力保不失

在中国历史上,北方统治者曾经努力去控制南部和西部的原著民。中国不同的种族,地域和经济证明了没有统治者能够长期执政。由于第二次世界大战后全球变得相对的和平及全球化,中国共产党(CCP)才可以通过提供就业笼络人心以稳定政权。

 

有钱人不生孩子。结果,在二十世纪中的婴儿潮后,全球发达和发展中的人口率已经下降,或将很快降至低于替代率。 替代率定义为在女士生育期内分娩  2.1名儿童的女性。 非洲是一个例外,但不幸的是,他们的消费力不能取代垂死的已发展国家消费者。

习近平的使命是要在全球商品需求下降,中国的工资上涨,人口老化的时期巩固中国共产党政治基础。 任何被认为对中共政权的威胁都是不能容忍的。 在这个世界里 , 99%的人不是共产主义,资本主义或任何其他主义的人,而他们都饿了。

中国必须通过提供就业去养活十亿多的人口。没有就业机会,人民自然会揭竿起义。

这些趋势解释了今年的全国代表大会为何那么重要。 不惜一切代价去维持稳定。 然而,内部货币压力仍持续增长。

耶伦奶奶上周加了  0.25% 的息。 她也没有改变未来的计划。 今年预计会有另外两次加息,一些分析师认为,美联储可能而且应该增加加息步伐。

美联储应该加快调高利率,同时市场耸耸肩。 标准普尔  500指数是唯一重要的经济指标,并没有对上涨的利率产生反应。 耶伦有很多的理由可以疯狂的加息。 现在的利率越高,下一次金融危机爆发时就可以削减得越多。

对于中国来说,美国加息对人民币的压力日益增加。 在正常日子里,这不会是一个问题。 中国人民银行可以在岸提高利率,或允许人民币走软。 然而,这个指示只是全国人民代表大会之前的一个冷静期。

中国人民银行不会在岸大幅收紧利率,以免他们戳破巨大的房地产泡沫。 中国房地产市场是政府批准的宽松计划。 开发商是中国一些最有价值的公司,从经济压力不大的储户中借钱。 然后,开发商从地方政府购买土地,而政府往往是以低于市场价格 “买”农民的土地。

开发商必须在信贷额到期前建好,出售他们的房产并再融资。 如果利率大幅上涨,开发商将被迫大量抛售库存。

超过70%的家庭财富被困在房产上。 每次北京似乎都会让市场得到调整,他们面对广大人口的一波亏损。

六四事件基本上是通货膨胀启发中产阶级去抗议中共。 然而,在1989年,中产阶级大多是教师,2017年他们是数亿房产的主人。 使他们贫穷的话,中共将会面临执政危机。

而另一个贬值物质货币的方法也暂时是不可能的。 人民币需要 20%至  30%的一次性贬值。 但是,这样一个行动,将把中国的经济营造为内外虚弱。 新领导人上台的时候,是不会容忍中国的“弱势”。

彭博社最近的一篇文章说明,习近平并没有放弃驯服中国的。

地方党委第一次使用“否定名单”,包括从贿赂到参与非法建设项目的一切事件,筛选出将在未来五年制定中国政治层次的十九大代表团。 星期一,党报“人民日报”的一篇头版文章赞同这一举动,证明这名单是得到了最高领导人的支持。

 

否定名单 – 通常与贸易谈判有关的概念,其中没有明确提到的任何内容都是允许的,这给了习近平在北京制定关键聚会的另一个工具。 虽然没有确定日期,但是预计将在下半年发生。

当习近平的任期即将结束,十年两度大会对于他希望保持在2022年以后的影响力是至关重要。 在今年的会议上,25位政治局成员里的 11 位,其中包括其最高常委会 7名成员中的 5名,可能会被替换。

比特币提款

中国人民银行要求,大型交易所正在实施新的 KYC 和反洗钱政策。 某些帐户现在必须亲自前往交易所办理身份检查。 如果遵循这一点,这将使客户入场变得昂贵和极其官僚。 最终的结果将是交易所的交易人数减少,而 LocalBitcoins 等 OTC 平台的交易则变得更多。

我相信在国民议会和随后的人民币贬值之后,提款将不会恢复。 但是,最近火币的通知意味着即将撤销撤离禁令。 要提取比特币,客户必须说明并证明币将提到哪里,并说明提币的目的。 “我想逃避弱势人民币”的回应肯定不行。

诚然,政府是通过不必要的官僚主义来消秏国内交易所的资本,让他们本来就薄弱的资产负债表变成破产。 中国人民银行将继续制定新的 KYC / AML 政策,直到他们准备好让比特币再次自由交易。

可惜的是老百姓也不笨的, 他们了解到中国经济体的危机,仍然保持纸比特币的交易。 他们预计通过出售比特币拿回人民币逃生的恐慌性抛售并没有发生。只要囤著这个纸比特,可以让财富免受迫在眉睫的贬值。 这就是价格仍然在  1000美元左右的原因之一。

 

 

石油输出国组织:石油 · 矿工 · 比特币

全球最大的比特币采矿设备运营商和生产商,Bitmain 的首席执行官吴忌寒在比特币扩容问题和石油市场之间做了比较。

石油输出国组织(OPEC)在寻求维持高油价的时候播下了发展美国页岩油的种子。高油价允许工程师探索和钻取更贵的页岩油。随着技术的进步,页岩油的提取价格继续下降。随着石油供应量的增加,价格下滑,加上 OPEC 的囤积居奇令市场持续萧条。

据吴忌寒说,比特币矿工就像 OPEC 。少数玩家控制大多数算力。比特币交易量增加,但网络只能处理有限数量的交易。因此,除了币价以外,交易费用也上涨。

 

