BitMEX 100x杠杆无交割比特币合约上线

BitMEX很高兴宣布 XBTUSD 无交割杠杆比特币合约上线,让你使用高达100倍杠杆,更不会交割。

运作方法

  1. XBTUSD不会交割,可以随你目标时长持仓。
  2. 做多做空的投资者每日会根据杠杆市场的利率支付或收取相关市场的利率,而XBTUSD参考利率的市场是Bitfinex的借贷市场利率。整个模式跟现货杠杆相约,不过却可以使用全比特币圈里最大杠杆
  3. 上涨做多的赚钱,下跌做空的转圈

详情参阅 利率互换指南, XBTUSD合约明细.

挂牌日

2016年5月13日,北京时间晚上8时

注: XBT24H, XBT48H, XBT7D XBU7D 将会下架,季度合约将会继续交易,直到他们交割后才会下架

API 更改

新增了一下栏目

fundingBaseSymbol
fundingQuoteSymbol
fundingTimestamp
fundingRate

Announcing the Launch of the Perpetual XBTUSD Leveraged Swap

BitMEX is proud to announce that we are officially launching the world’s first perpetual XBTUSD leveraged swap product. XBTUSD allows you to trade the Bitcoin / USD exchange rate with up to 100x leverage with no expiry.

How Does It Work?

  1. XBTUSD is perpetual and does not expire. You can keep your positions open for as long as you like.
  2. Longs and shorts receive or pay interest each day based on the Bitfinex USD and Bitcoin lending market. It’s just like margin trading, but with the highest leverage offered by any exchange.
  3. Longs profit when the price rises; shorts profit when the price falls.

For more information, please read the Swaps Guide and also the XBTUSD Contract Specifications.

Launch Date

Friday 13 May 2016 at 12:00 UTC

Note: The daily XBT24H, rolling XBT48H, and weekly XBT7D and XBU7D contracts will be delisted. However, the quarterly XBTM16 and semi-annual XBTU16 contracts will remain until their respective expiries.

API Changes

The following fields have been added to the instrument table:

fundingBaseSymbol
fundingQuoteSymbol
fundingTimestamp
fundingRate

币界新闻择要 – 五月九日

ETHXBT 无交割利率交换合约

刚刚过去的这个周五,我们推出了第一个无交割利率交换合约,ETHXBT。投资者可以做多或做空ETH/BTC,使用高达33倍的杠杆,并以比特币作为保证金。 ETHXBT如现货盘一样,不会交割。

我们最近将ETHXBT的杠杆从25倍加到到33倍。 ETHXBT是唯一一个提供这样高杠杆的山寨币期货合约。

有关合约的运作模式,请参阅 BitMEX无交割合约 — 利率互换

我们很高兴合约已经顺利推出。投资者体会到ETHXBT高杠杆和不会过期的合约特质。我们的下一个目标是推出XBTUSD。

XBTUSD将是根据比特币/美元汇率的无交割利率互换合约。每张无交割利率互换合约的价值是$ 1等值的比特币。买家将支付Bitfinex美元贷款利率和收取Bitcoin的贷款利率。卖方将获得Bitfinex美元贷款利息并支付比特币贷款利息。 XBTUSD已经在BitMEX 测试网开始运行了。

当XBTUSD挂牌,XBT24H,XBT48H,XBT7D和XBU7D将在到期日除牌。 XBTM16和XBTU16将继续交易。现在我们还没有决定是否将长期的双币种合约除牌(季度双币种合约),我们希望大家提出反馈。

莱特币回归 — 莱特币无交割合约

许多投资者希望我们一个重新上市期货莱特币合约。我们知道投资者者的须有重新挂牌莱特币合约LTCXBT,类似于ETHXBT的利率互换合约。

LTCXBT允许投资者做多或做空Bitfinex 莱特币兑 Bitcoin的汇率,并使用高达25倍的杠杆。投资者必须以比特币作为保证金。买家付Bitfinex比特币贷款贷款利率,并收取莱特币贷款利率。卖方收到Bitcoin的借贷费率并支付莱特币借贷利率。就像ETHXBT,LTCXBT不会是不会交割过期。

500欧元纸币绝种

欧洲央行颁布法令,在2018年底停止发行500欧元钞票。今年早些时候,欧洲央行对于容许银行将财富存于欧元区以外感到不满,这将是进入负利率的第一步。

如果欧洲央行能说服瑞士央行,停止发行1000瑞郎钞票,那么欧洲货币供应量的控制权就能够完全被掌握了。

欧洲人慢慢地开始意识到欧洲货币的掌权人怎么让他们失去存钱的权利。即使你去银行里头的钱换成实体大面额纸币也救不了你。发行停止后,欧洲央行将迫使银行在兑换大额时收取大额手续费。想象一下,你需要付出几个百分比的手续费来将500欧元钞票分为五个100欧元纸币。

聰明的存戶在這些宏觀的因素影響下,自然就會將自己的資產换成其他非政府能控制的电子货币,除了黄金以外,最够流动性的莫过于比特币。

欧洲和日本的政策引领了全球进入负利率政策,德拉吉近来更为全球来了个量宽,而日本的黑田则期待会继续使用更加强烈的政策让美兑日低于100。

黄金是作为对冲失败的货币政策的好方法,不过不久的将来,政策制定人或许会将囤积黄金以各种名义将他看成非法行为,只要出动X光所有黄金都会原型毕露地被找出来。随着互联网发达,只需要一部电话,一个APP,你就能随意管理你的财富,而且不需要经过银行和政府的监视。

香港贸易进销存欺诈的终结

中国的治本管制政策一直以来都只是纸老虎一只,大资金的流动只需要透过出入中国的交易发票就能够搞定。

欺诈的方法很简单:只需要一家中国公司提交来自香港的货物,假设提供哦你了价值$100的进口收据。中国人民银行就给该公司$100的兑换权。现在公司拥有$ 100支付货款。但是,货物价值可以是远远低于$100。那么那一家公司就能从货物价格和报价单之间的差距中汇走贬值的人民币。

路透社 指出: “香港的海关正多管齐下,在航运和金融部门加强打击所谓的假发票交易,让逃离中国数十亿的资金变成非法。”

中国政府好明显就是指使了他们的走狗梁振英(香港的非民选特首) 去打压这些资金出逃方法。这是中国资金出逃最重要的渠道。

下一个在打压名单上必定是企业并购了。有没有想过为什么中国企业争相购买和自己行业不同的外国公司?因为如果你了一家国外公司,你就可以合法地将人民币转换成美元或欧元完成交易。

里昂证券近日报道,对外直接投资已经多于外商直接投资。这显然是中国企业正在做的事情,所以等着看政府把另一扇资金出逃的门关上吧。

 

主流的资金出逃方法会陆续被封闭。然而人民币交易和买入比特币是合法的。虽然流动性对于数十亿的大额汇款肯定是太低,不过只要有一小群人使用比特币作为资金出逃的途径,比特币的波动将会大幅上升。

 

莱特币又要开涨了吗?LTCXBT合约是你的好伙伴

下面是正向套利策略,下一个辣条(莱特币)暴涨的波动时可以从套利获利

交易策略:

  1. 使用比特币买入莱特币,这必须是现货买入。假设你买入了 10,000 LTC.
  2. 在BitMEX售出 10000张 LTCXBT.
  3. 在BitFinex出借你的莱特币,赚取莱特币的利息
  4. 你会在你的LTCXBT仓位支付LTC利率并获得XBT利率

这是一个正向套利的交易,因为你能够透过LTCXBT合约在Bitfinex获得XBT的利率,你在LTC获得的利率与LTCXBT支付的利率抵消。

现在你等到暴涨之前,庄家会预留在市场上的LTC,避免投资者做空LTC,迫使做空的投资者支付高利率。

这个策略让比特币投资者在LTC建仓并获利,而且没有汇率风险。当暴涨来临的时候(即使借贷利率上涨的时候):

回购你的LTCXBT合约,现在你就只有做多LTC的仓位,在你售出你的LTC之前,还能够继续出借你的LTC。当莱特币涨得差不多时,你就能平仓了。这次你跟庄主终于能够一起装逼一起飞了。

比特币:觉醒

比特币上周在Bitfinex上破470美元,而中国终于破了3000元的关口,随后下跌至$ 435(2800)。我们自回调后一直在$ 450区间徘徊。有趣的是Coinbase目前价格对比其他交易所Bitfinex和其他主要交易所是除于1.2%的溢价,带领大市上升。究竟是美国投资者涌入还是Bitfinex支撑不足?这个要让时间告诉我们了。

其次,美元借入利率已经下调至“正常的” 15%年利率。之前我们曾经看见30%年利率的美金 – 这表明该追涨而导致的需求有所下降。

看着技术面,现在我们看似要为上三角封顶,交叉点预期在5月末发生在$465。有人可能会参考上年年末12月的走势,当时曾经测试$470并随之在$400-$470之间徘徊,低点在$350。这一次的走势我认为向上测试$1000的机会比归零的大,因为这一次的走势更为平稳,较小大幅做作的上涨。

如果我们打破了上三角,在比特币减半的情况下,我们会遇到一些波动,而波动的走势较大机会是上涨。如果我是正确的,那么BitMEX现在挂牌的季度合约(六月和九月)就被市场低估了。两者都是定价约65%年利率,而因为较为短期的期货通常都会成为追涨的地方,一个良好的对冲交易将会是现在先做多6月期货合约并做空9月期货合约。 BitMEX提供了在这两个合约提供25倍杠杆。

一如既往,享受你的投资吧!

