响。

这个资料泄漏真的不能在一个更坏的时间出现的时间。距离英国举行的退欧公投剩下只有三个月了。难道人们真的要国家主权的一部分交给部分成员暗中密谋密谋灭国的组织?

提供个希腊的支援不会在 Troika 满意希腊的紧缩措施前出现。 经过12个月辛苦的资本管制之后,也许2016年就是希腊人终于忍不住的时候了。他们在去年夏天还没有就范,但是如果更多类似这样的对话出现的话,恐怕希腊人民的临界点就会被触发了。

英國退歐和希臘退歐会不会发生仍然是未知之数,然而我能够肯定欧盟能够继续以现在形式运行并非必然的事。不确定性会导致波动上升,其中当然也包括数字货币,上年的退欧导致了比特币上升超过30%,然后在事件得到解决的时候跌回去,2016年可能就是希腊觉醒的一年,如果他们真的觉醒了,你最好就拿着比特币了

以太是时候上车了吗?

虽然以太币的上涨已经放缓,但是,以太币已经开始吸引更多人的目光,我上个礼拜提到连纽约时报也报道以太币为新一代的电子货币。这只是一个开始。

首先,CNBC基本上引用了纽时的文章报道了一次,并提到了Google Venture曾经为这个项目的价值标了5亿美元的实质,当时应该不少人会质疑这个数值,不过现在他们都应该为这个重新报价。我们能够肯定的是圈内不少人着迷于块练科技多余比特币本身,而以太币就是能够切合这群投资者需求的认识。

微软也宣布提供Azure服务作为R3的合作伙伴,这对于以太币来说是一个利好。

这么多的资料能够总括什么?我个人认为全都是对于Ether是利好的。“坏新闻”的概念我不太认为是事实,况且以太币全都是利好的新闻。如果从技术层面来看,近期的交易量下跌而且波动也随之下跌,过去类似的情况跟随着的就是一轮大波动。那么我们是不是应该期待即将降临的暴涨呢。我建议设立一个严格的下破止损做多,BitMEX提供25倍杠杆的高流动性以太币期货,如果你是大户的话,我们甚至可以帮你跟做市上拉个关系挂个单,有需要的尽管在聊天室找我们团队吧!

Crypto Trader Digest – Apr 4

The BitMEX Kaiko Index

Last year we moved from Bitfinex to the TradeBlock XBX Index as the underlying of our Bitcoin / USD futures contracts. The TradeBlock XBX Index was a great improvement over using a singular exchange for settlement. However, many large market makers and arbitrageurs wanted a simpler index. In order to increase liquidity, effective Friday April 29 12:01 UTC the underlying for any Bitcoin / USD futures contract will be the Kaiko BitMEX Index.

Why The Change

Many market makers and arbitrageurs complained that it was impossible to forecast the weights of the exchanges that comprised the TradeBlock XBX Index. Weightings constantly changed due to liquidity and price deviations of the member exchanges.

It is impossible to accurately match the settlement price when the weights cannot be known for certain. As a result, many market makers and arbitrageurs provide less liquidity to BitMEX than they would if the weights were known in advance. BitMEX is committed to providing the tightest spreads for all traders, and we had to find a solution to this problem.

The Kaiko BitMEX Index

BitMEX and Kaiko worked closely together to construct an index that would be fair, transparent, and easy to replicate.

Instead of five member exchanges, there will now be three (Bitfinex, Bitstamp, and OKCoin USD).

Weights will be fixed throughout the calendar month based on the past share of 30 day volume. No exchange may have a weight above 50%.

Exchange API Outages

It is not uncommon for Bitcoin exchanges to experience periods where their API is unresponsive. If an exchange’s API is down, its price will be the last price broadcast. Once the API is live again, the price will update as per normal. Exchanges will not be down-weighted during an API outage.

Exchange Price Divergence

An exchange’s weight will not be altered if its price differs greatly from the other member exchanges.

More Information

For information about the index and about receiving market data, please visit Kaiko.

The Greeks On Their Knees Again

Less than a year has elapsed since the Greeks were humiliated into taking further sustenance from their European masters. The Greeks still naively believe they have a voice in the future of their country. A leaked conversation laid bare the fact that supranational organisations such as the IMF hold all the cards. Wikileaks published a conversation between two IMF staffers advocating a credit event in Greece to force further haircuts on their debt burden.

While Greece desperately needs a reduction in their tribute to Frau Merkel, a Greek credit event won’t be a welcome development for many European banks and governments. A credit event is a polite word for default, and many are outraged that the IMF would advocate such a thing. It is even more ironic since said credit event would surely imply a haircut on the Greek debt the IMF currently holds and counts as performing loan.

This leak couldn’t have come at a worse time for the European project. The upcoming EU membership referendum in Britain is only three months away. Do the people really want to hand over part of their national sovereignty to organisations that covertly plot the demise of certain member states?

The next tranche of sustenance for Greece will not be released until the Troika is satisfied with Greece’s austerity measures. After twelve months of capital controls and suffering, maybe 2016 is the year the Greeks finally flip the bird to the EU and leave. They were sufficiently scared into submission last summer, but if more conversations like the one leaked from the IMF become known, the Greek people might finally reach the breaking point.

Brexit or Grexit may or may not happen this summer. However I am certain that it is not a foregone conclusion that the EU will exist in it’s current form. This uncertainty will cause volatility to increase across all asset classes including digital currencies. The Grexit scare last summer resulted in an over 30% price spike in Bitcoin, followed by a nasty crash once the Greeks caved. 2016 could finally be the year when Greeks rediscover their backbone, and if they do you better own some Bitcoin.