比特币矿工很高兴,但是有些用户并不是如此。最新的发展是,一些核心开发人员改变了比特币的基本协议,允许它在不需要大矿工生产的算力也能处理更多的交易。如果这些链下扩容解决方案成功(例如闪电网络 Lighting Network),矿工从交易费中获得的收益可能会下降。

 

您可以将比特币视为类似于黄金或付款网络的价值存储。如果比特币更有价值存储的属性,就不用担心交易的成本。黄金很少用于日常商务。它用于存储大量财富,并用作大额交易的结算货币。所以黄金的流动速度很低。

 

如果比特币更是一个分散的支付网络,那么交易的成本和速度是至关重要的。比特币必须能够与 Visa 和 Mastercard 等信用卡网络竞争,如果要成为真正的支付解决方案。目前比特币是笨重和昂贵的,因此仍未能够跟它们相比。

 

如果 SegWit (隔离见证)和增加区块都没有达到共识,比特币将继续走下坡路,成为另一种形式的抵押品,而这抵押品是昂贵并且很少移动。对许多比特币矿工来说,只要价格保持高位,这是一个完全可以接受的解决方案。鉴于区块已满,交易费用高,价格持续上涨,用户将比特币视为比付款网络更有价值的储存方法。

 

问题是,其他加密的货币能否成为一个有价值,而且便宜又快捷的存储方法。如果另一个电子货币实现这个壮举,它将成为比特币的主要挑战者。到目前为止,没有一个电子货币能威胁比特币。许多人声称以太坊将打败比特币,但它并没有形成与比特币同等的全球化生态。

 

我不知道一群比特币矿工会否从事有争议的硬分叉。但我知道人类是懒惰和贪婪的。无论在各种社交媒体平台上发生什么争论,比特币矿工关心自己的底线。而不做任何事情在短期至中期内不会伤害到他们。

 

比特币硬分叉不会像以太坊那样简单。当时 DAO 灾难需要一个直接的硬叉,但是以太市场市值只有 10 亿美元。比特币价值 170 亿美元。为比特币量身打造的采矿设备、交易所和钱包所投入的资金数量比以太坊多很多。

 

一个失败的硬叉,将会留下一个拥有两位数百分比算力的副链,这不会被认为是一件好事。不同于以太币和经典以太币,新成立的比特币主链和副链的总价值将大大低于比特币分叉前的价值。而以太币从没将自己定位为价值存储或付款协议。它是用于网络应用的燃料费。

 

比特币的价值是其对比其他加密货币的相对稳定性。破坏稳定性,那么其作为加密储备货币的地位将会蒸发。如果出现比特币的挑战者,它肯定不会使用比特币的工作证明算法(POW)。如果新进场的山寨币成功,该挑战者将使所有比特币 ASIC 采矿设备变得毫无价值。

 

吴忌寒是否会赌上其价值十亿美元矿业公司的未来,投资于不利于公司的硬分叉?我猜没有这个可能。

 

Hold The Line

Throughout China’s history, northern rulers struggled to effectively control those to the south and west of them. The varied ethnicities, topography, and economies of China meant that no ruler was able to retain absolute power for long. Due to relative global peace and globalisation since WW2, the Communist Party of China (CCP) has been able to maintain control by bribing the masses with employment.

Rich people don’t have kids. As a result, after the baby boom in the mid-20th century, the global developed and developing population rate has fallen or will soon fall below the replacement rate. The replacement rate is defined as a woman birthing 2.1 children over her productive lifetime. Africa is the one exception, but unfortunately their consumption power cannot replace dying first-world consumers.

Xi Jinping’s mission to solidify the political base of the Communist Party of China occurs at a time when global demand for goods is falling, wages in China are rising, and the population is aging. Any perceived threat to the continuation of the CCP’s rule cannot be tolerated. 99% of humans aren’t communist, capitalist or any other “ist”, they are hungry.

China must feed its billion plus population by providing employment. Without employment, young men transform from docile workers to cannon fodder for skilled orators and politicians.

These trends explain why this year’s National Congress is of extreme importance. Calm must be maintained at all costs. However, internal monetary pressures continue to build.

Grandma Yellen unleashed another 0.25% rate hike last week. She also did not alter the forward guidance. Another two rate hikes are expected this year, and some analysts believe the Fed could and should increase the pace of hikes.

The Fed should raise rates faster while the market shrugs them off. The S&P 500, which is the only economic indicator of importance, has not reacted negatively to rising rates. Yellen has cover to raise more aggressively. The higher rates go now, the more they can be cut when the next financial crisis strikes.

For China, USD interest rate normalisation puts increasing pressure on the CNY. In a normal year, this would not be an issue. The PBOC could raise rates onshore, or allow the CNY to weaken. However the directive is for a calm period before the National Congress.

The PBOC can’t materially tighten rates onshore lest they pop the gargantuan property bubble. The Chinese property market is a government sanctioned ponzi scheme. Developers, which are some of the most valuable companies in China, borrow money from financially repressed savers. The developers then purchase land from local governments, who “buy” land from their peasant subjects at below market rates.

The developer must build, sell, and refinance before the bill comes due for past loans. Should rates rise materially, developers will be forced to dump inventory en masse.

Over 70% of household wealth is trapped in property. Each time it appears that Beijing will allow the market to correct, they relent in the face of sure losses from a wide swath of the population.

Tiananmen Square essentially was an inflation inspired middle class protest against the CCP. However in 1989, the middle class were mostly teachers, in 2017 they are hundreds of millions of property punters. Impoverish them, and the CCP will see its mandate to rule evaporate.