Crypto Trader Digest – May 9

ETHXBT Swaps Live

This past Friday, we launched our first swap product, ETHXBT. Traders can go long or short the Ether / Bitcoin exchange rate with up to 33x leverage, and fund their position with Bitcoin. ETHXBT trades like spot and does not expire.

We recently increased the leverage from 25x to 33x. ETHXBT is the only product globally offering leverage over 5x.

Please read Swaps 101 to learn exactly how the this product works.

We are very happy with how the product is trading. Traders appreciate the high leverage and the fact that ETHXBT does not expire. Our next goal is to launch XBTUSD.

XBTUSD will be a swap product for the Bitcoin / USD exchange rate. Each swap will be worth $1 of Bitcoin at any price. Buyers will pay the Bitfinex USD lending rate and receive the Bitcoin lending rate. Sellers will receive the Bitfinex USD rate and pay the Bitcoin rate. XBTUSD is already live on BitMEX Testnet.

When XBTUSD is launched, XBT24H, XBT48H, XBT7D, and XBU7D will be delisted as they expire. XBTM16 and XBTU16 will continue trading until expiration. We have not decided whether we will list additional longer dated quanto futures contracts once these expire. We appreciate your feedback on the matter.

Litecoin Returns

Many traders badgered us to relist a Litecoin futures contract. We listened, and LTCXBT is now live. LTCXBT is a swap product similar to ETHXBT.

LTCXBT allows traders to go long or short the Bitfinex Litecoin / Bitcoin exchange rate with up to 25x leverage. Traders must fund their position with Bitcoin. Buyers pay the Bitfinex Bitcoin lending rate, and receive the Litecoin rate. Sellers receive the Bitcoin rate and pay the Litecoin rate. Just like ETHXBT, LTCXBT does not expire.

500 Euro Note Gets Dodo’d

The ECB decreed that by the end of 2018, issuance of the 500 Euro note will cease. [ZH] Earlier this year, the ECB expressed its displeasure with the ability of plebes to store wealth outside the Euro banking cartel. This is the first step towards steeply lower negative rates.

This is a significant development in the war on cash. If the ECB can persuade the SNB (Swiss National Bank) to eliminate the 1,000 CHF note, then total domination of Europe’s monetary supply can begin.

Europeans slowly are realising how the monetary priests of Europe mean to fleece them of the privilege to save. Converting electronic bank credits into physical large denomination notes won’t save you. After issuance has ceased, the ECB will pressure banks to enact large fees to change large denomination notes into smaller ones. Imagine paying a few percentage points for the privilege of converting a 500 Euro note into five 100 Euro notes.

The smart savers will slowly convert electronic bank credits into a form of non-governmentally aligned electronic money. Bitcoin is the most liquid form of e-gold.

Europe and Japan lead the developed world in the push for larger negative rates. Super Mario recently launched QE for the world, and Kuroda-san will bring the bazooka out once more lest the market take USDJPY below 100.

Gold used to be a great way to protect your wealth from idiotic monetary policy, but x-ray’s and other advanced search techniques will make hoarding gold a fool’s errand. With an internet connection, a mobile phone, and a Bitcoin wallet, you can save and spend your wealth when you please, without permission from a bank.

HK Trade Invoicing Fraud Escape Hatch Closing

China’s capital controls historically have been as loose as Hester Prynne. The easiest way to move large sums into and out of China was via trade invoice fraud in Hong Kong.

The fraud is simple: A Chinese company submits a receipt importing $100 worth of goods from Hong Kong. The PBOC allows the company to FX CNY into USD. Now the company has $100 to pay for the goods. However, the value of the goods is vastly lower than $100. The company pockets the difference in USD and has escaped a depreciating Yuan.

Reuters reports that: “Hong Kong is conducting a multi-pronged customs, shipping and financial sector crackdown against so-called fake trade invoicing that allows billions of dollars of capital to leave China illegally.”

Beijing obviously called up their stooge CY Leung (the unelected CEO of Hong Kong) and told him to shut it down. This is by far the and most important channel of money out of China.

Next on the list is corporate M&A. Ever wonder why Chinese corporates are scrambling to buy foreign firms in completely different industries? Well if you buy a company abroad, you can legally convert CNY to USD or Euros to complete the transaction.

CLSA recently reported that Foreign Direct Investment has been eclipsed by Outward Direct Investment. It is plainly clear what Chinese corporates are doing, it is now up to Beijing to shut down yet another avenue for CNY to leave the Middle Kingdom.

As the larger and more popular avenues to skirt capital controls are closed, it will put pressure on those methods still remaining. Selling CNY and buying Bitcoin isLEGAL in China. While the liquidity is certainly too low to handle Billions of CNY, even a modest uptick in flows from CNY to Bitcoin will rerate the whole digital currency sector higher.

Using LTCXBT To Play The Next LTC Pump ‘n Dump

The following strategy is aimed at holders of Bitcoin that want to create a positive carry strategy with the optionality to profit from the next Litecoin pump and dump.

Trade Mechanics:

  1. Sell Bitcoin and buy physical Litecoin. This must be done without borrowing Bitcoin on margin. Assume you purchased 10,000 LTC.
  2. Sell 10,000 LTCXBT swaps on BitMEX.
  3. Loan out your 10,000 LTC on Bitfinex, and earn the LTC rate.
  4. You will pay the LTC rate on your short LTCXBT position.
  5. You will earn the XBT rate on your LTCXBT short position.

This trade is a positive carry trade because you earn the XBT lending rate on Bitfinex through the LTCXBT swap. Your earnings from lending out LTC are negated because you must pay the LTC rate through your LTCXBT position.

Now you wait. Preceding the pump, the operators will reserve all the available LTC in the lending market. This eliminates the ability for traders to short LTC on margin, and it forces those who are short on margin to cover or be margin called when their LTC loans expire.

This strategy allows Bitcoin holders to build Litecoin inventory and get paid at the same time, with no risk. When the pump arrives (you will know because LTC lending rates begin to rise quickly), do the following to unwind the trade:

Buy back your short LTCXBT swaps. Now you are left naked long LTC. Before you liquidate your physical LTC, continue lending at the existing rate. The LTCXBT swap’s LTC funding rate will adjust only after 24 hours, which means that you will pay a lower rate via the swap than you currently receive on your physical LTC.

When the time is right, liquidate your long LTC position for Bitcoin. Sit back like Scrooge McDuck on your pile of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin: Still Alive

Bitcoin rallied last week with a high on Bitfinex just over $470, and China finally breaking 3,000, before a sharp rejection down to $435 (and 2,800). We have since recovered and trading in a $450 range. Interestingly Coinbase is now trading at a 1.2% premium to Bitfinex and the other major exchanges, leading the pack for once. Only time will tell whether there is increased purchasing going on in the US, or Bitfinex is taking a breather.

On that point, the USD borrow rates have come back down to ‘normalized’ 15%pa levels on Bitfinex since the dump. Prior to the this we were seeing transactions at 30%pa – indicating that demand for that FOMO has dropped.

Looking at technicals, it appears that we are heading towards the closure of an upper-triangle, with the cross expected to happen towards the end of May at a price of $465. One may point to a similarity to the price action late Dec ’15 – Jan ’16 whereby we had a push up to $470, rejected to low $400 levels and back up to $470 again only to have a strong reaction to the downside to $350. However, this rise up has been different, more stable with less intrusive green candles and I feel we may then make a clear push onwards to levels closer to $1000 than to $0.

If we do break the upper triangle, and with the clock ticking closer to the halving, we are going to experience some much-welcomed volatility that is more likely to be priced for the upside. If I am correct, then the current June and September contracts traded on BitMEX are currently underpriced. Both are pricing around 65%pa basis, and since FOMO typically occurs towards the front end more so than the back end, a good hedged trade to take would be to long the June contract and short the September. BitMEX offers 25x leverage on both contracts, and as always, Happy Trading!