Wikileaks Reveals IMF Plan To “Cause A Credit Event In Greece And Destabilize Europe”

Get Aboard That ETH Train!

Even though the price appreciation of ETH/BTC has slowed down significantly, Ethereum is getting a lot of notice in the public eye and becoming a serious contender to Bitcoin. I spoke at lengths last week about the New York Times praising Ether as the next digital currency to watch, however since then there has been more interest.

To start, CNBC essentially quoted the NYT article after it came out and has also recently released another article about the valuation of Ether, noting that back in 2014 it was privately valued at around US$500m with Google Ventures interested. No doubt there would have been multiple skeptics of that number back two years ago, however now I am sure those same people are probably thinking that this is a low number for the project. It is clear that a number of industry players are more interested in blockchain technology than Bitcoin, and this is something Ethereum can offer – in fact the CFTC commissioner spoke at lengths about blockchain technology (digital ledger technology specifically), and not once throughout his whole speech did he mention Bitcoin.

Microsoft recently announced that it has signed up to R3, providing Azure’s online services to the partnership. This could be a good sign for Ether, if not price wise initially, but for publicity since Azure recently offered the Ethereum Blockchain as a Service (E BaaS) to deliver enterprise business solutions.

So what does this all mean for the price? I personally think it is a bullish thing – there’s no such thing as bad publicity and Ether is getting nothing but good publicity. Looking at the price on a technical level, price action has been flat recently with volumes dropping. In the past, the price spiked up by about by about 100% (early Feb to early March) after a similar quiet period. Are we overdue for another move up? Technical conditions and this publicity make an up move more likely than a down one. Set tight stops on the downside, and take advantage of this sideways price action to build your position. At BitMEX we offer 25x leverage on ETH with great volumes, also don’t forget that if you ever want to request a quote for a certain size then hit us up on the chat and we will reach out to the market makers!

币界新闻择要 – 三月二十八日

下一个轮到… 日元?

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日本是新派货币政策的实验白老鼠,除了毛片之外,未来增长最多的应该就是他们的货币,日本最终走到了“送钱”的阶段了。

“派钱政策”,或者被称为“基本收入”,是一个透过派钱给市民来增加他们花费意欲的方法。日本将会向低收入青年派发“日常用品抵消卷”

派钱政策其实不是什么新鲜事,一些欧洲国家已经试过这个印钞的试验。不同的是,日本拥有世界上最大的政府债务/GDP的百分比。日本央行尝试复制其它央行的政策来救这个垂死的经济和国家。

日本也生产一些世界上最美味的农产品(只要它不是从福岛生产的),但进口几乎所有的能源需求。黑田的大量印钞的政策破坏了日元,令普通日本国民生活开支节节上升。首先得到支助的将是年轻人,然而不久之后就需要扩张支助到所有国民。唯一的结果将是一个更不值钱的日元,和大幅的能源/食品价格上涨。尽管日本有一个健康的农业部门,农民还需要消耗进口能源来制作和运输他们的农作物。

日本的家庭主妇出名对于外汇冒险,如果他们知道比特币或其他电子货币,后果可想而知。虽然美元仍然是最受欢迎的货币,但是美元对比黄金等的价值也可能因为美国进入负利率的货币政策而面临巨大压力。

我知道你们大多都不是日本人,但是这不代表BitMEX没有提供给你看空日本而赚钱的机会。我们即将挂牌 比特币/日元 日交割合约 XBJ24H,而如果你拥有 Quoine 交易所的账户,你更加可以直接从Quoine交易这张合约,当然,你也能够直接在BitMEX投资这个合约。

Japan Goes Full Krugman: Plans Un-Depositable, Non-Cash “Gift-Certificate” Money Drop To Young People

英国退欧?

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退欧的几率是节节攀升,在博彩平台赔率代表的平均发生几率为35%。一些非官方的民调更显示有40%以上的“退出”票。公投将于6月23日举行。退欧将是欧盟灾难性的事件。

欧猪四国全部都有巨额的债务问题,他们要么继续承受高失业率,或进行大规模的贬值,并接受他们的老货币。这些都是重获竞争力的唯一选择。经过7年的“紧缩”政策,他们已经害怕投票退欧的后果。

如果几率继续上升,比特币的价格和波动有望继续上升。我们回顾一下上年希腊退欧的时分,比特币的波动也十分高。英国退欧还有一点时间,不过到那个时候,对于喜欢波动的投资者绝对是一个绝佳时机!

BitMEX的9月交割期货会是一个好的工具,如果退欧真的发生了,欧元区会发生大乱,而希腊又会再一次缺钱。最后这些恐慌的热钱就会流入避险资金例如黄金或比特币。这也就是其中一个推高期货溢价的原因

现在XBTU16年华溢价62%,历史上,BitMEX的3月及6月合约曾经踏足分别40%和100%年化利率之间,如果退欧真的将会发生,XBTU16有可能会再次为年化溢价创下新高。

Brexit Referendum Betting Odds

刷卡的艺术:套利资本管制的新方法

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中国资金逃离的现象是其中一个导致全球各地资产价格商战的原因。最热门的资产就是是外国房地产。最近的一项统计指出,中国买家占所有在温哥华住宅的三分之一。

大规模的资本外逃是中国的一个大问题。外汇储备正在急速下降,而人民银行将需要所有它才能够继续支持由银行部门持有的不良贷款。为了遏止资金外流,,中国引入了各种措施。

以前常见的方法是使用中国银联卡在香港买的保险。很多的中国人到香港保诚和AIA外大排长龙。健康和旅行保险十分受欢迎,因为他们可以合法地购买超过$ 50,000(即每年法律上的外汇限制)。