The second option of a material currency devaluation is also off the table for the time being. A 20% to 30% one-off devaluation is needed. However, an action of that magnitude would portray China’s economy as both weak internally and externally. A perceived “weak” China will not be tolerated while the new leadership ascends.

A recent Bloomberg article illustrates that Xi Jinping is not relenting in his dive to tame China.

For the first time local party committees are using “negative lists” — including everything from bribe-taking to involvement with illegal construction projects — to screen delegations to the 19th Party Congress, which will set China’s political hierarchy for the next five years. A front-page article endorsing the moves in the party’s flagship People’s Daily newspaper Monday showed the push has support from the highest levels.

The negative lists — a concept often associated with trade negotiations in which anything not specifically mentioned is allowed — gives Xi yet another tool to shape the key party gathering in Beijing. While no date has been set, it’s expected to occur in the second half of the year.

The twice-a-decade congress is crucial for Xi to secure lasting influence beyond 2022, when his own tenure would be expected to end. At this year’s meeting, 11 of 25 Politburo members — including five of seven members on its supreme Standing Committee — could be replaced.

Bitcoin Withdrawals

Mandated by the PBOC, the large exchanges are implementing new KYC and AML policies. Certain accounts must now travel in person to the exchanges’ offices for physical checks of identity. If followed, this will make client onboarding expensive and extremely bureaucratic. The end result will be less people trading on exchange, and more trading on OTC platforms such as LocalBitcoins.

I believe that withdrawals will not resume until after the National Congress and a subsequent CNY devaluation. However, a recent notice from Huobi implies an imminent lifting of the withdrawal ban. To withdraw Bitcoin, clients must state and prove where the coins will go, and state the purpose of the withdrawal. Responses such as “I want to escape a weak CNY” will certainly not fly.

True to form, the government is saddling exchanges with needless bureaucracy to bankrupt those with weak balance sheets. The PBOC will keep inventing new KYC / AML policies until they are ready to allow Bitcoin to be freely traded again.

Unfortunately Chinese comrades aren’t stupid. They recognise the perilous state of the economy and still hold Bitcoin IOU’s on exchanges. The expected stampede for the exits by selling Bitcoin to withdraw CNY has not happened en masse. Held long enough, this Bitcoin IOU could protect wealth against the imminent devaluation. This is one reason why the price still hovers around $1,000.

OPEC : Oil :: Miners : Bitcoin

Jihan Wu, CEO of Bitmain the world’s largest operator and producer of mining equipment, made an apt comparison between the Bitcoin scaling issue and the oil market.

OPEC in their quest to maintain high oil prices sowed the seeds for American shale oil. The high oil price allowed engineers to explore and drill for more expensive shale oil. Shale oil’s extraction price continues to decline as technology improves. As the supply of oil increased, prices fell, and OPEC’s hold on the market withered.

According to Jihan, Bitcoin miners are like OPEC. A small number of players control the majority of the hashrate. Bitcoin transaction volumes have increased, but the network can only process a finite amount of transactions. Therefore, transaction fees rose alongside the price.

Miners are happy. Some users are not. As a work around, some developers (core) altered the Bitcoin protocol allowing it to process more transactions without the need for a larger miner produced hashrate. If these off-chain scaling solutions are successful (e.g. The Lightning Network), miner’s earnings from transaction fees could decline.

On the margin, either you view Bitcoin more as a store of value akin to gold, or a payments network. If Bitcoin is more a store of value, the price of transactions is of little concern. Gold is rarely used for day to day commerce. It is used to store large amounts of wealth, and as a settlement currency for large notional transactions. Therefore the velocity of gold is low.

If Bitcoin is more a decentralised payments network, then the price and speed of a transaction is paramount. Bitcoin must be able to compete with credit card networks such as Visa and Mastercard if it is to become a real payments solution. Currently Bitcoin is clunky and expensive and is no match to these incumbents.

If neither SegWit nor a block size increase reaches consensus, Bitcoin will continue to travel down the road to becoming another form of money good collateral that is expensive in small quantities to move. To many miners this is a perfectly acceptable solution as long as the price remains high. Given that blocks are full, transaction fees are high, and the price continues to rise, users view Bitcoin more a store of value than a payments protocol.

The question is, can another cryptocurrency become a store of value, and be cheap and fast to send. Should another coin achieve this feat, it will become a major challenger to Bitcoin. To date, no coin is within striking distance of Bitcoin. Many claim that Ether will unseat Bitcoin, but it does not command the same global mindspace as Bitcoin.

Will a group of miners engage in a contentious hard fork, I don’t know. But I do know humans. Humans are lazy and greedy. Regardless of the temper tantrums thrown on various social media platforms, miners care about their bottom line. Doing nothing will not harm them in the short to medium term.

A Bitcoin hard fork will not be as cute and cuddly as Ethereum’s. The Ether market cap was barely $1 billion when the DAO disaster necessitated a face saving hard fork. Bitcoin is worth $17 billion. The amount of money invested in mining equipment, exchanges, and wallets tailored for Bitcoin is orders of magnitude larger than for Ethereum.

A failed hard fork that leaves a minority chain commanding a double digit percent of the network hashing power will not be viewed kindly. Unlike Ether and Ether Classic, the sum of the newly formed majority and minority chains will be drastically lower than the pre-fork value of Bitcoin. Ether never positioned itself as a store of value or a payments protocol. It is fuel for decentralised applications.

Bitcoin’s value is its relative stability vs. other cryptocurrencies. Disrupt that stability and its status as the reserve currency of crypto will evaporate. The challenger that does emerge will certainly not use Bitcoin’s Proof of Work algorithm. If successful, the challenger will render all Bitcoin ASIC mining equipment worthless.