Risk Disclaimer

BitMEX is not a licensed financial advisor. The information presented in this newsletter is an opinion, and is not purported to be fact. Bitcoin is a volatile instrument and can move quickly in any direction. BitMEX is not responsible for any trading loss incurred by following this advice.

BitMEX无交割合约 — 利率互换

我要开跑车!

我很喜欢车,我有一个愿望就是感受一下开法拉利跑车刺激的感觉,不过可惜我并没有法拉利。那么既然买了这法拉利的土豪们也不会天天开出来炫,那么他们不开的那几天或许能够吧车借出去,赚个租金。

而我也不介意给小额的租金(利息)来开人家的法拉利来玩玩,我愿意用利息交换这法拉利的使用权

山寨币就是币圈的跑车

投资者喜欢山寨的原因不少就是他波动够厉害,短时间就能赚个大钱。不过炒家们都没有兴趣长期持有这些山寨比,他们只希望追个涨,炒个短期波幅。

所以很多的山寨炒家也喜欢杠杆炒山寨比。做多的时候以比特币保证借比特币做多;做空的时候他们以比特币作为抵押来借入山寨来卖空。两个情况投资者都要支付利息来借入比特币或山寨币。

跟法拉利的例子一样,投资者要给利息来换取币的使用权(租金)。投资者能够在短期内炒卖获利。

BitMEX无交割掉期合约简介

BitMEX掉期合约模拟投资者现货融资交易的资金流,每一个交易配对都有一个计价币种和基准币种,比如说 ETHXBT,ETH以太币就是基准货币,XBT比特币就是计价货币。

假设你想买入ETH,你先要借入XBT来换取(买入)ETH,借给你XBT的人会希望获取利息,当你买入ETH后你能够把它借给其他人。

在这个例子,你付了XBT(计价货币),获得基准货币(ETH),相反来说就将以上例子反过来。

为了完全模拟这个借币的经济效果,买入BitMEX掉期合约的投资者就需要付出计价货币的利息并收取基准货币的利息,相反来说,卖家则需要付出基准货币的利息并收取计价货币的利息。

不过因为BitMEX没有营运任何借贷业务,我们必须参考第三方的利息。

买卖双方互换各交易配对头寸的利息,而基准货币和计价货币之间的差额就是需要支付(或收取)的利息了,在每日利息计算时间则会根据账户头寸收取。就像拿着债卷,如果你在支息日拿着债卷,你就能拿到(或需要)支付利息。

掉期示意图

BitMEX Swaps Flow

上图显示了ETHXBT买家和卖家的支付利息和利益转移。

合约价格?

BitMEX的目标是在合约平台模拟现货杠杆的经济模式,掉期合约的价格将会根据现货价格标算,比如说ETHXBT的价格就是ETH/XBT在P网的现货交易价格。

为了让合约从现货不偏离太远,每周的为实现盈利将会在现货价格实现,容许投资者将盈利部分体现,或者在利润上增加仓位。

 

杠杆?

当然了!BitMEX并不是现货交易所,我们能够在合约上提供极高的杠杆,如果投资者希望交易100XBT总值的ETHXBT,那么每一方需要支付的保证金就是4XBT (则4%,25倍杠杆),为了维持交易所的流动性和减少系统在高波动的时候产生亏损,如果使用最大起始杠杆(25x)的用户在价格波动超过2%,亏损的投资者必须止损离场。有关强制平仓的文档请参阅这里 。

合约会交割吗?

不会。这就是BitMEX合约吸引之处,我们的合约永远不会交割,只要你能够支付日融资费率,而你的合约没有触及强制平仓的位置,你就能够持有仓位。如果你希望平仓,只需要往你建仓相反方向交易下单就能够平仓。意思就是说,多仓的伙伴们做空相同合约就能够平仓;反之空仓的朋友们做多就能平仓。

感受无交割杠杆合约的威力

ETHXBT 是BitMEX第一张无交割掉期合约,让投资者在ETH/XBT的价格上有33倍杠杆,投资者不需要买入以太币就能开始投资,所有利润都是以比特币实现!

坐言起行!

币界新闻择要 – 五月二日

Clef登录和跟踪止损订单

BitMEX与Clef合作,提供Clef登录方法。CLEF是一种创新的帐户验证方式。不再需要提供电子邮件,密码和双重验证码;只需要一个简单的手机应用程序,您就可以安全快速地登录到您的BitMEX帐户。

CLEF完全替代你的整个登录流程 – 不需要再记住你的用户名或密码。它还允许您从您的手机管理您的登录时长。基于这种方法的安全性和控制,如果你CLEF登入我们能够提供长达1个月的登录时长(对比密码登录的1天)。

另外,现在所有投资者可以透过BitMEX的交易界面。追踪止损是与合约价格动态移动的止损单。使用跟踪止损,能够让你更好地管理止盈和止损订单。

发现中本聪?

 

在比特币的世界,Craig Wright声称了自己就是中本聪,不过他并未能够提供确实的证明。现在的证明只是有两个人见证了Wright签署了第1-第9个区块,这个证明对于比特币社群来说真的没有什么用,比特币作为一个能够以数学和密码学证明的社群又怎么会相信这个粗略的“证明”呢?

Wright公布了签名来证明自己的身份。不过他原来是复制了早就公开了的了交易签名数据。毫无疑问,赖特其实只是一个行骗的行为艺术家?这样做对自己和保证他的工作人物负责人吗?

就连《经济学人》都不能应付出版赖特说法的怀疑。我也很惊讶为什么《经济学人》会发布这个毫无根据的股市,这不是自找麻烦吗?

很多比我聪明的人比我都在Reddit(红迪)讨论这个胡扯的新闻。而我反而希望把重点放在价格的影响。

文章和博客文章发表后,比特币稍微下跌。不过因为今天是中国的公众假期,所以市场的反应买有这么大。投资者担心,如果中本聪被认出,政府将迫使他把他的比特币售出来纳税。

Wright是澳大利亚人;利得税只会在实现盈利时收取。如果他的比特币原封不动,他则不需要纳税。即使他真的是中本聪,最坏的东西都不会发生。那些比特币不会被倾倒到市场里。他声称他没有与这些比特币没有关系,塞舌尔的信托才是坐拥这些比特币的主人。

新闻出炉后的暴跌,什么才是最好的交易?在今天下午的暴跌,BitMEX6月期货,XBTM16,的年化利率从65%暴跌到35%,在几个小时内。鉴于在6月期货剩余的时间价值,这是抄底千载难逢的机会。

价格要么崩盘测试$400或迈向$ 500以上。在$400-$500元之间,不少投资者会选择慢慢加仓做多,如果我们继续朝着$ 500上涨,我们会看见更多投资者追多中长期的期货,因为他们认为正确如果该水平被突破,市场将差距更高的积极。

建议:买入6月BitMEX期货,售出比特币现货

券商,你也来啊?

当负利率已经成为了新定律,盈透证券通知了所有用户在账户的日元江湖被收取-0.25%的负年利率。[ZeroHedge] 不过直到现在,普通存户都被不会被收取负利率,只是存银行也不会拿利息而已。

盈透证券是迫于无奈才下这个决定。更多日元会流入实体现金。而不是买入已经被高估的股票,债券,或者在外汇赌场玩。盈透证券进行这项行动,是因为他们的银行开始收取他们负利率了。

黑田通过拒绝进一步的货币刺激措施令市场失望。日本央行货币政策的无能已经引起新的解决方案,以增加消费支出和投资。[Bloomberg]

一项建议指出,向公司的现金余额收取每年2%。虽然预期的结果是员工薪酬或资本支出增加,但这将不会发生。如果公司觉得没有必要增加支出,他们肯定不会公然丢脸丢钱来做这么样的事。

那些公司反而会出售日元并投资于在海外的其他政府债卷。押金税肯定会达到日本央行贬值日元的目标。但是经过万亿日元,从全球投资者所持的证券被抛售后,其他国家也将采取类似的政策来抗衡日元贬值的影响。

日本散户的选择则更加少。如果他们的经纪人开始向他们的现金余额收取利息,他们将寻求会找安全的地方例如保险柜,床底,黄金和甚至电子货币作为他们的避风港。

日本人已经开始投资比特币了。自1月起,Quoine和Bitflyer日均交易量已经翻了一番。日本的政策制定者都注定要失败。印钞再多也不能够修复这个乱局。消费品和能源的通胀率飙升不仅将进一步增加生活负担。比特币将会成为他们其中一个翻身的机会。BitMEX将会和Quoine合作,推出比特币/日元100倍杠杆日交割合约,XBJ24H。不久,各位读者将可以参与在这个市场里面。

中国先知:国有银行

对于任何一个政府最紧迫的问题是如何将融资。通常政府认识到他们可以通过银行系统获得他们市民的资金。

虽然中国政府实际上拥有所有的银行,这并不意味着市民将会把他们的储蓄放到哪里。市民这样做是因为他们希望赚取存款的回报,同时透过现金持有财富是非常艰难的。中国最大面额为100元人民币(约US $15)。有了这样小面额钞票身体,它变得相当难买到的大额商品(汽车,房地产,股票,债券)。因此,公民必须通过政府的银行系统进行交易。

如果你恰好在十年前的中国工作,一个常见的景象将是一个大妈拿着一个装满现金的垃圾袋买昂贵的东西。有没有想过为什么中国人喜欢那些大大的麻布袋?要是你需要拿着一万元或者放在钱包走走你就懂了.