要停止不良行为,现在银联设立了每笔海外交易$ 5,000的限制。加入你有一百万美元保险,但有一个交易限额的话,理所当然的事就是慢慢刷,五千五千的刷够100万。

庞博对此有更详细的访问:

 

一家在香港的中国河南券商保险公司,提供去香港旅程,包括免费机票和住宿,让在中国大陆地区的客户购买的保险产品。价值50多万元($ 77,000美金)的合约就附送头等舱机票加两晚的五星级酒店。这样的买家将需要刷至少15次卡。

“我们会引导他们完成整个过程,我们已经告诉他们要带一个以上的信用卡,因为如果某一张刷不到的话,他们也能够刷另一张试试。 “

某个客户就在政策实施后几天签了一张280万港币的保单,最后他比原先要多刷200多次卡,而且大概花了2日的时间。

年初中国金管暂停了公布某些宏观经济数字,令分析员都不能够准确地预测经济走向,很多分析员认为中国外汇储备现在以每月1000亿的速度下降,有些更指出外汇储备曾经下破27000亿。这些数字指出了中国现在的金融已经踏入危险的地区,以现在的速度来看,中国在夏天的时分就会开始出现资金的短缺。

当政府停止生产某些经济数据,他们通常有一些东西要隐藏。无论是刷银联卡200次买巨的保单,伪造进口发票,或以不合理价格购买外国资产,中国的个人和企业正在以前所未见的速度丢弃人民币。

image

中国A50自2月已经上升了差不多10%,BitMEX的中国A50期货合约让投资者以高达25倍杠杆做多做空A50指数,距离中国经济问题浮现还有一点距离。如果希望乘胜追击,可以做多A50;看空的则可以做空这张合约。

币界新闻择要 – 三月二十一日

存户们!最奇怪的事买没有发生

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几个月前欧洲央行宣布了500欧罗的纸币将不会继续流通。目标可能就是令纸币在欧元区内消失,使实行负利率变得可行。500欧罗占了欧元区已发行货币的很大份额,而政治家只需要随便弄个“打击恐怖分子”、或者是“反洗钱”那些的指控,就能完全毁灭纸币。

回到希腊的情况,我们知道使用小额纸币来作为存款的方法不是十分可行,而且也变得复杂。聪明的希腊存户将他们的流动资金换成大额的500欧罗,存钱省力省位置还不用承受负利息的威胁….直到德拉吉将最奇怪的一幕演出,把500欧罗的纸币变成非流通货币。

希腊的存户又一次回到银行,把他们自以为傲的500欧罗交给银行换成其他面额的欧罗纸币。银行跟存户一样也害怕着负利率,他们也不希望一堆现钞被欧洲央行变为受负利率威胁的电子货币。所以现在在希腊的银行开始对把500欧罗现钞兑换成较少面额钞票的存户收取1.5%服务费。

现在就轮到100欧罗了,Larry Summers表示希望欧央也同时将它非流通化,不少存户都拥有100欧罗。当美国也开始进入负利率的时候,100欧罗也是放到砧板上的时候了。

即使你真的这么有远见把电子货币换成现钞,政府只会把你的现钞非合法化,然后你又要去银行办你的兑钞手续了。1000万的100欧罗钞票重量大概是100公斤,容量大概是103公升。试想象把他们换成20欧罗钞票….. 祝你好“运”吧,呵呵…..

现在想一想,黄金可能成为另一好选择,不过也不是完全免疫。试想象当大家把银行里面的电子货币换成黄金,那么现在你就要把你笨重的贵金属存好。未来的保险库需求可能会越来越高,最后也跟承受负利率一样。

数字货币是唯一一个廉价的财富保存方法,当负利率越来越高,传统资金保存的方法就会随着需求上升越来越高昂。希腊的例子正好说明了即使把现金放在床底也不是完全免疫。

参考资料:

Greek Banks Admit To Charging Customers To Exchange Big Bills For Smaller Ones

How Much Does A Million Dollars Weigh

比特币减半交易策略

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比特币挖矿利润减半将会在这个7月发生,很多人都认同那个时候比特币的价格波动将会上升。比特币作为一个60亿市值的货币,它不再是只是科技控玩的东西,认真的投资者能够在这个投资工具下注上百万看好他的发展。

波动是投资者最好的朋友,BitMEX提供多种方法让投资者看多看空,配上比特币现货,6/9月的期货合约能够让投资者从他们的预测获利。以下有几个建议,投资者可以对应观点尝试一下交易策略。

传言出现时买进,传言证实后卖出(Buy The Rumour, Sell The Fact)

市场通常会对市场事件过度反应。通常投资者的最佳平仓点是预期的事件发生之前。由于炒作和恐惧的氛围围绕着比特币减半的时间,一种策略是现在做多波动并在减半前平仓。通过出售六月(XBTM16)和购买九月(XBT U16)期货,投资者有一个净波动的仓位,并不受比特币价格影响盈亏。
目前,六月对比九月的年利率差距是50%。对于觉得这个年利率差距太低的投资者,他们应该卖六月并买九月期货。如果减半的氛围会让比特币波动上升,仓位将出现净盈利。

售出6月XBTM16, 买入9月XBTU16

白菜价比特币

对于那些相信减半将导致比特币的价格飙升的投资者,购买九月期货合约是合适的。通过增加杠杆和双币种影响,九月合约的长期持有者将获利丰厚。然而,开仓的成本,这是指9月合约对比现货的溢价目前是年化52%。所以必须考虑这个投资的成本。