Is Jihan going to stake the future of his Billion dollar mining company on a hard fork that could go pear shaped? No chance.

三位一体: 比特币, 以太币, DAO

奉圣父 (Bitcoin)
圣子 (Ether)
圣灵 (DAO) 的名

— 中本聪的灵魂

比特币,以太币和DAO之间的投资在过去一个月的交易占币圈主导地位。这周四DAO初始发行(ICO)结束。随后,DAO将在二级市场上交易。

自五月初,ETH对比比特币涨幅高达95%和对比美元涨幅91%。比特币兑美元下跌2%。每个DAO代币有0.01 ETH背书。 DAO可能是一个巨大的骗局,但凭借其ETH的增持,持有DAO的投资者已经将投入的资金翻倍了。

最纠结的问题就是应该何时售出DAO。持有DAO越久,在DAO基金的ETH汇出到经批准的项目并被花费的可能性就越大。可以掌握的小东西,胜过没有把握的大东西。 90%的初创企业失败的事实将会拖累DAO持有人,令他们不愿意通过任何计划。

该两种方式套现DAO成为一个“更实在”的货币。当DAO / XBT现货交易所挂牌,持有人可以抛售他们手上的DAO换取比特币。或者精通技术可以使用内置的代码烧DAO,换成ETH。

币圈的投资者大多都是懒人。如果我能以最少的麻烦,现在把它卖掉换成比特币,我不会尝试通过DAO代码来做到这一点。而且燃烧过程还要呆7周的时间。

当DAO投资者获得比特币,他们将出售比特币还是持有比特币?鉴于大多DAO持有人已经习惯于使用电子货币作为资产的一部分,我觉得他们大多都不会将自己的比特币转换成美元。基于资金从DAO流入。对于比特币价格整体有利。

我预测,当DAO挂牌,持有人会选择简单地获取2倍回报,而不是冒险继续投资一堆新创公司。这意味着,比特币上涨,ETH和DAO下跌。

使用比特币杠杆交易LISK

Lisk将会在, 中国时间 五月二十七日晚上八时 挂牌.

你听过LISK了没有?他是近来最热门的山寨币,他的ICO(首次公開募股)筹集了六百万美金,而现在正式公开交易,交易量曾经多于以太币!

从本质上讲Lisk是以太币的山寨品,但脚本语言是JavaScript。无论你是一个超级大牛,或者认为Lisk属于垃圾填埋区的,现在BitMEX提供了一种方法使用比特币投资LISK。

 LSKXBT挂牌

LSKXBT是一种杠杆交易产品,投资者可以只使用比特币去做多或做空Lisk并使用高达3.33x的杠杆。随着流动性提高了杠杆率将会增加。

每个LSKXBT合同价值1 LSK,并以XBT报价。 LSKXBT的基准是Poloniex LSK/ XBT汇率。

LSKXBT不设交割日期。买家将收到Poloniex LSK融资利率(目前定为0%,当Poloniex添加时我们将会启用),并支付XBT融资利率。空仓将会收到Poloniex XBT利率,并支付LSK融资利率。阅读BitMEX无交割合约 — 利率互换了解它是如何工作。

做多 LSKXBT

如果你有一些比特币,你可以去做多LSKXBT。

你要做多1万张LSKXBT合约。目前的价格为0.0001 XBT。一万张LSKXBT合同的比特币价值1 XBT。由于BitMEX提供3.33x的杠杆,你只需要存入30%* 1 XBT或0.3 XBT就可以做多一万张合约。

价格上涨到0.0002 XBT。你的利润是(0.0002 XBT – 0.0001 XBT)*10000张 = 1 XBT。

做空 LSKXBT

如果你有一些比特币,可以做空LSKXBT。而且没有必要借用LSK来做空。这就是投资BitMEX产品的主要优势之一。

你想做空10000张LSKXBT合约。目前的价格为0.0001 XBT。10000张 LSKXBT合约的比特币价值是1 XBT。由于BitMEX提供3.33x的杠杆,你只需要存入 30%* 1 XBT 或 0.3 XBT 就可以做空10000张的合约。

价格下降到0.00005 XBT。你的利润是(0.00005 XBT – 0.0001 XBT)*-10,000合同 = 0.5 XBT。

现在开始投资

要开始投资LISK,你需要的只一个BitMEX帐户和比特币。LISK市场会在明日中国时间晚上8时开始交易(星期五,5月27日)。

注册 开始交易

再次归来的溢价

我们都一段时间没有见过国盘交易价格比外盘交易价格有溢价,不过进几天人民币交易比特币的溢价高见 1.8%. 上年我们曾经见到 溢价高达  2.5% ,之后价格随之涨到 $504,究竟这是不是比特币暴涨的预示呢?

主流思想考虑到中国的资本管制,比特币是合法资金转移的完美工具。然而因为中国现在还有很多漏洞,这个情况还不算是太大可能,如伪造进口单据,刷银联卡或通过EB-5签证计划的投资者可以合法汇款出国投资。

 

此外,我在这里和几个在纽约有兴趣接触比特币的基金管理人谈两嘴,有趣的是,他们告诉我,他们的客户只愿意支付75个基点左右的汇款成本,明显看见资金汇出中国有其他更便宜,简单的方式。现在比特币接近2%的溢价,滑点,市场影响成本和交易手续费,可见将比特币作为汇款工具并不是太过实际。

说了这么多,难道中国对于比特币的兴趣又回来了吗?这也不太可能,因为市场现在的焦点都放在了以太币和DAO上。一个更合理的可能就是人民币贬值的预期了。自中国人民银行在1月贬值后,市場開始期望夏季就會是另一波貶值來臨的時候。

当中国人民银行正式宣布貶值,备受欢迎的波动將會回到比特币。鉴于六月和九月合约的价格便宜的基础上,投資的建议是,做多6月或9月並以XBTUSD对冲。因此,如果我们看到一个强大,突然的贬值,我们应该期待在比特币出现可观的涨幅。顺祝交易愉快!