中国信贷量在过去十年大幅上升。 投资失利和坏账的后果是在国有银行中资本外逃和不良贷款额大幅上升(赚到钱的就跑了,呆这里不就是等死?)。

央妈有两个选择:

选择1: 扩展更多的信贷额来延展不良贷款。这将会扩大货币供应量和通货膨胀。历史上,市民就是承担这个通胀的受害者,同时令人民币走弱。此选项将会阻碍中国专营到消费主导的经济的主要政策目标。

选择2: 允许国有企业效率低下的工业破产。央妈指示国有银行不再允许延长信贷。此选项将会做成大量失业。沿海不少城镇区域的失业人士将会再一次返回农村。此选项将会令社会动荡,投资者在工业企业的股权和债权将变得一文不值。

作为一个外国人并不太了解常委会的内部工作,我只能通过各种国有公司的行为,特别是银行,了解央妈的意图。

国有银行的管理人员现在面对着一个大难题。他们必须在同一时间为他们的投资者取悦决策人。四大银行(工行,中国,中国建设银行和中国农业银行的银行),预计每年将显示净利润增长。中国正在成长,银行应该越来越赚钱。银行家们会想尽一切办法,以令年增长最大化。

中国工商银行和中国银行最近公布盈利增长;然而,完成这一壮举,他们不得不违反政府规定的150%不良贷款拨备覆盖率。 除非当权人默许,他们不会违反这些要求。

看来央妈选择了选项1:无声但致命的通胀税。这证实了我的观点,即人民币将贬值。与人行是否主动贬值无关。随着中国储户活期存款获得较少,他们将会更愿意冒险。我们可以看到最近在房地产,大宗商品,黄金和白银交易的影响。

资金将会流入稀缺的的资产,抵押,或商品,对比人民币的价格节节上升。而电子货币与哦会再一次被投资者重新定义为避险的好工具。虽然中国人民银行透过停止贬值来减少大家的注意。不过这些政策行动将透过其他比较不显眼的渠道传输,看得见的人就走运了

减少外借的交易对手风险

比特币在P网贷款利率曾经超过每天1%。有一件事令许多投资者从Poloniex撤资的就是对手风险。你全部资本都是在冒险。使用新的BitMEX P2P的融资产品,投资者将能够在更小的风险下赚取同样的利率。

方法:

  1. 存入比特币作为保证金
  2. 做空ETHXBT, BitMEX P2P 融资合约.
  3. 用比特币买入以太币.
  4. 好好保管你的以太币

卖家能够获取利率,而买家则需要支付P2P融资的利率。

由于25X ETHXBT杠杆作用,您只需要持有与BitMEX位置值的4%。而不是你资本的100%,冒险的资金只有4%。不但一分钱都不需要存在P网上,你也能够赚取较高的贷款利率。

当P2P合约延伸到其他合约如比特币合约时,你同样能够以小资金来获取利息的利润。

关于ETHXBT的上市日期将会在不久的将来公布。一如既往,我们希望大家提供意见来让这个合约更加切合大家的需求。您可以立即注册一个测试网账号来试试看。

Crypto Trader Digest – May 2

Clef Integration And Trailing Stops

BitMEX has partnered with Clef. Clef is an innovative way of account verification. Gone are emails, passwords, and 2FA; with just one simple phone app, you can log into your BitMEX account securely and quickly.

Clef completely replaces your entire login – no more username or password to remember. It also allows you to manage your session length from your phone. With the security & control of this approach, we are able to offer a session length of up to 1 month (up from 1 day) if you manage your session with Clef.

In other news, Trailing Stops are now available through the BitMEX UI. A Trailing Stop is a Stop order that moves dynamically with the price of the contract. Use Trailing Stops to better manage take profit and stop loss orders.

Just A Pale Cherub

Daenerys returned to the Dothraki after hitting the dessert buffet, hard, sans dragons. In the presence of the Khal she claimed to be the mother of dragons. He laughed in her face. She was more a pale cherub than the Khaleesi.

In Bitcoin, the same has happened today – without the theme song. Craig Wright claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto, but his proof remains elusive. We are to believe that two dudes witnessed Craig sign block #1 and #9. There is nothing more antithetical to Bitcoin than this. A community based on mathematical proof & cryptography is supposed to just believe two dudes saw Craig do the the dirty.

Wright put forward a signature to prove his identity. It turned out to be copy+pasted from public signature data available from very early blockchain transactions. Is there any question that Wright is a scam artist? What does this say about the very public figures that are vouching for him?

Even the Economist couldn’t hold back extreme skepticism of Wright’s assertions. I am surprised they even ran such a weak story. A painful retraction is inevitable.

Much smarter people than myself are waging successful war on this flimflam story on Reddit. I want to focus on the price implications.

After the articles and blog posts were published, Bitcoin received the stick. Today is a Chinese public holiday so volumes are muted. Traders are afraid that if Satoshi is outed, a government will force him to sell his stash to pay taxes.

Wright is Australian; capital gains taxes are assessed once the asset is sold. If they just sit there, then no tax is due. But even if he really is Satoshi, the thing traders fear most will not happen. Those coins will not be dumped any time soon. He claims he doesn’t have access to them, a Seychelles trust does.

After the initial shock, what is the best trade? During this afternoon’s pukefest, BitMEX June futures, XBTM16, got slaughtered. The % basis PA went from 65% to 35% in a matter of hours. Given the remaining time value in the June futures, this is a golden opportunity to buy low.

The price will either collapse testing $400, or continue the upward ascent towards $500. At the $400 level, bottom feeders will aggressively buy cheap longer dated futures contracts. If we continue towards $500, traders will FOMO into June futures because they rightly believe if that level is breached, the market will gap higher aggressively.

The trade is to buy BitMEX June futures, XBTM16, vs. short sell spot Bitcoin.

Et Tu, Broker?

The NIRP hydra slithered into a new market recently. Interactive Brokers notified all holders of JPY cash balances that they will be charged 0.25% per annum on cash balances. [ZeroHedge] Deposit holders until now were mostly shielded from the effects of NIRP. While they earned nothing at the bank, at least they weren’t charged outright.

Interactive Brokers cannot be happy about this decision. Even more Yen will flow into physical cash. It will not be used to purchased overvalued equities, bonds, or speculate in the FX casino. Interactive Brokers undertook this action because their bank began NIRP’ing them.

Koruda-san disappointed markets greatly by denying further monetary stimulus. The ineffectiveness of the BOJ’s monetary policy in Japan has elicited new solutions to increase consumer spending and investing. [Bloomberg] A wealth tax on inert corporate cash is the new trial balloon being floated.

One proposal states that corporations be charged 2% per annum on cash balances. While the intended outcome is for increased spending on salaries and or CAPEX, this will certainly not happen. If corporates didn’t feel Japanese business conditions warranted increased spending before, they certainly won’t in the face of blatant expropriation.

Corporates will sell JPY and invest in any corporate or government backed debt instrument internationally. A deposit tax will certainly accomplish the BOJ’s goal of a weaker Yen. However after trillions of Yen crowd out other global investors from positively yielding securities, other countries will adopt similar policies lest their currency appreciate too greatly vs. the Yen (read China and Europe).

Retail Japanese investors possess fewer options than rich corporates. If their favorite broker begins charging them for cash balances, they will seek out safes, mattresses, gold, and alternative digital assets (read Bitcoin).

Mrs. Wantanabe is trading Bitcoin. Her trading activity is increasing. Average daily volumes at Quoine and Bitflyer have doubled since January. Japanese policy-makers are fighting a losing battle. No amount of money printing will fix a dying population. The surging inflation for consumer goods and energy will only retard family formation further. But try they must, and Bitcoin / Yen is quickly becoming a pair to watch. In cooperation with BitMEX, Quoine is launching Bitcoin / Yen 100x leveraged daily futures contract, XBJ24H. It is nearing completion. Soon anyone with Bitcoin will be able to participate in this market.