买入9月XBTU16

减半之后的波动

也许你不知道价格是否会飙升或暴跌,但你知道,一些大的波动会在减半后发生。做多9月合约,同时做空比特币现货是你的策略。从本质上讲,你做多的波动。如果现货暴跌,在某些点为将会有远期投资者推高远期比特币合约的一家。如果现货大幅上升,做空的会平仓因为空仓亏损是无限的。这两种情况都涉及到九月期货合约与现货之间不断增加的溢价。与之前的策略一样,也是有开仓成本,就是年化 52%的溢价。

买入九月XBTU16 售出比特币现货

没有大事会发生

可能根本就不会有什么大事发生,根本上就是投资者找东西来怕。你可以买入6月并售出9月期货,或者买入现货并售出9月期货。两者都会从溢价下跌(没有波动发生)而盈利。你的盈利就是从每日你拿着的溢价而来。

买入6月XBTM16,售出9月XBTU16

以太币:你抄顶了吗?

7 Feb 1988: Michael Jordan #23 of the Chicago Bulls goes for a dunk during the 1988 NBA All Star Slam Dunk Competition at Chicago Stadium in Chicago, Il. Jordan went on to win the Slam Dunk Competition. HIGH RESOLUTION FILE 42 MB. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory copyright notice and Credit: Copyright 2001 NBAE Mandatory Credit: Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty Images

成为一个能够有稳定收益的投资者不是一个容易的事,对比与看着自己的投资和折腾怎么盈利,我很享受写博客和营运这家交易所。不过我骨子里的性格告诉我当我已经写了两篇文章,以太币暴涨的寿数已经不多。

上个周一,Bitfinex挂牌了以太币,以太币上线了Homestead更新,并到了0.0372 ETH/BTC的高位,之后就坐上了暴跌快车,周内下跌了45%。

之后会是哪一个山寨上演呢?以太币的暴涨主要由大资金和科技公司、并且对比特币的不信任驱使,但是这两个宏观因素哦独没有怎么改变。

我认为以太币的高位会被再一次挑战并超越。我知道不少比特币交易所也密谋挂牌以太币。当然你可以去那边投资以太币现货。不过有什么爽得过在BitMEX使用25倍杠杆梭哈以太币期货呢!

Crypto Trader Digest – Mar 21

Message To Savers: “Bring Out The Gimp”

 

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7 Feb 1988: Michael Jordan #23 of the Chicago Bulls goes for a dunk during the 1988 NBA All Star Slam Dunk Competition at Chicago Stadium in Chicago, Il. Jordan went on to win the Slam Dunk Competition. HIGH RESOLUTION FILE 42 MB. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory copyright notice and Credit: Copyright 2001 NBAE Mandatory Credit: Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty Images

Greece is the modern day poster child for many economic ills. Capital controls, check. Insolvent banking system, check. Debt slavery, check. Even those who read the tea leaves correctly and withdrew their money from Greek banks into cash, are getting screwed because they hold 500 Euro notes.

A few months back the ECB declared that the 500 Euro note is on death row. The goal is to eliminate cash entirely so that deposit rates may go sharply negative. The 500 Euro note represents a significant amount of the outstand float of physical currency, and politicians can spin the removal of it as a means to fight “terrorism” and “money laundering”.

Back to the Greeks. Storing and securing a hoard of physical notes in small denominations can become burdensome even with modest savings. Smart Greek savers withdrew their savings to 500 Euro notes, the largest denomination offered. They thought they were safe, then Draghi brought out the gimp.

Greek savers returned to the bank, cash in hand, to exchange their 500 Euro notes for smaller ones. Banks are just as scared of NIRP (negative interest rate policy) as savers. They don’t want a bunch of cash that will be forcibly converted to electronic credits at the ECB when the 500 Euro note is phased out. So to cover the anticipated negative rates on their deposits, banks in Greece are now charging 1.5% to convert 500 Euro notes into smaller denominations.

It’s All About The Benjamins Baby. Larry Summers declared that the Treasury should ditch $100 bills to discourage the hoarding of cash. Benjamins are much more common than 500 Euro notes, and many more savers possess them. Absent serious outcry from American plebes, when the Fed finally goes negative, the $100 bill will be on the chopping block.

Even if you prepare correctly by exchanging electronic for physical cash, the government will just outlaw the largest denomination bill and banks will just pass on the expected negative rate in the form of a conversion charge. Storage of cash in large denominations is possible, but becomes unmanageable in smaller denominations. $10 million in $100 bills weighs 100kg., and has a volume of 103.49 litres. With $20 notes it becomes five times as heavy and voluminous.

Gold is a good option, but it still isn’t immune. Imagine everyone rushes to convert electronic money into gold. Now you must store this heavy metal. At a point demand for storage facilities will be so high, that the effective storage rate will converge to the negative interest rate charged by the bank.

Digital currencies are the only way to effectively and cheaply store vast quantity of electronic bank credit wealth. The more negative rates go, the more expensive traditional forms of wealth preservation will become. The Greek example plainly shows that even cash under a mattress isn’t immune to negative rates.

Greek Banks Admit To Charging Customers To Exchange Big Bills For Smaller Ones

How Much Does A Million Dollars Weigh

Trading The Bitcoin Halving

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The Bitcoin halving will occur this July. Most agree that there will be significant volatility around this event. Bitcoin is a much different animal than during the previous halving. With a $6 billion market cap, it is no longer a play thing for nerds. Serious people have bet millions of dollars on the continued existence of the project.