The Holy Trinity: Bitcoin, Ether, and DAO

In the name of the Father (Bitcoin)
The Son (Ether)
And the Holy Ghost (DAO)

— The gospel according to Satoshi

The trading dynamics between Bitcoin, Ether, and DAO dominated the trading landscape over the past month. This Thursday the DAO Initial Coin Offering (ICO) ends. Subsequently, DAO will be available to trade on the secondary market.

Since the beginning of May, ETH is up 95% in Bitcoin terms and 91% USD terms. Bitcoin is down 2% in USD terms. Each DAO token holds 0.01 ETH. DAO could be a colossal flop, but by virtue of its ETH holdings, holders have already doubled their money.

The hard decision is when to sell. The longer one holds DAO after the ICO, the greater the chance a portion of the ETH in the fund will be sequestered towards an approved project. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. The fact that 90% of startups fail will weigh on DAO holders’ willingness to take a chance by holding DAO for a long period of time.

The are two ways to cash in DAO for a “harder” currency. When DAO/XBT lists on spot exchanges, holders can dump their DAO for Bitcoin. Or the more technically savvy can use the inbuilt code to burn DAO for ETH.

Crypto traders are lazy folk. If I could sell it now for Bitcoin with minimal hassle, I won’t try to do it via the DAO code. There might even be bugs in the implementation that makes it impossible to burn DAO tokens, without a major upgrade. At the very least, it will take 7 weeks after launch.

Once holders obtain Bitcoin, will they sell Bitcoin for USD or hold Bitcoin? Given that the average DAO holder is already comfortable with holding a portion of their assets in a crypto currency, I doubt they will convert their Bitcoin into USD. This will lead to upward pressure on the Bitcoin price.

I expect Bitcoin to sag and ETH to pump during the last days of the DAO ICO. Buy the rumor, sell the fact. I predict that once DAO lists, holders will opt for the easy 2x return rather than risk their gains on a bunch of startups that may be scams. That means Bitcoin up, ETH and DAO down.

CNY Premium on the Rise

It has been a while since we have seen BTCCNY trading at a premium to BTCUSD, but now we are seeing numbers climbing up to 1.8%. Late last year, we saw premiums driving up over 2.5% which lead to the infamous bull run to $504. Is this the first sign of a renewed interest in Bitcoin?

The mainstream school of thought is that given the capital controls in China, Bitcoin is the perfect tool to legally move money out of China. However, that is unlikely the case given the number of loopholes available to the Chinese, such as faking import invoices, swiping your UnionPay card 200x or even legally investing in businesses in the US via the EB-5 visa program. Furthermore, I spoke with a few funds here in New York that were interested in dabbling in Bitcoin as a way of investing in the US for Chinese customers. What was interesting was that they informed me their clients would only be willing to pay about 75bps as cost, given other ways of moving cash out of China is cheaper and ‘simpler’. With a premium close to 2%, slippage, market impact cost, and trading fees, you can start to see that it becomes quite expensive to convert CNY into USD using Bitcoin.

Having said that, could it be renewed interest in Bitcoin from the Chinese? Unlikely given the state of the market right now and with Ethereum and DAO taking all the spotlight. A more plausible theory is related to USDCNH and devaluation expectations. After the PBOC took its break of devaluations in January, there is a renewed expectation that we could be seeing some this coming Summer.

When an official announcement is made from the PBOC, much-welcomed volatility will come back into Bitcoin. Given the cheap basis on June and September contracts, the trade recommendation is to long either June or September and hedge with the XBTUSD swap. Thus if we see a strong, sudden deval we should expect a good FOMO to occur in Bitcoin. Happy Trading!

 

Introducing: DA BlockMEX

mo-money-mo-problems

In November 2015, BitMEX rebranded to BlockMEX and raised 21 million in a Series A from FOMO Capital. After almost 6 months, BlockMEX has burned most of the money and is raising its Series B.

Arthur: Hey Garry, thanks for seeing me for coffee. How has it been?

VC: It’s going well. I’m looking forward to the summer. Taking the family to a Bali for a nice vacation.

Arthur: Bali is great. I just got back from a one month yoga retreat in Ubud. I wouldn’t be caught dead near Kuta these days. It’s totally overrun with Australian teenagers.

VC: I totally hear ya. We have this sick villa in Seminyak near Potato Head. So what’s going on with BlockMEX?

Arthur: Things have been going great. We now have over 10 million customers.

VC: Wow, that’s amazing. What are trading volumes like?

Arthur: We don’t record that data. It’s not relevant to our business. It’s all about new user signups. We aggressively pay to acquire users via referral bonuses and an affiliate program.

VC: Oh really? So you have a negative gross margin business?

Arthur: Yes.

VC: As an exchange I would have thought that trading volumes are the most important metric. That’s what you earn fees off of right?

Arthur: Well that’s how it worked in old finance. In the Blockchain world, it’s all about signing up a lot of users. We will worry about trading volumes once everyone has Blockchain shares. But, we have just shifted focus again to Digital Assets, and renamed to Digital Asset Blockchain Mercantile Exchange – DA BlockMEX.

VC: DA BlockMEX huh.

Arthur: It’s pronounced DAaaaa BlockMEX. Like a rapper would.

VC: Ok, got it. Digital Assets, you mean shitcoins?