The Oracle Of Beijing: SOE Banks

The most pressing concern for any government is how to finance itself. Usually governments recognise they can acquire the savings of their subjects via the banking system. The government bestows economic rents upon banks, who in return are mandated to hold a certain percentage of funds in government bonds. Fragile By Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit by Charles W. Calomiris and Stephen H. Haber is an excellent book that describes the relationship between the form of government and the evolution of a country’s banking system.

While the Chinese government essentially owns all the banks, that doesn’t mean that citizens will place their savings with them. Citizens do so because they earn a return on deposits, and holding wealth in cash is very tough. The largest denomination in China is 100 CNY (about US$15). With such small denomination physical bills, it becomes quite difficult to buy big ticket items (cars, property, stocks, bonds) in cash. Thus citizens must transact through the government banking system.

If you happened to live or work in China a decade ago, a common sight would be an auntie lugging around a trash bag full of cash to buy an expensive good. Ever wonder why Chinese love man-bags? Try carrying around 10,000 CNY in cash; it’s quite tough using a traditional wallet.

China extended a gargantuan amount of credit over the past decade. Malinvestment and outright theft was rife. The consequences are rising non-performing loans (NPLs) at state-owned banks (SOE) banks, and capital flight (those who enriched themselves are getting out while they can).

Beijing has two options to deal with the issue.

Option 1: Extend more credit to roll-over the bad loans. This expands the money supply and creates inflation. Historically the citizenry bears this inflation tax through lower real-yields on banking deposits, and a weaker CNY. This option retards the transformation of China into a more consumer lead economy, which is a major policy goal of Beijing.

Option 2: Allow inefficient SOE industrial companies to go bankrupt. Beijing instructs the SOE banks to extend no further credit. This option creates massive unemployment. The masses of workers who migrated from rural inland farms to the vibrant coast will be cast back into the poor hinterland. This options creates social unrest, and investors in industrial firms’ equity and debt get bageled. When the elites and the poor have a common cause, watch out.

As a foreigner not privy to the inner workings of the standing committee, I can only glean Beijing’s intentions through the actions of various SOE companies, especially the banks.

Managers of SOE banks have a tough gig. They must please Beijing at the same time as their investors, both domestic and foreign. The big four banks (ICBC, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China) are expected to show net profit growth each year. China is growing, the banks should be making more and more money. Bankers will do anything, cut any corners, fudge any accounting ratios in order to show YoY growth.

ICBC and Bank of China recently reported a growth in earnings; however to accomplish this feat, they had to breach the government mandated 150% bad-loan provision coverage. [Bloomberg] The C-suite managers are party officials; they would not breach these requirements unless Beijing tacitly approved.

It appears Beijing chose Option 1: the silent but deadly inflation tax. This confirms my view that the CNY will depreciate implicitly internally or explicitly externally. Whether the PBOC depreciates the CNY outright is irrelevant. As Chinese savers receive less on demand deposits, they will move out on the risk curve. We can see the effects of that in real estate, commodities, gold, and silver trading recently.

Any scarce money good asset, collateral, or commodity that can be purchased with a depreciating CNY will rocket higher in price. The whole digital currency complex will be re-rated higher as desperate Chinese savers do anything to preserve purchasing power. While the PBOC deflected attention from the CNY by halting the outward depreciation, watch the banks. Beijing’s policy actions will be transmitted through their favourite conduit. Those who listen will be made rich.

Earning Swap Rates With Less Counterparty Risk

Bitcoin lending rates on Poloniex were over 1% per day when Ether was pumping earlier this year. The one thing that kept many traders from lending more Bitcoin on Poloniex was counterparty risk. 100% of your capital was at risk. Using the new BitMEX P2P swap product, traders will be able to earn the swap rate with less counterparty risk.

Trade Mechanics:

  1. Deposit Bitcoin as margin on BitMEX.
  2. Sell ETHXBT, the BitMEX P2P swap product.
  3. Sell Bitcoin, and buy Ether.
  4. Store your Ether securely.

Sellers of the ETHXBT contract receive the Poloniex Bitcoin borrow rate and pay the Ether borrow rate. Because the Bitcoin rate was higher than the Ether rate, ETHXBT sellers would receive daily income in Bitcoin.

The long ETH position is used to hedge the short ETHXBT position. When the daily interest received falls below your required rate of return, buy back the ETHXBT contracts and sell Ether for Bitcoin.

Due to the 25x ETHXBT leverage, you are only required to hold 4% of the value of the position with BitMEX. Rather than 100% of your capital being at risk, only 4% is. Even though not one Satoshi is held with Poloniex, you can still earn the high lending rates.

Once the BitMEX swap structure is live on all products, the trade can be done with USD and Bitcoin. Instead of lending USD on Bitfinex and placing 100% of your capital at risk, you can achieve the same economics with as little as 1% of your capital at risk on BitMEX.

More announcements about the launch date of ETHXBT will be forthcoming. As always, we appreciate feedback on how we can make this product better. You can trade a free beta version today on Testnet.

Risk Disclaimer

BitMEX is not a licensed financial advisor. The information presented in this newsletter is an opinion, and is not purported to be fact. Bitcoin is a volatile instrument and can move quickly in any direction. BitMEX is not responsible for any trading loss incurred by following this advice.

币界新闻择要 – 四月二十五日

共识2016

我们的业务发展部经理 Greg Dwyer,将在五月二日至五月四日于纽约。虽然他不会参加这次会议,不过他仍希望能够与各位在纽约的币粉们交流,尤其是各位出席 《共识2016》的朋友们。如果希望跟Greg见面,欢迎电邮我们安排见面

关于BitMEX P2P 融资合约

上个月我们概述了我们新的P2P融资产品后,我们从各位投资者收集到很好的意见。我们亦希望回答各位的常见问题。

总括来说:我们正在建立一个新的产品类型,我们称之为P2P融资合约。它的目的是交易就像 法币/电子货币 交易平台的融资融券,但具有较高的杠杆,而且整个交易只涉及比特币。

这款产品将大大简化了我们原有的产品,而且能够巩固流动性。相反,现在五个比特币的期货合约各有不同的到期时间,规则,杠杆率和订单簿,分薄了整体的流动性,而这个新合约将能够整合现在不同合约的流动性,收窄买卖点差。

同时,这个合约不会到期,我们的合约有独特的机制来维持合约与鲜活的价差,并同时提供高杠杆和随意多空的自由度

现在我们常见的问题:

谁去决定每日融资费率?

融资费率是由第三方的自由市场决定,现在我们推出了了ETHXBT P2P融资合约则是根据Poloniex (p网) 的融资费率而定。

买卖都需要付融资费?

买家需要付 报价货币(BTC)和基础货币(ETH)贷款利率之间的差额。卖家,它是相反的。例如,现在Poloniex的XBT贷款利率为0.0382%,ETH贷款利率为0.0209%。做多的投资者将支付的融资费率将是 0.0382%-0.0209%= 0.0173%/天

 

融资费率能够预先知道吗?

融资费率会在24小时前公布,融资费率将会是24小时前的24小时融资费率。

怎样确保融资费率能够与市场一致?

这个合约每周都会有盈利实现制度,确保期货合约会维持与现货市场相约的水平,持有未实现盈利的永辉能够在每周末提现或者使用盈利添加杠杆仓位,这个盈利实现制度模拟了期货的交割制度,确保期货价格与市场一致

这个合约如何应用在双币种合约?