Volatility is a trader’s best friend, and at BitMEX we have many ways for both bullish and bearish traders to wager. With a combination of spot Bitcoin, June, and September BitMEX Bitcoin / USD futures contracts, traders express can a multitude of views on the halving. I will lay out a few strategies, and how traders can implement them on BitMEX.

Buy The Rumour, Sell The Fact

Given an event, the market will usually overreact. Often the best exit points for traders is right before the anticipated event occurs. Given the hype and fear surrounding the Bitcoin halving, one strategy is to go long volatility now and close the trade pre-halving. By selling June (XBTM16) and buying September (XBTU16)futures, traders have a pure volatility play pre-halving.

Currently the June-September basis trades at 50% PA. For this particular basis, I have removed the interest rate component, which is derived from the USD and Bitcoin swap rates on Bitfinex. This 50% PA premium represents what trades are paying for the volatility between the two periods. For those who believe a 50% annualised premium for the June-September spread is too low, they should sell June and buy September. If the uncertainty around the halving increases, the spread between these two contracts will widen, and the trade will show a profit.

Sell June XBTM16, Buy September XBTU16

Cheap Coins

For those who believe the halving will cause a spike in the price of Bitcoin, buying the September futures contract is appropriate. With the addition of leverage and the quanto effect, long holders of September contracts will profit handsomely. However, there is a cost of entry, which is the premium at which the September contract trades over spot. Currently the September contract trades at 52% PA premium to spot during this relatively quiet period. If volatility increases due to a spike in the price, the premium will likely increase. Consider this the cost of your lottery ticket.

Buy September XBTU16

Post Halving Fireworks

Maybe you aren’t sure whether the price will spike or plummet, but you do know that something big will happen after the halving. Going long the September contract, while short selling Bitcoin is appropriate. Essentially you are long volatility. If spot collapses, at some point bottom feeders will rush in to buy longer dated futures contracts as they offer the best leveraged returns after major downward price movements. If spot spikes, shorts will rush to cover due to the unlimited downside of being short Bitcoin. Both scenarios involve the premium between the September futures contract and spot increasing. As with the previous strategy, you must pay to play. The 52% PA premium is your cost of entry.

Buy September XBTU16, Short Spot Bitcoin

Much Ado About Nothing

This halving nonsense is a bunch of bollocks, and everyone is scared for no reason. Then selling volatility is the trade for you. You can either buy June and sell September, or buy spot and sell September. In both cases, you profit from nothing happening. Your profit comes in the form of daily positive carry from selling the September contract which trades more expensive than the June contract or spot.

Buy June XBTM16, Sell September XBTU16

Ether : Top Ticked It

7 Feb 1988: Michael Jordan #23 of the Chicago Bulls goes for a dunk during the 1988 NBA All Star Slam Dunk Competition at Chicago Stadium in Chicago, Il. Jordan went on to win the Slam Dunk Competition.  HIGH RESOLUTION FILE 42 MB. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory copyright notice and Credit: Copyright 2001 NBAE  Mandatory Credit: Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty Images

Being a profitable trader is a tough gig. I enjoy writing and running an exchange more than constantly having to generate alpha. But the trader in me should have known the moment that I penned two essays with gushing praise for Ether, that the price would take a digger.

Last Monday Bitfinex listed Ether and Homestead was released. The price touched a high of 0.0372 Ether / Bitcoin and then took the express train to dump city. The price declined 45% in the subsequent trading days.

What’s next for the shitcoin turned serious contender? Ether price appreciation is driven by adoption by large financial and technology organisations, and a vote of no-confidence on Bitcoin. Neither of those two conditions have changed.

Ether / Bitcoin is poised to retest the all time high, and I bet it will be surpassed. I hear rumblings of plans for more large Bitcoin / USD exchanges to add Ether trading. Give the people what they want. While you can trade Ether / Bitcoin on a spot basis on a variety of exchanges, there is only one place to YOLO 25x Ether, BitMEX. The ETH7D contract awaits with 25x leverage, and the ability to go long or short Ether with only Bitcoin.

Risk Disclaimer

BitMEX is not a licensed financial advisor. The information presented in this newsletter is an opinion, and is not purported to be fact. Bitcoin is a volatile instrument and can move quickly in any direction. BitMEX is not responsible for any trading loss incurred by following this advice.

BitMEX新界面

我期待了这一刻很久了!

年多前我期待着BitMEX的界面会有一个类似桌面系统的新界面,衔接着全屏系统和多功能的网页界面。类似于MT4的交易工具

最后,我使用了 React-Grid的技术,我其中一个最多人使用的开源程式。在15年初我曾经希望把它加到BitMEX里,不过最后有其他更重要的功能要处理…

在这年里,不少公司都用了我们的程序,其中包括了阿玛逊的云控界面(Cloudwatch)也使用了我的程序。

今天,我们很高兴宣布我们终于能够推出稳定版本的自订界面。比起如果我在15年推出更快,更稳定而且更好用。

customUI

 

自订界面可以透过点选自己的用户名称(右上)再点Advance进阶界面启用。大家可以建立个性化的界面,方便手机、电脑、平板上不同的需要

希望大家享受我们的平台,我会在聊天室跟大家继续聊,有什么bug或者建议尽管一一说给我听吧!

Sam – BitMEX技术总裁

币界新闻择要 – 三月十四日

BitMEX自订界面

我们的技术总裁 Sam 对于BitMEX的界面有一种不可以用文字形容的执着。今天BitMEX更新了我们的界面,容许用户随意更改界面,更改每个工具的位置和大小。

没有一所交易所提供这个程度的个人化,更牛逼的是,连阿玛逊的CloudFront 前端控制台也是使用Sam的程序来建的!