Arthur: Well I wouldn’t call them shitcoins. Just other digital currencies besides Blockchain shares. It will open up a true path to actual revenue and profitability. We call it the Pump ‘n Dump method. It has three phases:

Accumulation, Phase 1: Identify the most attractive new digital assets. Basically we canvass senior management and see if anyone is a bag-holder in any coin, is a lead developer on a coin, or has previously accumulated a large stake in a coin.

Pump, Phase 2: We “accidentally” leak a user interface that shows the new coin being added. This causes the trading community to FOMO into the coin because they believe that once the coin is offered to our 10 million users it will spike higher. We then promptly deny that we will ever list said coin.

Dump, Phase 3: We list the coin and senior management dumps their holdings onto our users causing the price to crash. DA BlockMEX gets a 50% cut of any profits a senior manager makes.

VC: Wow, sounds like a scam.

Arthur: You just don’t understand. This is Blockchain.

VC: All that sounds promising. What else did you spend the 21 million we gave you on?

Arthur: First we had to acquire and retain top talent. As I mentioned before we scooped up all the best PHP developers from MtGox. On the business and trading side, we hired Nick Leeson and brought in a bunch of ex Long Term Capital Management traders. They really understand risk management.

To foster the right office culture, Tuesday night is Hookers and Blow night. We go to Wanchai get some 8-balls, viagra, and have at it. Friday night is Models and Bottles night. You won’t see us at Volar with anything less than a Jeroboam of Dom P.

VC: And the rest? 21 million dollars is a lot of money to spend in 6 months.

Arthur: Well an entire floor office at the IFC is quite expensive. Also running a negative gross margin business gets expensive at scale.

VC: Ok, so how much are you looking to raise? and at what valuation for your Series B?

Arthur: 100 million dollars at a 1 billion dollar valuation.

VC: So that would make DA BlockMEX the first unicorn Blockchain shares startup? That’s a punchy valuation. FOMO Capital will definitely lead the round based on your strong traction, but the fundraising environment is cooling a bit. I am going to speak with Elizabeth Holmes at Theranos. I hear she has some extra cash laying around, and she’s bloody smart.

币界新闻择要 – 五月十七日

你的钱包够冷不?

本周末,Gatecoin遭到黑客攻击。损失可能高达二百万美圆。该公司首席执行官的Aurelien Menant,是我的朋友,也是一个伟大的企业家。我敢肯定,他们正在尽一切可能的方法筹集资金,并令交易所在最短时间内重新上线。

用户资金的安全是我们的首要任务。我想籍此重申BitMEX的安全策略:

没有热钱包

对于比特币交易所的最常见的攻击媒介是通过其热钱包。热钱包一个可以透过互联网连接到电子货币钱包私钥的钱包。热钱包允许用户无需经过人手处理来体现比特币。

BitMEX采用多重签名钱包客户资金安全。没有私钥是存放在能连接互联网的计算机上。 每次提款必须又BitMEX 3个伙伴中的其中2个签署才能提现。如果有人骇进 BitMEX.com,他们将无法盗取任何客户资金。

许多交易所使用冷热混合钱包,用户每日有提现资金限制,而且热钱包必须经人手增值。这是一个很好的策略,但它显著增加了复杂性 – 是安全的大敌。Gatecoin是使用冷热混合的方法,但是骇客能够将存款转到热钱包。

每日合并提现

因为所有取款必须由3个的合作伙伴其中2个人工处理,取款只能每天一次在13:00 UTC处理。这使我们能够手动查看每个提款。在某些情况下,用户的行反常,我们会亲自联系用户重新确认他们的提现。

实时审核

BitMEX会监视内部记录,在比特币块练上的资金。我们使用许多不同的数据源。如果发生冲突,交易将会被暂停,并通知我们的合作伙伴。

BitMEX的交易引擎在每个交易会确认整个系统的零和。这通常是一个非常耗时的过程,但在BitMEX使用银行级的技术,令我们能够快速验证每一个交易。即使是分毫只差,我们的系统也会暂停。

我们非常重视安全性。上述政策是币圈里面所见最严谨的。事实上,BitMEX是100%使用多重的钱包和100%离线钱包的第一个交易所。尽管很多投资者对于快速提现都有要求,但是我们仍坚持,因为我们知道漠视资金安全的后果,不少用户也非常了解我们的立场,虽然不太便利,但是能够安心地将资金存在BitMEX已经十分满足。

固定利率 和 浮动利率 的对比

近来我们挂牌了XBTUSD无交割互换合约,是时候为固定与浮动利率来个简单的介绍。期货合约和利率互合约是相同属性的投资工具,但是不同的就是潜在的资产怎么的方法来出资。

投资期货或者互换合约的原因对于投资者来说的好处就是他们可以在没有拥有潜在资产的情况下透过资产价格浮动获利。在合约到期的时候,必须要有人愿意用现金作为平仓者的对手,收取或提供对应潜在资产所产生的利润或亏损。

现金是有成本的,你可以不买比特币,反之出借你的比特币来赚取利息,而期货或掉期合约所产生的溢价或日资金流费用则能够补偿在现实中现金的机会成本。
期货合约有固定到期日。如果我卖出一个月的期货合约,我的美元则需要被锁起同样的时长。作为卖家,我需要赚取同样利润以弥补我锁起了的美元的机会成本。回报率是固定的,因为到期日是固定的,原理就跟债卷类似。如果你借了$ 95,你需要在一年后你要付回$100,那么基本上你的固定利率就是5%。

BitMEX掉期合约是没有到期日。因此,如果我做空我的利率互换合约,资金锁起的时间就不能被预先知道了。作为卖家,我需要在我持仓的时段获得该时段对应的利率,就像一个浮动利率的贷款一样,银行借你一笔钱,不过每个月你需要付的利息都是浮动的。

相同 却有所不同

XBTUSD的持仓者根据他们的仓位每天获得或收取相应的利息。他们支付或获得的利率就是根据当天的浮动费率而定,并乘以当日当日的现货价格。

想象一下,你持有了XBTUSD掉期合约2日。本质上XBTUSD掉期合约可以分解为两个即将到期的日交割XBTUSD期货合约。利率是根据每日的溢价来计算出来,所以持有掉期合约两天两张日交割合约类似。

利率套利

假设我们能够投资两样东西:比特币 日交割合约 (第一天,第二天),而XBTUSD掉期合约能够持有两日,XBTUSD掉期合约的日费率为多少才会令XBTUSD和两张期货合约没有套利的空间呢?