当我们开始应用这个新P2P融资合约的时候,我们将会把它应用在对冲性合约。每手合约价值将是1美金等值的比特币,合约美金收益是线性的。这样做的目的是为了有一个就像现货的合约,而附有BitMEX用户喜欢的高杠杆。

6月和9月的期货合约怎么处理

那些合约将会继续交易,而交割后将不会继续挂牌,我们未来期待每一个合约只会有一张合约,这样能够集中流动性。

德拉吉的魔法

曾几何时,德拉吉只会将他的救济资金给拿着欧盟区债卷的银行,不过上任了这么久,普通的救济措施已经满足不到德拉吉的胃口了,他需要更加强的政策来维持欧元区的稳定,现在任何公司能够透过银行的债务资本市场获得德拉吉的资金。

这个天掉的馅饼只要你伸手出来就能抓住了:

  1. 在任何地方成立一家公司
  2. 去找一家投资银行在欧元区设立一个会发债的特殊目的实体
  3. 等待欧洲央行买你的债卷
  4. 将欧洲央行给你的钱换成其他你想要的东西,比如说你居住国家的货币

这个政策达成了两个目的

Goal 1: 找到一个新的地方买入债卷

Goal 2: 将欧元贬值

德拉吉的措施基本上就是向全世界进行量宽,现在日本、美国、中国等各地的央行将会做出反应,而反应最大的定必是日本和中国,因为中日欧三国都是竞争性的出口国,而人行的目的已经很清楚——对比其他竞争出口国更大幅的贬值。

美联储和日本央行都会在这个星期开会。鉴于日本央行的紧急情况,市场预期一些令人震惊的政策会出现。欧洲央行在最近的行动肯定会影响他们的下一个的疯狂印钞方案。

疲软的欧元和日元迫使人行采取竞争性的贬值措施,经过一月的贬值,人行现在正在养精蓄锐,在下次美国联署局减息的时候再次开动贬值的引擎。

如果人民币贬值,比特币也能够从中受惠,500美金一颗的比特币在人民币大幅贬值的前提下基本上都是确定的结果了

参考资料 : The SPV Loophole: Draghi Just Unleashed “QE For The Entire World”… And May Have Bailed Out US Shale

暴风前夕

上个礼拜比特币的波动大幅上升,从430大幅上涨到470美金,上涨了差不多一成,技术上我们基本上已经差不多达到先前的阻力位置,之这钱上试3000CNY的阻力失败后跟随着的就是大幅的下跌。在上年年末上见$475后随之回到$350。不过我们成功突破后可以上望$680的区域,是2013年的比特币疯潮的关键位置。

然而,这近期上涨的交易量不大,代表比较少追涨的交易量,反而是在基本面上导致的。似乎是最相关的在测试网的隔离见证所挖出的矿块有所增大,驱使币圈再次对Core 跟 Classic 的争议 。

关于比特币减半的讨论也在升温与搜寻趋势显示兴趣在上升。在2013年的比特币减半让比特币大幅反弹,当然我们也可以将这个上涨归咎于其他原因,例如丝绸之路。未来的走势难以做出肯定的预测,未来的需求必须大于供应才能够让比特币价格上涨,而我认为这个现象还没有发生。

从这种波动中获利的最佳方法莫过于从基准差中获利。在BitMEX上市的远期期货合约的基础利率已经从年化50%左右跃升之年息水平超过90%。历史上,这些数值仍然是偏低,因此,如果我们看到超过3000元被突破,期待比特币价格和远期利率继续攀高。一个基差交易的方法将是做多九月期货,并同时做空短期的合约,如日交割或周交割期货,这样就能够从市场的恐慌中获利,而且不会受到比特币价格往相反方向大幅波动导致亏损甚至爆仓。

祝大家投资顺利!

Crypto Trader Digest – Apr 25

Consensus 2016

Our Manager of Business Development, Greg Dwyer, will be in New York during the Consensus conference from May 2-4. While he won’t be attending the conference, he is free to meet with anyone who is in the city. Please get in contact with us (simply reply to this email) to arrange a meeting.

Questions About BitMEX P2P Swaps

After outlining our new P2P swap product, we received great feedback from a number of traders. There were a few common questions that I want to address.

To recap: We are looking at a new type of product we call a P2P Swap. It is designed to trade just like margin trading on Fiat/Crypto platforms, but with higher leverage and entirely in Bitcoin.

A move to this product would greatly simplify our product offerings and consolidate liquidity. Instead of splitting liquidity among five Bitcoin contracts, each with different expiries, rules, leverage, and orderbooks, we would consolidate into a single market per currency pair.

This instrument would not expire, but has a number of mechanisms designed to make it trade in-line with spot, while also emulating the same basis that short- and long-dated futures enjoy.

The questions we have seen so far:

Who determines the daily funding rate?

The funding rates are determined in the free market on margin trading platforms. For our first product ETHXBT, the Bitcoin and Ether funding rate is provided by Poloniex.

Do both buyers and sellers pay?

Buyers pay interest on the difference between the quote currency (XBT) and base currency (ETH) lending rates. For sellers, it is reversed. For example, the XBT lending rate on Poloniex at the time of writing is 0.0382%, and the ETH lending rate is 0.0209%. Longs would pay shorts 0.0173%/day

Is the funding rate known in advance?

Yes. The rate for the next 24 hours is determined by the average rate over the preceding 24 hour period.

How do we ensure the swap is anchored to spot?

The mechanism that forces the swap to trade around the spot price is the weekly cash rebalance. Those with unrealised profit will be able to withdraw or re-leverage their gains each week. The explicit realisation of the cash profit will act as a pseudo delivery mechanism for the performance of the underlying asset.

How would this product behave on the quanto Bitcoin futures contracts?

When we apply this structure to our Bitcoin products, we will launch it using the inverse style payout. Each contract will be worth $1 of Bitcoin. The USD exposure is linear, which will eliminate the need to price perpetual upside gamma risk. The aim is to have a product that acts like spot, but has the leverage that BitMEX users have come to love.

What will happen to the longer dated June and September futures contracts?

These contracts will continue to trade, and will expire on schedule. The current plan is to have only one product per underlying. This will concentrate liquidity, and improve the trading experience for everyone.

Draghi’s Blue Magic

Once upon a time, Draghi would only sell his monetary heroin to EU banks who held beaten up EU sovereign bonds. That worked for a few years, but the junkies needed something more pure. Now any company that, with the help of an altruistic bank Debt Capital Markets desk (plus a few points on the package), can obtain Draghi’s new Blue Magic. Frank Lukas would be proud.

The road to free money is quite simple.

  1. Be a company located anywhere.
  2. Pay a structuring desk to set up a Special Purpose Vehicle in Europe that will issue the bonds.
  3. Wait for ECB to buy your debt.
  4. Take your newly minted Euros and sell them for the domestic currency you desire.

The ECB accomplishes two goals:

Goal 1: Finding a new pool of debt to buy; as hard as it is to believe, the ECB was running out of government bonds that it could legally purchase.

Goal 2: Weaken the Euro.

Draghi unleashed the QE World, and now the Fed, BOJ, and PBOC must respond. The most drastic actions will come from the BOJ and PBOC. China, Europe, and Japan are export competitors. The PBOC has been very clear that it intends to weaken the Yuan vs. its major trading partners.

The Fed and BOJ both meet this week. Given the desperation of the BOJ, the market is expecting something shocking. The recent actions by the ECB will definitely affect their next insane money printing scheme.

The one-two punch of a weaker Euro and Yen will push the PBOC back into action. After aggressively weakening the Yuan in January, the PBOC took a breather. A rate hike by the fed would be the icing on the cake. The PBOC would have no choice by the slash the Yuan.

The PBOC could also enlarge its balance sheet and explicitly assume the vast amount of NPLs of industrial companies held by state owned banks. If European companies get free money from the ECB, why shouldn’t Mao’s children obtain similar terms from the PBOC?

A cheaper Yuan is rocket fuel for Bitcoin. The China Bitcoin premium contracted alongside an appreciating Yuan. $500 is a foregone conclusion if the PBOC goes nuclear once more.

The SPV Loophole: Draghi Just Unleashed “QE For The Entire World”… And May Have Bailed Out US Shale

It’s Coming

What a week this past week in Bitcoin trading has been. Moving from 430 to a FOMO seen on Bitstamp up to 470 (approx. 9.3% return). Technically we are approaching some key support/resistance levels, the first of which is the 3,000 CNY level which we failed to break over the weekend. Previous recent attempts to break these levels resulted in sharp drops down. December saw a breakout up to $475 only to be rejected and a few weeks later we were back in $350 territory. Past this and some eyes are on the other key level of $680, being the support/resistance level after the 2013 pump and dump.

However this recent rise up has been on less volume, suggesting less FOMOing and more of a fundamental movement. What seems to be the most correlated is the news of the recent larger mined blocks on the Segregated Witness Testnet bringing back into discussion the Core vs Classic debate and perhaps some consensus towards a final goal.

The discussion about the Bitcoin Halving is also heating up, with Google Trends showing the interest is on the rise. The previous halving in 2013 showed a decent rally in Bitcoin, however one can attribute this rise to reasons outside the halving such as Silk Road. The reaction to this coming event I feel will be more unknown, demand still needs to outstrip the supply of coins already in existence for there to be an economic reason for a price rise, and it doesn’t seem to be there just yet.

The best way to play this volatility is to put bets on the basis levels in futures. Recently the basis on the longer dated June and September futures listed on BitMEX has jumped from around 50% p.a. levels to over 90% p.a. currently. Historically these are still low, and thus if we see a breakout above 3,000 CNY, expect these to rise higher. A basis trade would be to long September and short one of the closer expiry contracts such as the daily or weekly, this way you are hedged and playing the FOMO on the curve.