从今天开始,所有使用进阶UI(Advance UI)的用户就可以使用这个个性化的功能,在你下一次载入BitMEX的时候,我们就会自动为你加载你预先设定的界面

其他的更新包括效率及稳定性提升已经推送到本次的更新,同时,现在的图表提供了交割指标(紫色线),方便投资者了解市场动向

 立即使用新版本的BitMEX

Factom,下一个爆发币?

山寨币的牛市持续,上个礼拜五,BitMEX挂牌了第一个 Factom/比特币期货合约,FCT7D。投资者现在可以10倍做多做空Factom。

就跟我们的25 倍杠杆以太币期货合约,FCT7D只需要投资者提供比特币作为保证金,而所有盈亏也使用比特币结算,有关该合约的详情请参阅 如何投资Factom.

以太比成為了币界的黄金,比特币倒要变废铁?

以太币从“另一个圈钱山寨币”隔夜就成为了比台北的竞争对手,作为推动以太坊的代币,现在现在已经拥有10亿美金的市值,对于一个山寨币来说是一项成就。

这个周末Bitfinex选不了加入 ETHUSD及ETHBTC的交易配对,而中国的CHBTC交易所也宣布挂牌ETH的交易配对。所以应该是时候穿上太空衣,准备中国大妈跟赌棍们把以太币推上外太空。

当然,以太币的开发团队也做了不少值得赞赏的工作,但是最大的诱因也可能要归咎于比特币Core跟Classic的硬分叉争辩,投资者已经用他的金钱表达了他们对这个争辩的意向——投资山寨比分散风险。那些拥有几百万挖矿资产的矿工好应该了解他们现在面对的情况,好好折让一下,不然输到最后的必然是他们自己。俗语也有说嘛,鹬蚌相持 渔人得利。

BitMEX本身于各种虚拟货币关联不大,我们只希望透过一个全球认可的资产来做抵押品。然而比特币也因为成为最成流行的电子货币而衍生出其它问题。而最终会损失得最多的矿工却拒绝改变。如果另一个比比特币更好的山寨币推出,而又能够解决比特币解决不到的问题,那么比特币将会成为上一代的废铁,一夜回到解放前。难道矿工的目的就是酱紫吗?

以太币真的是“保值”工具吗?

现在最多人问的问题大概是以太币究竟能不能够在长线维持现在的这个价值。以太坊一直想大家形容以太币的目的并不是作为保值工具,而是推动以太坊运作的代币。这是以太坊开发团队其中一个最明智的做法。

金融机构和和政府不喜欢比特币的一个很大的原因是比特币作为保值工具成为了政府法定货币的威胁。然而他们却了解到分散式的块练技术是一个很重要的金融科技。以太坊成功地利用此点而特地表明以太币并不是保值工具,目标只是在区块链上建立不同的应用。

最终,政府、金融机构、不同的程序员都能够参与这个项目。微软、UBS、R3等等都在测试以太坊的实力,但是从以太坊的发行模式来看,很可能最终也是成为一个类似比特币,非政府控制的保值工具。

在IPO的时候创造了6千万个以太币,而每年则会发行1800万个以太币,通胀比率将会在未来100年高速降到低于1%一年,、。

看来以太币对于银行来说就是披上了羊毛的狼,他们会继续用以太坊来建立块练应供工具,直到以太币成为了一个大家认可的代币作为抵押。然而对于以太坊来说现在还是太早下任何定论。不过我对于以太坊的远见十分敬佩

The Issuance Model Of Ethereum

人行梭哈

毫无疑问,中国一直以来受到了国有的“丧尸”所拖累,这些企业还存在的原因只是因为他们是国有的,而银行只能被迫借贷给他们,经济学家已经能够预见到他们坏账对于银行体系亏算将会上百亿计。

然而,中国政府已经表明他们会控制过度生产和不再依赖借贷来增长经济。不过上个世纪遗漏下来的投资将会在这个世纪买单,而不幸地买单的却又一次是银行体系了。

近来,人行宣布了商业银行可以透过债务主权互换来减轻他们帐簿上的不良信贷,比如说 公司A 不能够还清债务,银行现在可以选择透过股权拥有某家公司,如果环球经济明朗的话,这个将会对于银行是好事,但是如果该公司仍然没有办法起死回生,他们将会继续透过这个银行系统融资,成为系统的负累。

如果发生了的话,银行将会持有着没有价值的股权,并被迫继续增加该公司的信贷额。到最后保住整个系统的往往就是央妈,可能说把银行所持有的股权换债等等。人民银行跟全世界很多的央行一样,最后就会成为一个只能做多市场的“对冲”基金,而货币供应只会越来越多。

最后的结果我们已经清楚了,剩下的问题就只是究竟这些新的人民币会何时释放到市场呢?人民币已经大幅贬值了好几次,央行在各方压力之下已经不能再支撑市场多久了,人民币大幅贬值必须是迟早发生的事。

China to ease commercial banks’ bad debt burden via equity swaps

如何投资Factom

现在其中一个最热门的新山寨币就是Factom(FCT)。而factoid正是用于驱动Factom协议令牌。虽然技术上不正确,BitMEX会使用大家较为熟悉的名称Factom作为交易配对名称。现在,Factom是自由交易的山寨币,此快讯将解释如何使用不同的方式来表达对这个新山寨币多空的看法。

 