现货 = $100
第一日 日期货合约 = $110
第二日 日期货合约价格= $127

0 – 1 日期货合约对应溢价

$110 / $100 - 1 = 10%

1 – 2 日期货合约对应溢价

$127 / $110 - 1 = 15%

利率互换合约第一天的费率必须为10%,第二天的费率为15%。

假设你买入掉期合约,你在买入合约的时候知道第一天的日资金费率,然而第二天的资金费率并未能够知道,如果你第二天的资金费率是大于15%,那么你拿着第二日的期货合约则有较低的成本,反之如果费率小于15%,那么你拿着掉期合约的成本则较低了。

固定和浮动利率套利能够透过使用BitMEX掉期合约和其他期货合约平台来进行。

合成美金

我在我的博客讲过负利率政策好几次,也提及了他对比特币的影响。我想概括的是,使用比特币,大家可以使用电子的方式存储的现金,避免制度化的全球盗窃发生在自己的身上。

对于比特币来说,对于存户最大的问题就是价格波动。由于美元是世界储备货币,储户希望能够将自己的资金转换成合成美金。通过XBTUSD,BitMEX终于可以创造这样的产品。

 

合成美金是什么?

我会将BitMEX合成美金以BUSD表示,跟正常美金一样,BUSD是透过资产背书,USD是透过美联署债卷背书,那么BUSD就是透过比特币和XBTUSD空仓背书。

每张XBTUSD价值$1美元等值的比特币,买入现货比特币并做空XBTUSD等于持有合成美金。希望了解更多有关合成美金?看看 剖晰: 建立合成美金 。

假设比特币价值$500,建立500BUSD,你会买入1个比特币,并做空500张XBTUSD。

投机BUSD

BitMEX的任务是让投资者能够使用电子货币投资人和资产,全球很多资产都是美元主导价格,BUSD作为保证金货币让投资者能够使用比特币投资全球资产的同时,自己保证金的资产不受价格风险影响

 

想象一下在BitMEX投资原油期货,利润,亏损,保证金等都是使用BUSD计价交易。这是BitMEX的未来。使用合成法币结构,BitMEX可以创建主要法定货币的合成版本,并允许更多的资产类别的投资,同时避免比特币价格风险。

DAO 加密股权

“DAO 去中心化自律组织”的众筹获得了超过1亿美金,超过12.5%的以太币资金已经换成了DAO,成为了全球筹款额最大的众筹活动。

DAO是什么?

DAO 代表 “去中心化自律组织”. 而我们一直说的就是 “The DAO” 而有关资料是存放在 DAOHub. “The DAO” 是一家去中心化的风投基金,DAO的投票权就是由DAO代币持有人决定,计划能够透过持股人提交并对于是否同意执行来投票

为了建立DAO基金,初始投币募股(ICO)现在正在进行。每个DAO代币由0.01 ETH背书。筹集到的ETH将用于投票来支持各种项目。股权更多,影响力更大。

项目提交后可以进行投票。公众建议的一个突出的例子是Slock.it。 Slock.it令物联网门锁接受的块练上的付款。

初始投币募股?

100 DAO透过1ETH建立。任何从以太币地址发出到指定地址的资金就能获得DAO。

募股期由现在直到五月28日,价格会慢慢提升到0.015ETH,募股期结束后能够在市场上购买

DAO的价值

1 DAO == 0.01 ETH 无论你给了多少钱来买. 代表如果你在0.015ETH买入1个DAO,DAO也只是价值0.01ETH

DAO在ETH方面有内在价值,因为DAO持有人将DAO回收成为0.01 ETH。然而,有几个注意事项:

  • 当计划被通过后,ETH就会透过毁灭DAO来换取
  • 毁灭DAO大概需要7个星期,过程:
    • 建立计划,并将自己定为策划人
    • 呼叫`splitDAO()` 建立你的DAO (在这一个时候,未分配的代币将会送转)
    • 等待28日来完成DAO的建立
    • 建立计划将以太币转到你的ETH地址 (2周的时间)
    • 执行你的DAO

投资者心理学

贪婪是显而易见的。投资者都抢着自己ETH转换成他们认为将是下一个最热门的山寨比。股票IPO(招股)的投资者表现出类似的行为。银行分配给他们的客户,使他们能够将这些低估的IPO在二级市场赚一笔。

然而股权IPO和ICO的分别是稀缺性。一家公司提供股权的有限的。一个热门的IPO甚至供不应求,有源源不绝的资金涌入购买,让二级市场成为流行的地方。

然而ICO却没有系觉醒,任何人将ETH转到DAO就会获得相应的比例的代币,ICO普遍挂牌后都会上升,然而以前的ICO规模都不大,大部分都低于500万美金,DAO已经有超过这个数值的20倍了,这个ICO大得令整个山寨币市场交易额都普遍下跌,同时ETH的借贷利率都因为供应下降而随之上升

 