As always, happy trading!

Risk Disclaimer

BitMEX is not a licensed financial advisor. The information presented in this newsletter is an opinion, and is not purported to be fact. Bitcoin is a volatile instrument and can move quickly in any direction. BitMEX is not responsible for any trading loss incurred by following this advice.

币界新闻择要 – 四月十八日

#赢家#

BitMEX团队上周到了新加坡参加TechInAsia的聚会,我们在DBS星展金融科技比赛和Arena比赛中占一席位,为我们很庆幸我们在两个比赛中胜利,我们希望籍此感谢一直支持我们的各位,宣扬比特币的应用是一件我们引以为傲的事。

BitMEX beats 475 startups to win Tech in Asia Singapore Arena

P2P借贷 — 简化BitMEX的下一步

期货这个概念对于不少新手来说可能是一个比较难触摸的概念,加上所有交割时间、不同的合约的称号等等只令期货变得更复杂。我们决定创立一个类似于保证金交易,不过能够提供高杠杆的交易工具来对应投资者的需求。而经过几个月的研究,我们的解决方法是:无交割P2P借贷。

工具简介

这个工具是一个合成的交易工具,而其设计让价格能够紧贴传统的保证金交易

在每天GMT12:00(中国时间晚上8时),持有多仓的每天需要付融资费率,而做空的则能够获得该融资费率。而融资费率是由一个指标决定,而费率是以比特币收取。

融资费率 = 仓位数量 * 每日每比特币仓位融资费率(根据指数而定)

未实现盈亏和爆仓将会根据现货指标的价格来计算或执行,而在每周五的交割时间,任何分摊将会被清算,所有未实现盈利将会被实现并容许提现。

优势

无交割的投资工具,这个合成合约的日融资费用(或返现)能够模拟期货合约的溢价,你所付出(或收取)的费用与你持有仓位的大小和时长成正比。

作为一个显著的优势是流动性将会集中在同一个合约,而非像期货分散到不同的合约上,这样能够显著改善流动性问题,集中化平台的流动性。任何重复挂牌的合约在P2P借贷合约上线后将不会重新挂牌。

对比与现货保证金交易,BitMEXP2P合约将能够提供更高的杠杆,更大的融资限额而且逻辑更加简单,因为“借贷”只是人工合成的,现实并没有比特币或者法币需要换手,所有的货币交易只是比特币。

P2P 以太币借贷, ETHXBT

以太币将会是我们挂牌P2P借贷融资合约的品种,买入和卖出ETHXBT P2P融资合约只需要比特币作为保证金,而融资费率将会根据Poloniex(p网)的融资费率而定,而做空合约的将会获得相应份额的比特币。.

合约的指标价格将会是 P网现货 ETHBTC的价格,而每周交割时间(周五 中国时间晚上8时)将会是结算(并非交割,此合约并不会交割)的时间,未实现盈利和任何分摊将会被实现。

ETHXBT现在已经挂牌在  BitMEX 测试网,欢迎各位提供意见。

Airbnb的致命弱点,它的比特币的解决方案

Airbnb激活了未充分利用的住宅物业的最大价值。很多酒店和宾馆因为Airbnb抢了他们的住宿需求而感到沮丧。

这些酒店宾馆的业主试图透过游说政府选择强制不必要的和不必要的法律吓唬Airbnb的业主。不过,业主所赚取的金额实在太吸引,大部分都直接无视了。

Airbnb 、 Uber(优步)等都是打破传统的创新科技,不过致命弱点是 —- 支付媒介(资金链)。

不幸的是,Airbnb和Uber必须依靠银行和其他金融机构处理支付主机和驱动程序。如果监管机构某天晚上来个电话给他们,明天他们的价值就会直接归零。

Operation Choke Point (瓶颈行动)是美国司法部的部门采用来针对非法行业的一个非常成功的战略。它已经成功地在游戏,成人娱乐,和大麻行业使用这个策略。

这些行业获得合作银行几乎是不可能的事。这样说,他们基本上只能依赖现金,导致营运上困难,而且限制了电子商务方面增长。

Airbnb 踏出了重要的一步来解决这个问题,他们收购并聘用了ChangeCoin(在红迪Reddit上打赏机器人的开发公司)。他们很可能利用Chagecoin的人才来实现使用比特币或其他数字货币更安全的付款方式。如果用户在使用支付像比特币的电子货币来支付,Airbnb和类似的公司将能够有多一重保险,而且有更多增长。

比特币的杀手级应用其实就是我们一直都在使用,如果Airbnb这些公司能够应用良好的UI和用户体验来将他们的产品与比特币结合,比特币的应用率将会节节上升。任何打破传统产业的科技都应该注意一下资金流断裂应该有什么后备或应变方向。

直到你不能再拒绝

以太币: 真够刺激

以太币从0.025ETH/BTC下跌到0.0165ETH/BTC,回调到0.021.这个回调可能是因为有人流传OKCOIN将会加入ETH交易配对,但是他们很快就在推特否认有关传言。

如果你觉得似曾相识,那么就是BitFinex也说了类似的否认公告,但是在大概两个礼拜之后就挂牌了ETH。那两个礼拜究竟发生了什么事呢?从他们否认挂牌到挂牌的时候(2月25日 – 3月12日),以太币的价格从0.015BTC上升到0.035BTC一个 (133%上升)。

如果说我在虚拟货币市场学会了什么,我学会的就是在传言来的时候梭哈,真的新闻出来的时候平仓。这可能就是一个买入以太币的机会(假设OKCOIN打算挂牌以太币)。而且对于他们也蛮合乎逻辑啊,现在主流的外国交易所都挂牌了以太币,而且对比莱特币的交易量是20倍有多[CoinMarketCap]。

 

谈及技术分析,我们正在进入一个在有趣的区域,是长期和短期趋势的交叉。 0.02 ETH / BTC正是这些范围的接合点;这将是有趣的一周,看看我们会不会上破吧。我对于OKCoin传闻感到乐观。无论是做多还是做空,明智地使用限价止损订单是我的建议。

Crypto Trader Digest – Apr 18

#Winning

The BitMEX team travelled down to Singapore for Tech In Asia’s Singapore conference. We won a spot to pitch at the DBS FinTech Battle and Area Battle.

We won both competitions. Thank you to everyone reading this who saw us pitch. It is a great thing to spread awareness about Bitcoin.

BitMEX beats 475 startups to win Tech in Asia Singapore Arena

Simplifying BitMEX with Peer-To-Peer Swaps

Futures contracts are confusing to many crypto traders. The various expiry dates and ticker symbols only add to the complexity. How can we create an instrument that feels like spot or margin trading, but has the high leverage that traders desire? We’ve been spending the last months working on a solution: a P2P swap without expiry.

Product Description

This product is a synthetic instrument designed to follow traditional margin trading as closely as possible.

Each day at 12:00 GMT, long holders pay a daily funding rate, and short holders receive a daily funding rate. The rate is determined by the funding index. The funding is paid in Bitcoin.

Funding Bitcoin Payment = Bitcoin Notional * Daily Funding Rate

The product is marked to the underlying spot price for the purpose of unrealised PNL (profit and loss) and liquidations. Each Friday at 12:00 GMT, rebalancing occurs. At a rebalance, unrealised PNL becomes realised PNL; any profit adjustment will be applied as well.

Advantages

Expiries are gone. The synthetic interest-bearing structure emulates futures contracts of any expiry. The basis you pay or receive is equal to the length that you hold the contract.

As a significant bonus, liquidity will no longer be spread across various maturities. This should significantly improve our XBT series, which currently has 5 expiries. Note that if and when we roll this structure out to the XBT series, existing long-dated contracts will remain active until expiry. At expiry, to concentrate liquidity, they will not relist.

Compared to margin trading on other platforms, BitMEX P2P swaps will provide increased leverage, deeper funding limits, and greater simplicity. Because all lending is synthetic, no crypto or fiat needs to change hands, nor do users need to use any currency other than Bitcoin.

P2P Ether Swap, ETHXBT

Ether will see first iteration of this new product type. Buyers of ETHXBT will post Bitcoin as margin, and pay a daily funding rate based on the previous 24 hour average Poloniex Bitcoin offer rate. Sellers will receive the Bitcoin funding that buyers pay each day.

The contract will be marked to the Ether / Bitcoin Poloniex spot rate. Each Friday at 12:00 GMT, the unrealised PNL will be realised at the Ether / Bitcoin Poloniex spot rate.

ETHXBT is currently live on BitMEX Testnet. We welcome all user feedback on how to improve this new product.