现货交易

在现货市场买卖Factom相当简单。最高流动性的Factom货币配对是 Factom /比特币(FCT / XBT)。 Poloniex是交易量领先的交易所。

购买 Factom

如果希望买入Factom,需要先发送比特币到交易所,再在市场上换取Factom。这必须是全资完成(即没有杠杆)。

售出 Factom

如果您持有Factom,可以到交易所兑换比特币。但是沽空你不拥有的Factom是不可能的。

杠杆或衍生产品交易

对于大多数我们博客的读者,杠杆交易时一个更有趣的交易方式来投资Factom。除了比特币和莱特币,使用杠杆或衍生品交易山寨币是很少见的。 BitMEX了解到一些比特币投资者想使用杠杆投资Factom,所以我们的合约只需要使用比特币作为保证金。

BitMEX 刚刚挂牌了 FCT7D, 一个每周交割的 FCT / BTC 期货合约。每张 FCT7D 合约代表 1 FCT。合约在每周五中国时间晚上8时根据FCTXBT的价格交割, 所有保证金,利润和亏损在比特币计算和交付。允许的最大杠杆是10倍。

买入 Factom 期货

BitMEX Factom期货合约允许交易者猜测的FCT​​XBT汇率的未来价值。 希望做多 1,000 FCT的投资者可以买入 1,000张 FCT7D 合约. FCT7D的妙处在于,它只要求比特币作为保证金。 最大杠杆为10倍。如果FCT7D价格是0.005,投资者必须拿出0.5个比特币作为保证金 (1,000 张 * 0.005 FCTXBT * 10%). 如果价格上涨到0.006,利润就会是1个比特币 = (0.006 – 0.005) * 1,000.

售出Factom期货

沽空、或者卖出一些你不拥有的山寨币在币圈内十分罕见。透过 FCT7D, 投资者只要拥有比特币就能够做空Factom。例如,一个投资者希望做空 1000 Factom,就需要卖出1000 张FCT7D合约。 而只需要比特币做保证金。 如果FCT7D价格是0.005,投资者必须拿出0.5 比特币的保证金(1000张 * 0.005 FCTXBT * 10%)。如果价格下降到0.004,利润就是 1比特币=(0.004  –  0.005)* -1000。

BitMEX 的 FCT7D 合约是唯一一个让投资者之使用比特币就能够做空Factom 的交易产品,关于FCT7D 合约的详情可参阅 FCT7D 合约说明

Crypto Trader Digest – Mar 14

The BitMEX Custom UI

Our CTO, Sam, is crazy about making the BitMEX interface better than any other exchange. He just released a major upgrade to the BitMEX UI. All trading widgets can now be moved and resized anywhere within the dashboard.

This is huge – no other exchange has this level of customization. In fact, this system works so well that Amazon use’s Sam’s code to serve their CloudFront Dashboards!

Starting today, users on the Advanced UI (open the top-right menu to switch) can move and resize any of the dashboard widgets. When you close the tab, BitMEX will remember your configuration.

Other changes available this week include performance & stability updates, and the automatic layering of the underlying index on the chart.

Try It Out

FACT(om) My Bitch Up

The altcoin bull market continues. Last friday, BitMEX launched the world’s first Factom / Bitcoin futures contract, FCT7D. Users can now go long or short Factom with 10x leverage.

Just like our 25x Ether futures contract, FCT7D only requires Bitcoin as margin. All profit and loss are in Bitcoin as well. To learn more about FCT7D, please read How To Trade Factom.

Ether : Gold :: Bitcoin : Coal

Ether’s transformation from shitcoin to serious contender happened rapidly. As the token that powers the Ethereum network, it now has a market cap of close to $1 billion. This is quite an accomplishment given the network effect and first mover advantage that Bitcoin enjoys.

This weekend Bitfinex announced it would be adding Ether / USD and Ether / Bitcoin spot trading, and that trading is now live. A large Chinese exchange, CHBTC, also announced they would also list the currency pair. Put on your moon boots, nothing rockets a shitcoin faster than Chinese speculators sippin’ green tea (you know what I mean if you have ever visited the casino floor in Macau: it’s pretty much impossible to get an alcoholic beverage, but hot water and tea are always on offer).

The Ethereum dev team has done an amazing job, but a significant driver of the recent spike is growing frustration over civil war between Bitcoin Core and Classic. The traders are speaking with the money and it’s going into Ether and other altcoins. The miners who have millions of USD invested in Bitcoin mining hardware need to recognise what is happening around them. Their alliance with the core developers, who refuse to do anything, will lead to material losses.

BitMEX is cryptocurrency agnostic. We want a global form of money good collateral. The Bitcoin network is buckling under its own popularity (whether or not this use is due to spamming or other nefarious attacks is irrelevant). There are credible solutions to the problems but those with the most to lose, the miners, refuse to change. If another crypto currency can fulfill those functions better than Bitcoin, Bitcoin will become the newest shitcoin. Bitcoin has been released back into gen pop, and needs to be careful not to get shanked in the yard.

Ether, A Store Of Value?

The big question is whether Ether can retain value in the long term. The Ethereum organisation pushed the narrative that Ether is not meant to be a store of value, but just a token to power applications on the Ethereum network. This was the smartest thing the organisation could have done.

The big reason why financial institutions and governments bad mouth Bitcoin is that it represents a direct threat to their fiat currency seigniorage rents. However, they do recognise the power of the distributed ledger technology. The Ethereum organisation capitalised on this. They publicly proclaimed their token Ether is not a store of value. Their stated goal was to create an application layer on top of a programmable blockchain.

As a result financial institutions, governments, and regular programmers alike could all participate in the project. Microsoft, UBS, the R3 consortium are all experimenting with using Ethereum to power blockchain projects. But on closer examination of the issuance model of Ether, there is a high probability that it will become just like Bitcoin, a non-governmentally controlled currency and store of value.