这个是P网(Poloniex) ETH借贷利率的时线

对于DAO投机者的问题是,如果买家都在ICO买入,那么谁做接盘侠呢?如果挂牌后没有暴跌,那么挂牌后大家都会赶着出货,如果DAO/ETH高过0.01,那么投资者都会在二级市场出货了。

DAO的特点代表市场价格不会比0.01ETH高很多。

在未来的3-6个月假设当DAO计划得到资金后获得回报,然后再假设回报真的会回到DAO上(很大的假设…),这才会令DAO价格上涨。但是到那个时候参与ICO的早已套现了。

BitMEX DAOETH 合约

ICO 市场才是在萌芽的阶段,其他圈钱的计划肯定在DAO的成功后源源不绝的推出市场,BitMEX建立了DAOETH让持有比特币的投资者能够在DAOETH在市面流通前猜测他的价格。

每张DAOETH合约乘上1个比特币就获得了合约的价值(双币种化),如果DAOETH价值0.01ETH,那么合约价值就是0.01BTC。所有盈亏保证金都是比特币,而合约提供的杠杆为3.33倍

DAOETH会在2016年6月24日交割,即ICO完结后1个月,交割价格将会从P网提取。其后我们会挂牌无交割的DAOXBT合约,DAO可能会成为山寨币圈的新星。

以太币和比特币的对垒

上周我谈到的上三角再次被测试,看到市场继续有强力的支撑。我们现在正围绕3000 CNY据点徘徊。只盯着比特币的图表,这个关键心理价位应该在接下来的一周后突破,然后大概2周以后,凡这个三角形在$467接合,很可能继续向上延伸。

然而,我们在玩一些其他的因素,现在。 ETH和XBT表现出较强的负相关性之间的价格走势,因投资者在两个币种之间转换来抓住市场异常现象所带来的机遇。

其中第一个是有用户看见OKCOIN上写着ETH余额的截图,暗示OKCoin即将列以太币为交易产品(在红迪Reddit流传后,ETH瞬间暴涨10%)。

其次,如上所述,DAO项目集资将12.5%的ETH锁定了,供应量的萎缩导致价格和借贷利率上涨。这是相当利好ETH(直到交易者焚烧自己的DAO换取ETH),作为一个投资者,现在可以买到ETH,锁上0.5%日利率,然后对冲相关仓位。同时因为比特币和以太币的反响关系,我认为整体上比特币上攻的机会不大。

交易建议:如果你还没有这个教训还没有,那么有没有时间比现在更好:买传闻卖事实。随着OkCoin没有正式宣布ETH上市呢,这是买ETH的好机会。通过进入上BitMEX做多ETHXBT互换合约可以从上攻的优势获利,还能够赚取现在的日融资费率。密切留意OKCoin的宣布!到时候就要开始平仓了。

风险披露

BitMEX是不是持牌财务顾问。本快讯中所提供的信息为意见,不是事实。比特币是高波动的交易工具,并且可以在任何方向快速移动。 BitMEX不负责任何因为按照这个建议做成的交易亏损。

为什么XBTUSD是你的选择

usain-bolt

XBTUSD是一种杠杆合约,允许投资者在比特币/美元使用高达100倍的杠杆。许多BitMEX的投资者都熟悉现货,保证金和期货的交易。这篇文章将解释为什么XBTUSD是一个你的最佳选择。

以下是XBTUSD,现货,保证金和期货之间的比较矩阵。

种类 杠杆 交割 实物结算
XBTUSD 高达100倍
现货
现货融资杠杆
期货合约

XBTUSD 对比 现货

现货投资的投资者必须要为仓位的大小使用相等额度的资金来建仓,不能有任何杠杆或者如果你没有持有比特币的话就不能做空了。 XBTUSD是一个P2P的产品;可以自由多空。而且并没有实物交割,所以能够杠杆和做空。

想象一下,你想买入 100 个比特币$ 500。如果你是现货交易,你必须有$50,000。使用XBTUSD,您只需要持 1 个比特币作为保证金。

想象一下,你想卖出 100 个比特币。如果现货交易,你必须有100比特币。使用XBTUSD,您只需要 1 个比特币作为保证金。

XBTUSD 对比 融资杠杆

保证金交易或现货杠杆交易是一种热门的投资方法。你会在现货市场交易,但是你会先借入美金或比特币来做多做空。

同样因为比特币和美元仍需要实物结算,提供的杠杆不可能很高。最受欢迎的 比特币/美元 保证金交易平台,Bitfinex,仅提供3.33x 的最大杠杆。

由于XBTUSD是P2P的合约,并不需要实物交割,有效杠杆可以更高。 XBTUSD的最大杠杆是100倍。

XBTUSD 对比 期货

技术上来说,XBTUSD是掉期合约,买卖合约的投资者互相交换利率差来投资比特币的涨跌,下图表示了利率互换的模式,详细的模式请参阅 BitMEX无交割合约 — 利率互换 。

Swaps Boxes And Arrows

XBTUSD和期货交易也没有实物交收。这样一来,两者都可以提供很高的杠杆。

期货合约的一个缺点是他们都有交割日。许多比特币投资者喜欢高杠杆,但不希望自己的仓位在任意日期到期。此外,以适应各种时间偏好的投资者,挂牌了多个合约亦令流动性分散到不同合约上。

由于利率交换结构,XBTUSD不具有的到期日。投资者能够将仓位持有,直到它被平仓,由于不同时长的合约流动性都融合在一个合约里面,这个合约的流动性比其他期货合约更高。

概括

如果你想投资比特币的未来价值,BitMEX XBTUSD合约是理想的选择。因为它具有高杠杆率,而且不会交割。