In Other News: Airbnb’s Achilles Heel, and its Bitcoin Solution

Airbnb has unlocked a vast amount of value in underused residential properties. Much to the dismay of the hotel and guesthouse industry, travelers are flocking to Airbnb for their accommodation needs.

The incumbents fight Airbnb through antiquated guest house ordinances. They attempt to scare hosts by lobbying the government to selectively enforce unneeded and unwanted laws. Unfortunately the value gained by hosting is too large for hosts to stop.

Companies like Airbnb and Uber are disruptive, but they have one giant achilles heel: payments.

Unfortunately, Airbnb and Uber must rely on banks and other financial institutions to process the payments to hosts and drivers. All it takes is a call from a government regulator or banks, and the party stops. Overnight their businesses could be worth zero.

Operation Choke Point is a very successful strategy that the US Department of Justice uses against industries that are not illegal, but the government disapproves of. It has successfully used these strategies on the Gaming, Adult Entertainment, and Cannabis sectors.

It is almost impossible for businesses operating in these industries to obtain banking partners. As a result, they are cash heavy and their growth is curtailed.

Airbnb took the right step towards addressing this problem through their aqui-hire of ChangeCoin [Business Insider]. It is likely that they will use the acquired talent to implement a more secure form of payment using Bitcoin or another digital currency. If customers pay using a decentralized currency like BItcoin, Airbnb and similar companies can grow much larger.

The killer app for Bitcoin is something we already use daily. If companies like Airbnb can use their UX/UI skills to make paying with Bitcoin seamless and painless, adoption of Bitcoin and other crypto currencies will explode. Any marketplace app that is disrupting an entrenched incumbent should take notice, and begin thinking about how they will solve a payments halt.

Deny Until You Don’t

Ether: What a ride!

Price action was on a one way trip down from 0.025 ETH/BTC to a low of 0.0165, only to drift upwards to the 0.021. The drift upwards could be attributed to the rumour that OKCoin will add ETH for trading. They have since released a statement on Twitter denying this.

If you are feeling déjà vu, it’s because BitFinex released a similar denial announcement back in February only to list ETH for trading about two weeks later. What happened to the price in that time? Leading up to the denial from BitFinex, the price rose 50%; from their denial to actual listing (Feb 25 – Mar 12), the price went from 0.015 to a peak of 0.035 (133% return).

If there is one rule that I have learnt in the Crypto market it’s to FOMO ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’. This could present a good opportunity to buy ETH before OKCoin decides to list it (if in fact they do). It makes sense for them, since it is listed on almost every other exchange now; furthermore it trades 20x more volume than LTC [CoinMarketCap].

Turning to technical analysis, we are entering an interesting zone here where the long-term and short-term trend ranges cross. 0.02 ETH/BTC is where these ranges intersect; it will be interesting over the next week to see where we break out. I am feeling bullish given the OKCoin rumour. Whether going long or short, judicious use of Stop Limit Orders is advised.

币界新闻择要 – 四月十一日

Tech In Asia – 星加坡 2016

如果你们是在x星加坡的话,BitMEX将会在星加坡TechInAsia的峰会摆摊并上台推广,有空的话我们很希望能够看到你们过来逛一下。

时间安排如下:

四月十二日: 金融科技展场, 13:00 – 14:30

四月十三日: 主会场, 15:00 – 16:30

愛之夏: 欧洲2016

先说一下,荷兰人拒绝了一个 欧盟和乌克兰更紧密关系合约。然而,即使在大量群众反对的情况下,他们的声音基本上都已经被无视了。欧盟的主席Jean-Claude Juncker表示 “我们会继续与乌克兰紧密合作进行发展。”[路透]

就像希腊的情况,群众的立场如果不是和掌权人的立场一致,基本上市民的意愿都会被无视。

你有张良计我有过墙梯,希腊的总理就开始耍流氓,拒绝欧洲央行、国际货币组织和世界银行救济的前设要求,其中包括拒绝加税和减少部分福利。下面是希腊在这个夏季的还款时间表。

 

巴克莱银行已经开始希腊退欧的危言。他们警告说,2016年是希腊退欧再次会受瞩目的一年。而且上周提过的国际货币组织对话泄漏事件也对欧洲没有任何好处。

这场动荡的剧本已经大致看到了,希腊人现在终于发恼,跟大家说不能再接受紧缩政策下的生活,而欧洲央行和德国央行却坚定地要就实行紧缩政策。投资者纷纷撤离这些高风险的地区,结果令央行实行更多的紧缩措施,希望重新带来稳定。

一个新方案提出让希腊人的保证这个方案,而方案则会让欧洲央行、国际货币组织和世界银行向希腊提供资金“援助”,不过这些“援助”只能用以偿还对这三家组织的利息。

对比特币的影响?

当欧盟到了“糟了,欧盟今次要死了”的阶段,比特币会成为市场部分避险资金的流向。如果2016年是有类似于2015年的事件走势,当希腊的问题成功解决后,比特币又会重回解放前。

2016年是有趣的一年,欧盟里面比较有钱的一个成员国——英国,对于是否退欧投票,而我们预测的结果是不会发生,现在英国退欧的几率大概为33%

当我们接近六月时,形势可能会急速逆转,我们不能无视潜在的难民危机,所以大家准备好迎接波动吧,这个夏天比特币将变回我们曾经熟悉的猛虎。

美元/日元 (USDJPY): 我选择波动

如果你还没有看过权力的游戏的第六季的预告片,请花几分钟时间来看一下 。限制器USDJPY的投资者所承受的痛楚还真让我联想起Cersei’s 跟High Septon的一战。

对于耶伦嬷嬷决定加息,黑田应该喜出望外,因为能够令日元继续走弱,而且不需要费日本央行分毫。不幸的是,美国联储局已经开始违背原本的承诺,进一步提高利率。许多投资者认为一个温和的美联署又回来了,而且利率在本年末会进一步下降至0甚至负利率。

这些的政策所导致的结果就是日元汇率会继续走强,日经指数下降。同时对于日本央行的烦恼就是在负利率的情况下谁会成为拿着现金承受负利率的一群,现在日本的一万円纸币已经需要加印来应付现钞的需求 [日本时报]. 安倍晋三和黑田当然不会坐以待毙,日本正重新启动他们非竞争性贬值的路向,因为你要知道央行随便说一句话都比他们干预市场所带来的威力要大。

自从日本央行决定踏入负利率区域之后,就已经成为了外汇社群的笑柄。日本央行的政策不但没有让日元变弱,反而令日元和囤积日元的投资者上升。当央行真的干预市场的时候,成功的结果昙花一现,转眼即逝。区区央行怎能敌过市场里的大鳄呢?

随着沮丧的投资者看到他们的仓位快要爆仓(投资者借入便宜的日元来投资别的资产),他们必须减少高风险投资的仓位来避免爆仓。我们从大量外资抛售日本资产可见,据彭博社报道,外国投资者抛售460亿美元等值的日本股票。

日本花了将近三十年与通货紧缩搏斗。他们现在的政策是史无前例。目前,他们正在做指纹认证现金交易。如果他们能有效地禁止现金,负利率就真的能够有效压制通胀的完呢提。再加上“基本收入”制度,或者派钱制度,日元成为厕所的卫生纸的日子指日可待。
日本其中一群大赌客——家庭主妇,当然不会束手就擒。

首先,大量的现金保险箱将从市场上消失。然后,他们将开始将他们手上的“卫生纸”换成其他货币、大宗商品,或者其他容易管理的资产。比特币和数字货币将变得非常有吸引力。日本是实施破坏性的和无效货币政策的先锋。当贬值政策已经实行差不多40年也无效控制通缩,日本政府应该也差不多绝望了。

想投资日元,BitMEX的 比特币/日元 日交割配对即将挂牌。透过XBJ24H,投资者将能够书法他们对日元的观点。

 

以太币: 再生的2013年比特币

在2016年,以太币曾经摸过 0.0372BTC 一颗的高位,上升了超过1700% (17倍)

比特币在2013年4月第一个峰顶是$250,上升1900%。以太币随之下跌超过52%到0.0176BTC,也类似于比特币,比特币从该高位下跌了80%。

 

老币粉都应该对13年所发生的事历历在目,很多投资者都会尝试将比特币的走向应用到以太币来投资,一个80%的回调代表以太币会下摸0.00744 XBT一个,不过因为以太币主要报道的新闻都是正面的,所以我不觉得会下跌到那个阶段。

究竟13年比特币会不会在16年发生在16年呢?我认为比特币在7月减半将会对以太币有决定性的影响,如果比特币会因为减半而发生问题,以太币将会急速上升。

不要低估贪婪和追涨的投资者,不是很多人都在$1000美金买入比特币吗?你可别到那个阶段手痒说要上车呢,你剁手也来不及啊!