60 million Ether were created during the IPO process. Each year 18 million Ether will come into existence. While a constant nominal amount of Ether will be produced each year, the rate of inflation will decline dramatically over the next 100 years to under 1% per year. Every year a small percentage of Bitcoin is lost as users lose their private keys. It’s impossible to know exactly how much is lost, but some estimate this loss to be 1% each year. The constant inflation of Ethereum in the long run will not debase the currency, but will keep the supply stable.

Ether is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. The old guard will build useful applications using the protocol which will increase the demand and popularity of the token. Ether will then transform from just a token into a currency sought after for is status as money good collateral. There are still many hurdles ahead, but hats off to the Ethereum organisation for their slight of hand.

The Issuance Model Of Ethereum

PBOC Goes All In

There is no question that China is stuffed with scores of zombie companies. They are only alive because they are state owned, and Beijing forces banks to lend to them. Investors and economics have various forecasts as to the severity of the loan losses that must be recognised. Whatever the final number, it will be in the trillions of USD.

Beijing has proclaimed its intention to rationalise over-production, and transition the economic model away from a debt fueled one. That is great, but someone must pay for the malinvestment of the last decade. Unfortunately for regular comrades, Beijing has chosen them to bear the losses again.

The PBOC recently announced that commercial banks can conduct debt for equity swaps to alleviate their non-performing loan books. Let’s say zombie company A is in default. Rather than recognise a loss and provision accordingly, banks can now take ownership of said company through its equity. That’s great if global trade and industrial commodity prices rebound sharply. The company will return to positive cash flow, and the bank will reap outsized returns from owning the equity tranche. Unfortunately, if we muddle through or even go lower, the company will still not be profitable and will need fresh loans from the same coterie of state owned banks.

If that happens, the bank has worthless equity, and still needs to extend more credit to the zombie company. At the end of the road is always the PBOC. The likely outcome is that the PBOC will let the bank pledge their equity for loans. The PBOC, like many other central banks, will become a long-only equity hedge fund. The money supply will still expand, and ordinary comrades will face increased inflation.

The end result is known. The question is how long will it take before banks began pledging equity for fresh Yuan from the PBOC. The PBOC has bought itself time before the painful internal and external CNY devaluation must occur. But don’t be fooled: it will happen.

China to ease commercial banks’ bad debt burden via equity swaps

Risk Disclaimer

BitMEX is not a licensed financial advisor. The information presented in this newsletter is an opinion, and is not purported to be fact. Bitcoin is a volatile instrument and can move quickly in any direction. BitMEX is not responsible for any trading loss incurred by following this advice.

欢迎来到BitMEX – 简易中文指南

BitMEX知道我们的平台开始受中文语言地区的客户欢迎,我们正在积极完善交易所,并会在改动完成后为BitMEX加上各种语言选项,以适合世界各地的投资者。对于英文不太灵光的用户,暂时我们能提供一些比较基本的教程,也希望各位能多多包涵。

那么我们先从注册开始

注册

我们先去注册页 https://www.bitmex.com/register

 

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交易

比特币在一个确认到帐后我们可以开始交易了,BitMEX交易所提供多个交易品种供用户选择,包括各种长短周期的比特币期货合约、近来火爆的以太币周交割合约还有与各位关系密切的月交割新华A50股指合约。而在优秀的风控系统下,部分合约更提供高达100倍的杠杆,让投资者能够以小资金撬动大利润。

首先我们在交易主页可以看到选择交易合约的导向栏。bm3

除了新华A50合约以外,其他合约的交割时间都是晚上8时(中国时间)。BitMEX多个合约品种能够适合不同投资者的需要,不论长期看多看空比特币、短期波动炒卖、跨期合约套利等等,这些合约都能够灵活适应您的需要。

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市场资讯面,我们的订单簿不单提供实时盘面,交割指标和深度加权的平均价格也一目了然。与其他交易所不同的是我们会提供实时系统分摊比率的资讯,让用户了解投资有关合约的利润是否会被平仓失败的爆仓订单所影响。不过别担心!即使BitMEX提供100倍杠杆的期货交易,我们凭着我们的风控系统,上一次发生分摊已经是三个多月前的事,也代表着分摊系统已经在过去多于100次的交割一次也没有被启动。

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BitMEX也提供各种委托模式,力求让投资者可以使用我们提供的工具来对应自己喜欢的投资方法。

顺带一提,BitMEX使用仓位净值方法,模式类似于现货系统。如果你做多(买入)某张合约,平仓的方法就是做空(售出)该合约。反之如果你开始的时候是售出的话,平仓的方法就是买回该合约。

 

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仓位栏目并不复杂,投资者最需要关注的除了合约盈亏就是爆仓价格,当合约深度加权价格达到了爆仓价格的时候,仓位就会被BitMEX的风控系统回收并平仓,所有保证金将会被回收。所以用户必须注意爆仓点位,尤其是逐仓的仓位,并适时为仓位添上保证金,避免爆仓的发生。

 

帮助

如果有其他不了解的地方,我们欢迎你提交问题,虽然我们界面暂时全部都是英文,不过我们团队也有懂得中文的,所以欢迎大家以中文与我们沟通,让我们了解各位更多,打造更好的平台。

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BitMEX简易中文指南谈到这里,如果各位有什么建议、问题,欢迎和我们联络,交易版面的左下角也有 “Trollbox” 聊天室,不时会有懂中文的用户在线,也可以和其他用户交流一下。在此顺祝一本万利。